Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - The Daily Reckoning - The Dog That Didn't Bark (Mogambo Guru)

Firmian 06.04.2004, 20:21	The Daily Reckoning - The Dog That Didn't Bark (Mogambo Guru) Thread gesperrt
	-->The Dog That Didn't Bark The Daily Reckoning London, England Monday, 5 April 2004 ------------------- * On the Road to Ruin... whee! Dow up 97 points... * Watch out... the stars tell us stocks may rise... or fall... Gold down $6.50... * More jobs!? More from our favorite columnist... and just more! ------------------- Let's see, where were we? Oh yes... on the Road to Ruin... And what a pleasant drive it is! The jobs are finally beginning to show up - 308,000 of them, says the Labor Department. Stocks rose on the news... Everything is beautiful in its own way - even the road to ruin. It is like admiring the beautiful mountain views from a convertible, just before you drive off a cliff. Let us not go there just yet. First, we turn our faces to the stars. If we cannot trust them, what hope is there? Our friend, Veronique, publishes an investment newsletter based on astrology. Her recommendations are up nearly 300% over the last 19 months, she tells us. Reading her latest issue, we find that we are entering a new cycle: "The period from April 4th to August 4th might be less attractive for stocks than it has been since March of '03... The end of the month [of April] will be volatile; it is difficult and dangerous to guess in which direction prices will go. In effect, we have two cycles, both positive and negative, in the medium term. One is as vigorous as the other." The twinkling stars give the sailor a sure course, but alas, the investor has to make his way the best he can. His skies are always cloudy. So, let us try to remember how we got on this road in the first place. We recall Minsky's dictum: stability breeds instability. So safe and secure have Americans felt, they saw little danger in spending money - especially not when their most revered economists told them that spending was good for the economy. Over the last 50 years, they have built such a proud tower of debt that it is likely to fall over at any time. If that were all there was to it, our Day of Reckoning would be a picnic. But there are other things to reckon with. Our favorite columnist, Thomas Friedman, hardly lets a week pass without touting the benefits of democracy, nation building and the empowerment of women. We would normally dismiss these notions as hollow words from an empty mind. But the fact that Friedman is so insistent about them makes us wonder. Maybe they are not as harmless as they seem - maybe they are just signposts on the road to ruin. "It's all very well to talk about empowering women," said a neighbor over the weekend."But when women go out, get jobs, and stop raising children, the whole society seems to fall apart. Crime, divorce, social problems... we've seen all these things in France since women's roles began to change. And the worst of it is that the birthrate falls. The only nation in Europe - and it is barely in Europe - that produces enough children to remain at replacement level is the Ukraine. Fat lot of good it is to empower women if the result is that the whole race disappears." In the paper last week, scientists speculated that the world was going through a period of mass extinction, similar to the Ice Age, when thousands of species are said to have died out. We doubt the human race, or Europeans, will be erased. But we can't help but wonder. While women in the West slack off, those in China, India and dozens of smaller countries are adding new citizens as if they were cell phones coming off an assembly line. That these new proletarians will take more and more of the world's decent-paying jobs seems almost inevitable. Relatively speaking, incomes in America and Western Europe should fall - just when Americans most need money to repay their debts and pay for their retirements. At the very same time, public retirement systems depend on an influx of new workers to pay the living expenses of the geezers. "We're trapped," said our friend."France has had several waves of immigration - from Germany, from Poland, from Russia and from Italy. All these immigrants integrated themselves quickly. But these immigrants from Africa... both the muslims from the North and the blacks from the South... don't integrate very well. They seem to make social problems worse. But because we don't have enough children to keep the system solvent, we depend on these immigrants to pay for our retirements. If we don't let them in, our economic system falls apart. If we do let them in, our society is destroyed." Growing