Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - The Daily Reckoning - God, Man, and French Chefs (Bill Bonner)

Firmian 10.08.2004, 08:30	The Daily Reckoning - God, Man, and French Chefs (Bill Bonner) Thread gesperrt
	-->God, Man, and French Chefs The Daily Reckoning Baltimore, Maryland Friday, August 06, 2004 --------------------- * Reward-free risk...financial terror alert... * The unnerving glow of bright red...payrolls tank! * Steaks...porcine animals...and the chef who couldn't stop cussing! --------------------- Where are we? We mean, where are we economically, of course. Physically, we are somewhere underneath the big skies of the Great American West on a sunny day. And metaphorically? Do you really want to know where we are metaphorically, dear reader? Of course not, but we will tell you anyway. Here. We are out on this rock with our arm stuck in a contradiction; we expect both inflation and deflation."You can't have it both ways," say readers. Either inflation destroys bonds or deflation destroys shares, they say. "They'll both be destroyed," is our bet. That shares are no bargain seems obvious. That U.S. Treasury bonds are a"reward-free risk" seems clear enough, too. That such extraordinary confidence (What could be lending to the world's biggest debtor - who openly promises to devalue his currency - at the lowest yields in 50 years - but an exhibition of extreme, almost lunatic confidence?) should eventually give way to fear and loathing also seems not only self-evident, but actually simpatico. It is the way the world works: Day turns to night, good yields to bad, exceptional is replaced by mediocre; Volcker is replaced by Greenspan...tight money is followed by loose money...and then the wheels come off! But when and how? Eric? [Ed. Note: Breaking news...and another wheel comes off. The non-farm payrolls report was released just moments ago. Only 32,000 jobs were added in July, against expectations of 228,000. The Labor Department also cut its tally for May and June by 61,000.] --------------------- Eric Fry, from New York City... - Mr. Market upped the financial terror alert to"code red" yesterday, due to the"unusually specific" intelligence that share prices on the Nasdaq plummeted to a new low for 2004...Stock-trading terminals from coast