old... in debt... facing the greatest competitive threat since the advent of the Industrial Revolution, with bankrupt retirement programs and mass immigration from strange cultures - you'd think that would be enough. But wait... there's more. "Oil production is going down," said an executive from the French oil giant, Total, on Friday."It looks like your Mr. Hubbert was right, after all. Oil production worldwide seems to be peaking out. Yes, you can get more out of the ground, using modern processes. But it is much more expensive. And it doesn't make up for the easy oil we've been pumping for the last 50 years." Americans use about a quarter of the world's oil production. All of a sudden, they find they have to compete with foreigners for it. As standards of living rise in India, China and elsewhere... people are going to use more oil. "This huge increase in the demand for oil comes at the worse possible time," said our friend,"just when supplies are heading down. The economy of the West has depended not just on oil... but on cheap oil. It will be interesting to see what happens when the real price of oil goes up." Very interesting. We turn to Eric for more news: ------------ Eric Fry in Lower Manhattan... - The"jobless recovery," may it rest in peace... Although our dear departed friend spent a very brief time on this orb, his impact was unmistakable. Thanks to the jobless recovery, interest rates plummeted to generational lows, thereby facilitating simultaneous bull markets in bonds, stocks, housing and... most importantly... debt-financed consumption. We will miss our dear friend. - Friday morning, the U.S. Labor Department announced that nonfarm payrolls jumped 308,000 in March, well above expectations of 122,000. The job-counters at the Labor Department also"found" another 87,000 new jobs in January and February that they hadn't noticed the first time around. All told, the economy is 395,000 jobs better off than we thought. - But all may not be as rosy as it seems."Here," writes colleague Dan Denning over at Strategic Investment,"is the grisly, income-disinflationary truth:"Average hourly earnings in retail trade for March 2004 were $11.99 - DOWN from February by.05 cents and UP only 0.75% from March 2003. Average weekly earnings in retail trade for March 2004 were $364.50 - DOWN 1% from February of 2004 and UP just.09% from March 2003. Bottom Line: More service jobs, fewer hours worked, anemic if not falling hourly and weekly income levels for those service jobs. And this is GOOD news?" - Yes indeed, the jobless recovery is dead and gone. But investors spent no time in mourning on Friday (he wouldn't have wanted it that way). Instead, they conducted a kind of national wake - a raucous affair where everyone dumped buckets-full of cash into the stock market. - The Dow Jones Industrials Average rose 97 points to 10,471, while the Nasdaq Composite leapt 2.1% to 2,057. For the week, the Dow gained 2.5% and the Nasdaq surged 4.9%. Dollar-buyers also partied hearty on Friday, as the greenback soared more than 2% versus the euro to $1.211. - Despite the celebratory mood on Wall Street, some folks were simply too torn up by the death of the jobless recovery to participate in the merrymaking. Bond investors broke out their hankies as long-dated Treasury bonds plummeted, pushing up the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 4.14% from 3.89% the previous day. And even within the jubilant stock market itself, the interest-rate sensitive sectors were"hanging crêpe." Stocks like mortgage lender Countrywide Financial and homebuilder Pulte Corp. tumbled 5% or more. - Gold also tumbled. In a world of job creation and rising interest rates, gold seems to many folks like a luxury they can ill afford. The newly irrelevant metal fell $6.30 Friday to $422.50 an ounce. - Interestingly, gold seemed extremely relevant to investors just one day before the jobs report. Thursday, the gold price jumped to a 15-year high of $432 an ounce. We suspect we have not heard the last from this contrary precious metal. - But the main question now before the House is whether Friday's celebratory mood on Wall Street will yield to angst over rising interest rates. The growth in jobs prompted warnings from numerous economists that the Federal Reserve will rethink its accommodative interest-rate policy. -"I am more concerned about the implications as regards the Fed," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak."The Fed is likely to raise rates in August, possibly earlier, and markets don't rally during rate hiking cycles." - But Donald Straszheim, president of Straszheim Global Advisors counters,"We will see some upward pressure on interest rates eventually, but not enough to stall the recovery or hurt the gains in earnings. The fed funds rate is at 1 percent. Even if the rate doubled, it would still be low." - Then again, maybe the March jobs number was a one-time fluke. At the risk of stating the obvious - a Daily Reckoning specialty - one month's strong jobs report does not a trend make. We'll need to see few more"Marches" to get the job engine running in high gear. And clearly, we'll need to see the job engine humming if we are to have any hope of strengthening our national balance sheet. -"Some are dangerous illusions; others are welcome," your Paris editor, Bill Bonner, observed in this space in early February."When your wife tells you she loves you, you might as well believe it as though it were Holy Writ. What do you gain by questioning motives or deconstructing meaning? -"Every illusion has its price, of course. You will pay as dearly for a chimera of love as for all others... but you will pay in kisses and caresses, a currency better spent than saved. Yet other illusions are far more costly and fatal... -"At The Daily Reckoning, money is our beat," your Paris editor continued."And so we focus on America's leading economic illusion-du-jour: Deficits don't matter. Here once again, we climb a pile of bones to get a clearer view. This is not the first time a nation has gone head over heels into debt... The British Empire was built on debt... -"The new system was slow to catch on in America. Thomas Jefferson was against it. In 1789, in a letter to James Madison, he wondered whether 'one generation of men has a right to bind another.' His answer was no....Jefferson concluded: 'No generation can contract debts greater than may be paid during the course of its own existence.'" - However, subsequent American politicians have adopted a slightly more liberal definition of"existence." The modern attitude toward debt, roughly stated, is that no government should amass debts greater than can be paid before Man's extinction upon the earth. -"Budget deficits and debt finance are not an alternative way of financing government expenditures," former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers said recently."They are a way of deferring tax increases or subsequent expenditure cuts at substantial cost in interest and ultimately in the allocation of national resources." - Fiscal probity... may it rest in peace. ------------ Bill Bonner, back in London... * The U.S. added jobs faster than at any time in the last 4 years, says the Labor Department. What to make of this latest development? Are we wrong about everything, dear reader? About stocks topping out... about the migration of jobs to India and China... about debt, the dollar, and America's economic calamity? Maybe we misread the stars... or the map. Maybe we shouldn't drink so much. Maybe we're not on the road to ruin after all. Instead, we're on the road to glory. Yeah, we're on the road to glory... and there is no stopping us. Stocks will go up from here to kingdom come. Houses will become more valuable every year, so consumers can continue 'to take out equity' for all eternity. And all over the world, people will always want to lend us money... and we will never have to pay it back. Maybe you can have all boom and no bust... all gain and no pain... all A's without studying... growth without saving... Resurrection without Crucifixion. Gosh... we hope so. *** Thomas Friedman is remarkable. No sooner had he solved the problems in Mesopotamia (his advice: more "caring... nurturing" troops, much more money) then he went to India. There, too, he saw the problem and had the same solution: more democracy... reform (a term that seems to work in any situation)... empower women! And today brings yet more advice - this time for Mexico. What does Mexico need to do? We can barely wait to find out. "Revolution," says Friedman..."a reform revolution." Our breathing stops. We are awed by the monumental imbecility of it."Reform" we can imagine, dimly."Revolution," vividly. But we can't imagine the two together anymore than we can imagine a jellyfish mating with bobcat. What strange and horrible fruit would such a union produce? We read on to find out. But even Friedman is stumped. His words go nowhere. Having put the two creatures in the same cage, he can't seem to get them to do anything. Lamely, he resorts to his favorite remedy: raise taxes and spend more money. "It is hard to stay competitive when you collect the lowest percentage of taxes among leading Western economies," he writes. Again, we can hardly draw a breath... We know of no case where raising taxes increased competitiveness. Like 'revolutionary reform' and 'honest politician,' the ideas seem at odds with each other. 'Oxymoronic,' we might say, if we wanted to impress someone. Taxes are a cost. How can you raise costs... while cutting prices? Does he just make this stuff up as he goes along? --------------------- The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: Mogambo on Monday! In today's episode: How did we get here, our hero wonders? From whence came"the current Fed idea of massive and irresponsible increases in Fed credit"... and how could the Fed, chaired by a former gold bug, get it so very, very wrong? THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK by the Mogambo Guru The Fed has screwed up, massively. And the result is, the United States is headed down the path to economic ruination. If you want a good explanation why, then look no further than the Wayne Angell article in the Wall Street Journal last Thursday, entitled"The Rubin Recession." This Angell character was a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 1986 to 1994. So you would think that he would have a pretty good idea what he was talking about when he is talking about economics. But then you'd be wrong, sort of. The first sentence of the article sets the tone, as Angell blames the recession that started in"the third quarter of 2001" on - and hold onto your hat because it is going to comically jump up off of your head when you hear this - "the Clinton administration's attempt to pay down the federal debt." This is the first I've heard of that! And if you have been paying attention to the accumulation of government debt, then this will no doubt be a surprise for you, too! So I know that this where I have to do a little research, because I'm sure that you are not going to take my word for it, as Angell is a former Fed governor and a big shot, writing in the Wall Street Journal and advising important rich people, and I am just an angry, crazy man writing with a crayon on the wall and begging for spare change from people going into the mall, even though I am pleading, "Please take my word for it! Please!" So I grudgingly get up off of my big, fat butt with a lot of whining and complaining, and I trudge over to where I keep some graphs, still whining and complaining, and I dig around in there awhile, and then I get tired and after awhile I forget why I am there. Then I come back and sit down and read what I wrote, and then I remember why I went over there in the first place, and then I do a little swearing and then, with a little more whining and complaining, go back, and finally, finally, I locate the graph of Treasury debt. I blow the dust off of it and hold it up to the light. Okay, admittedly from about 2000 until the third quarter of 2001 the accumulated debt does not go up that much. But it did not go down, and only slightly trended up for a few months, but that is a long way from the glib characterization that anybody was paying down anything. And Angell should know that. Furthermore, this lack of borrowing was due, in the greater part, to the fact that the government was taking in bigger, more gigantic loads of money via the expedient of higher taxes, especially the Social Security/Medicare tax, which was tragically boosted to a mind-shattering 15.3% of gross income, where it sits today. But that"third quarter of 2001" is infamous for other things. That is the exact moment when two things simultaneously happened, 1) the debt really started to explode, going from $5.8 trillion to today's $7.1 trillion and 2) something else. And for all I know, there was a third thing that happened, too, because these kinds of things do not happen in isolation. Then Angell goes on to castigate former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin et al, declaring that they did"not understand the first principle of macroeconomics." I can tell by the way your head snapped around that you are as curious as I am about this fabulous"first principle." I love this "first principle" thing, as it makes me think of Sir Isaac Newton, or"Izzy" as I call him, because his Principles of Physics are easy to comprehend, and there is never anybody saying things like,"Well, before we can get started we need a quick little review of the topographical hexadecimal mathematical system in N-space." This First Principle According To Wayne Angell is, and I know you are going to love this as much as I did,"Output growth is not sustainable without a growth of total credit and debt." I say"huh?" I gotta tell ya that I have read a lot of things in my life, although lately it is mostly letters from collection agencies demanding that I send them some money real fast or they will take stronger action, but I have never, ever heard anybody tell me that"Output growth is not sustainable without a growth of total credit and debt." And especially never has anybody told me that it was some basic principle! Because I am here to tell you that if you want a Basic Principle that you can really take to the bank, output growth can be sustained by profits alone! And it usually was, all the way through the history of mankind! And at the beginning of production, output growth it can be started with savings alone! As it usually was, similarly all the way through the history of mankind. But it gets better, as we now see where the current Fed idea of massive and irresponsible increases in Fed credit comes from, as Angell concludes that since the private sector has loaded up on debt,"this household debt burden continues to require both low interest rates and rising household wealth from real estate and the stock market to avoid deflationary pressures." In other words, the private sector has now gotten itself so loaded up on consumer debt, real estate debt and total reliance on the stock market, that it is now necessary to continue to force interest rates down, and down, and down, down down down, downdy down down de down down, so that the idiots who got themselves into that kind of bankrupting mess can be saved from their own folly. And not only that, but everybody thinks it will work! Hahahaha! But the really troubling thing about the mess the Fed has gotten us into is that its chairman, the honorable Sir Alan, knows better. I had lunch the other day with two guys who are also scribblers about economics, Bob Wood and Steve Heller. Over our meals, we all wondered aloud why it is that Greenspan, an erstwhile gold-bug/sound money/Austrian- type dude, and therefore recognizably one of the more intelligent of our species, has apparently given up the faith. Why is this Greenspan guy, who not only knows better, but has actually proved that he knows better by writing one of the better defenses of gold and the utter refutation of fiat money, doing this to us? Why? Steve Heller thinks he is doing it on purpose. For Greenspan so loves mankind that he is deliberately proving to the people of the planet that you MUST have gold as money, and proving the profound wisdom of the Founding Fathers, who were so careful to write into the Constitution - the very Constitution itself! - that money shall only be silver and gold. And he is teaching this Grand Lesson to us via the brilliantly simple expedient of doing literally everything that a central bank can do, to every excess, when unencumbered by the strictures of gold, to ensure a boom. Including enlisting, through the global financial system, the cooperation of almost all foreign central banks on the globe, to do the same things! Gaaaahhhhh! Uh-oh! I feel one of my"spells" coming on. The purpose of this deliberate boom-bust cycle, with the emphasis on"bust," is to prove to the primitive savages, namely you and me, once and for all that when the inevitable bust comes, so that there will be nooooOOOooo doubt in anyone's mind, that you cannot have a monetary system that uses a fiat currency, especially one in which you have fractional reserve banking, and DOUBLY especially when you allow such leverage inside the banking system on such an absolutely massive scale, and TRIPLY especially when the expansion is accompanied by bigger government and an economy receiving huge money transfers, which is the government literally handing out money. You don't need a big brain to see what is coming. All you need to do is stop drinking heavily, lay off those prescription medications that have a mind-altering component, and take a look at some of the other times in history when people did what we, and I am talking about us Earth creatures again, are doing. And the one thing that you would notice, if you were paying close attention with your magnifying glass, snooping around looking for clues as to what is going on around you, is what you did NOT see. It is another famous case of the Dog That Didn't Bark. Specifically, you never read about a time when people used a fiat currency to expand government and its spending, multiplied by a massive fractional reserve system of banking, where everybody ended up rich and fat and happy. Instead, what you always read, and lots of times there are really neat pictures and photos with captions to make it a more interesting read, is how all the fiat-currency people went broke and died of starvation in utter poverty at the end of the boom-bust cycle, usually involved in some disastrously expensive and destructive war. I shiver at the thought. Regards, The Mogambo Guru, for The Daily Reckoning --- Mogambo Sez: In response to overwhelming demand for a way to hold gold, an asset that has been doing very well and is guaranteed to do well for years to come, such is the demand for shares of the Central Fund of Canada, which is now so huge and popular that they are now selling their shares on the American exchanges. Apparently there is a big enough American demand for aggregated gold and silver bullion ownership that does not want to go through the Canadian exchanges, and be subject to all of that cross- border, cross-currency hassle. So this is a way for Americans, using dollars, to directly own gold in its most highly liquid form: actual vault bullion that sells as shares on an exchange. So why don't you tell me again how gold is such a barbarous relic, and how nobody is buying it?
Firmian 06.04.2004, 20:24 @ Firmian	Dt. Fassung
	-->Astrologie und Börsenkurse von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner Also, wo war ich stehen geblieben? Achja... der Weg in den Ruin... Was für ein angenehmer Weg das ist! Jetzt zeigen sich endlich neue Jobs - laut offiziellen Zahlen wurden in den USA im letzten Monat 308.000 neue Arbeitsplätze geschaffen. Die Aktienkurse steigen... alles ist auf seine Art schön, selbst der Weg in den Ruin. Das ist so, als ob man von seinem Cabriolet aus die wunderschönen Berge bewundert, kurz bevor man eine Klippe hinunterfährt. Lassen Sie uns noch nicht so weit fahren. Zuerst einmal richten wir unseren Blick gen Himmel, zu den Sternen. Wenn wir denen nicht mehr trauen können - was für Hoffnung gibt es dann noch? Veronique, eine Freundin von mir, gibt einen Börsenbrief heraus, der auf Astrologie basiert. Sie hat mir gesagt, dass man mit ihren Empfehlungen in den letzten 19 Monaten fast 300 % Gewinn hätte machen können. Als ich ihre letzte Ausgabe las, da fand ich heraus, dass gerade ein neuer Zyklus begonnen hat: "Die Periode vom 4. April bis zum 4. August könnte für Aktien weniger attraktiv sein als die Periode seit März '03... Das Ende des Monats (April) wird volatil sein; es ist schwierig und gefährlich, zu raten, in welche Richtung die Kurse gehen werden. Im Endeffekt haben wir zwei Zyklen, sowohl positiv als auch negativ, auf mittelfristige Sicht. Einer ist so kraftvoll wie der andere." Die Sterne geben dem Seemann den Kurs vor, aber auch der Investor muss seinen Weg finden, so gut er eben kann. Sein Himmel ist immer bewölkt. Also sollten wir versuchen, uns daran zu erinnern, wie wir überhaupt auf diese Straße in den Ruin gekommen sind. Ich erinnere mich an das Diktum von Minsky: Stabilität führt zu Instabilität. Die Amerikaner müssen sich so sicher gefühlt haben, dass sie kaum Gefahr darin sahen, Geld auszugeben - besonders angesichts der Tatsache, dass ihnen die am meisten angesehenen Ã-konomen sagten, dass Geld ausgeben gut für die Wirtschaft sei. In den letzten 50 Jahren haben die Amerikaner deshalb einen so stolzen Schuldenturm gebaut, dass der wahrscheinlich jederzeit umfallen kann. Wenn das alles wäre, dann würde der amerikanische"Tag der Abrechnung" ein Picknick sein. Aber es gibt andere Dinge, die auf Amerika zukommen. Mein Lieblings-Kolumnist, Thomas Friedman von der New York Times, lässt kaum eine Woche vergehen, in denen er nicht über die Vorzüge von Demokratie und"nation building" schwadroniert. Ich würde seine Bemerkungen normalerweise als hohle Worte eines hohlen Kopfes abtun. Aber die Tatsache, dass Friedman so hartnäckig daran festhält, verwundert mich. Vielleicht sind seine Artikel doch nicht so harmlos, wie sie zu sein scheinen - aber vielleicht sind sie auch nur Wegweiser auf dem Weg in den Ruin. Und dann gibt es das Problem der Überalterung der Bevölkerung, besonders in Europa. Ein Nachbar erklärte mir am Wochenende:"Es ist schön und gut, von der Emanzipation der Frauen zu sprechen. Aber wenn die Frauen raus gehen, arbeiten, und aufhören, Kinder aufzuziehen, dann scheint die gesamte Gesellschaft zusammenzubrechen. Scheidungen, soziale Probleme... wir haben alle diese Probleme in Frankreich gesehen, seit sich die Rolle der Frauen geändert hat. Und das schlimmste davon ist, dass die Geburtenrate zurückgeht. Die einzige Nation in Europa - und das ist kaum noch Europa -, die genug Kinder hat, um das Bevölkerungsniveau zu halten, ist die Ukraine. Ist es gut, die Emanzipation von Frauen zu unterstützen, wenn dadurch ein gesamtes Volk verschwindet?!" Letzte Woche konnte ich in der Zeitung lesen, dass Wissenschaftler darüber spekulieren, dass die Welt eine Periode der Massenauslöschung - ähnlich der Eiszeit - erleben wird. Damals sollen Tausende Spezies ausgestorben sein. Ich bezweifle, dass die menschliche Rasse - oder auch"nur" die Europäer - ausgelöscht werden. Aber ich werde da nachdenklich. Mehr dazu - und zum Ã-lpreis! - in meinem letzten Beitrag der heutigen Investor's Daily-Ausgabe (siehe unten). Jetzt zu Eric mit mehr News: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Dienstag, 6. April 2004 Kommt jetzt Zinserhöhungsangst auf? von unserem Korrespondenten Eric Fry in Manhattan Die"Wirtschaftserholung ohne neue Arbeitsplätze" möge in Frieden ruhen... obwohl dieser liebe Freund nur eine sehr kurze Zeit auf diesem Planeten verbracht hat, war sein Einfluss sehr deutlich. Denn dank ihm fielen die Zinsen auf ein 50-Jahres-Tief, was zu simultanen Bullenmärkten bei Anleihen, Aktien, Immobilien und... besonders wichtig... schuldenfinanziertem Konsum führte. Ich werde meinen lieben Freund vermissen. Jochen Steffens hatte Sie bereits informiert: Letzten Freitag wurde vermeldet, dass die Zahl der US-Arbeitsplätze im März um 308.000 gestiegen ist, was deutlich über den Erwartungen von 122.000 lag. Die Arbeitsplatzzähler bei den offiziellen Behörden fanden außerdem heraus, dass es im Januar und Februar 87.000 mehr neue Jobs gegeben hat, als sie ursprünglich gezählt hatten. Insgesamt gibt es damit 395.000 mehr Jobs, als wir vorher gedacht hatten. Aber vielleicht ist doch nicht alles so rosig, wie es aussieht. Mein Kollege Dan Denning schreibt:"Hier ist die grausige... Wahrheit: Der durchschnittliche Stundenlohn im amerikanischen Einzelhandel lag im März 2004 bei 11,99 Dollar - gegenüber Februar ein RÜCKGANG um 0,05 Cents und gegenüber dem März 2003 ein Plus von nur 0,75 %. Der durchschnittliche Wochenlohn im Einzelhandel lag im März 2004 bei 364,50 Dollar - ein MINUS von 1 % gegenüber dem Februar und ein Plus von nur 0,09 % gegenüber März 2003. Mein Fazit: Mehr Jobs im Dienstleistungssektor, weniger Arbeitsstunden, ein sehr mageres wenn nicht sogar fallende Einkommensniveau. Und das sollen GUTE Nachrichten sein?" Ja, in der Tat, die"Wirtschaftserholung ohne neue Arbeitsplätze" ist tot. Aber die Investoren weinen ihr nicht nach. Im Gegenteil: Es wurde gefeiert, mit steigenden Aktienkursen. Die Anleihenbesitzer hingegen warfen ihre Anleihen auf den Markt, was die Rendite der 10jährigen Anleihen von 3,89 % auf mittlerweile gut 4,20 % steigen ließ. Das führte dazu, dass einige Aktien dann doch vielen. So brach die Hypothekenbank Countrywide Financial um 5 % ein, ebenso wie das Bauunternehmen Pulte Corp. Auch der Goldpreis ist gefallen. Jetzt steht er unter 420 Dollar pro Feinunze. Interessanterweise hatte der Goldpreis nur einen Tag vor der Bekanntgabe der US-Arbeitsmarktzahlen im Tagesverlauf ein 15-Jahres-Hoch erreicht, bei 432 Dollar je Feinunze. Es wäre natürlich exzellent, wenn man dort an Gewinnmitnahmen gedacht hätte. Aber ich bin trotzdem der Ansicht, dass sich das Thema"Gold" noch nicht erledigt hat - wir werden von diesem Edelmetall noch hören. Die Hauptfrage ist jetzt allerdings, ob die Freude über die guten Arbeitsmarktzahlen zu Zinserhöhungsangst führen wird. Zahlreiche Ã-konomen haben bereits gewarnt, dass die Fed jetzt ihre Niedrigzinspolitik überdenken könnte. So meint Peter Boockvar, Aktienanalyst bei Miller Tabak:"Die Fed wird die Leitzinsen wahrscheinlich im August erhöhen, möglicherweise früher, und die (Aktien-)Märkte legen während Zinserhöhungsphasen keine Rally hin." Aber Donald Straszheim von Straszheim Global Advisors kontert:"Wir werden vielleicht etwas Aufwärtsdruck bei den Zinsen sehen, aber nicht genug, um die Erholung zu gefährden oder die Zuwächse bei den Gewinnen zu verletzen. Die Leitzinsen liegen bei 1 %. Selbst wenn sie verdoppelt würden, dann wären sie immer noch niedrig." Dann sollte man auch bedenken, dass ein starker Monat am Arbeitsmarkt noch keinen Trend macht. Wir werden noch einige solche Monate sehen müssen, bevor die Job-Maschine wirklich auf Hochtouren läuft. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Dienstag, 6. April 2004 Was denkt sich Milton Friedman eigentlich? von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner, derzeit in London * In den USA sind schneller als je zuvor in den letzten 4 Jahren neue Jobs geschaffen worden - so die offiziellen Stellen. Was soll man von dieser jüngsten Entwicklung halten? Habe ich mit all meinen Einschätzungen falsch gelegen, liebe(r) Leser(in)? Darüber, dass die Aktienkurse ihren Zenit überschritten haben... über die Verlagerung von Jobs nach Indien und China... über Schulden, den Dollar und die wirtschaftliche Situation Amerikas? Vielleicht habe ich in den Sternen etwas Falsches gelesen... oder auf der Straßenkarte. Vielleicht sollte ich nicht soviel trinken. Vielleicht befinden wir uns doch nicht auf dem Weg in den Ruin. Sondern auf dem Weg des Ruhms. Ja, da sind wir... und niemand hält uns auf. Die Aktienkurse werden von jetzt an bis zum Ende der Welt steigen. Die Häuser werden jedes Jahr mehr wert werden, so dass die Hausbesitzer bis in die Ewigkeit bestehende Hypotheken erhöhen können. Und überall auf der Welt werden die Leute immer bereitwillig den Amerikanern Geld leihen... und die werden es niemals zurückzahlen müssen. Vielleicht kann man einen Boom ohne einen Abschwung haben... einen Preis ohne den dazugehörigen Fleiß... gute Noten ohne Lernen... Wachstum ohne Ersparnisse... Wiederauferstehung ohne Kreuzigung. Gott... das hoffe ich. * Thomas Friedman ist bemerkenswert. Sobald er die Probleme in Mesopotamien gelöst hat (sein Rat: Mehr US-Truppen dorthin schicken, und viel mehr Geld) hat er sich mit Indien befasst. Auch da sah er das Problem, und er hatte dieselbe Lösung: Mehr Demokratie... Reformen (dieses Wert passt für alles)... und Stärkung der Stellung der Frauen! Und heute hat er wieder einen Rat parat... diesmal für Mexiko. Was soll Mexiko tun? Ich kann es kaum erwarten, das von ihm zu hören. "Revolution", so sein Rat."Eine Reform-Revolution." Mir stockt der Atem. Ich bin von dieser monumentalen Schwachsinnigkeit beeindruckt. "Reform", darunter kann ich mir schwach etwas vorstellen. Und unter "Revolution" kann ich mir sehr deutlich etwas vorstellen. Aber die zwei zusammen kann ich mir genauso wenig vorstellen wie eine Qualle und einen Rotfuchs. Was für eine komische und schreckliche Frucht würde so eine Union produzieren? Ich habe den Artikel von Friedman weitergelesen, um das herauszufinden. Aber selbst Friedman ist aufgeschmissen. Seine Worte führen ins Nichts. Er hat diese zwei Kreaturen zusammen in einen Käfig gesteckt, aber er kann sie nicht dazu bewegen, etwas zu tun. Deshalb kommt er lahm auf sein Lieblingsthema zu sprechen: Man sollte die Steuern erhöhen und mehr Geld ausgeben. "Es ist hart, wettbewerbsfähig zu bleiben, wenn man die niedrigste Steuerquote der westlichen Volkswirtschaften hat", schreibt er. Und auch hier muss ich tief durchatmen... denn ich kenne keinen Fall, in dem das Erhöhen von Steuern die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit erhöht hat. Wie eine"revolutionäre Reform" oder ein"ehrlicher Politiker" scheinen diese Ideen einfach nicht zusammen zu passen."Das ist ein Oxymoron" könnte ich sagen, wenn ich jemand beeindrucken wollte. Steuern sind Kosten. Wie kann man die Kosten erhöhen... und gleichzeitig die Preise senken? Wie kommt Friedman eigentlich auf solche Gedanken? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Dienstag, 6. April 2004 Besorgniserregende demographische Entwicklung von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner Während die Bevölkerungszahl in den westlichen Staaten sinkt, da steigt die in China, Indien und in Dutzenden von kleineren Ländern. Da kommen neue Bürger hinzu, so als ob sie Mobilfunkgeräte wären, die frisch vom Fließband kommen. Dass diese neuen Proletarier immer mehr der gut bezahlten Jobs wegnehmen werden, das scheint fast unausweichlich zu sein. Relativ gesprochen sollten die Einkommen in den USA und Westeuropa fallen - genau dann, wenn die Amerikaner am dringendsten Geld brauchen, um ihre Schulden zurückzuzahlen und ihren Ruhestand finanzieren zu können. Gleichzeitig hängen die Rentensysteme davon ab, dass neue Arbeiter ins System einsteigen, die die Renten der anderen bezahlen. Alt werden... und Schulden haben... die größte Herausforderung mit Wettbewerbern seit der Industriellen Revolution... mit bankrotten Rentensystemen, man sollte denken, dass das genug sei. Aber Moment... es gibt noch mehr. "Die Ã-lproduktion sinkt", sagte ein Vorstandsmitglied des französischen Ã-lgiganten Total letzten Freitag."Es sieht so aus, als ob Mr. Hubbert doch Recht hatte. Weltweit scheint die Ã-lproduktion ihren Zenit überschritten zu haben. Ja, man kann mehr Ã-l aus dem Boden holen, wenn man moderne Methoden nutzt. Aber die sind teurer. Und die ermöglichen nicht das leicht herauszuholende, billige Ã-l der letzten 50 Jahre." Die Amerikaner nutzen ungefähr ein Viertel der weltweiten Ã-lproduktion. Plötzlich merken sie, dass sie mit Ausländern darum in Wettbewerb treten müssen. Da die Lebensstandards in China, Indien und sonst wo steigen... verbrauchen die Leute dort mehr Ã-l. "Dieser große Zuwachs bei der Ã-lnachfrage kommt zur schlechtmöglichsten Zeit", so mein Nachbar,"gerade da, wo die Vorräte sinken. Die Wirtschaft des Westens war nicht nur von Ã-l abhängig... sondern von billigem Ã-l. Es wird interessant zu sehen sein, was passieren wird, wenn der reale Ã-lpreis steigt."

The Daily Reckoning - The Dog That Didn't Bark (Mogambo Guru)

Dt. Fassung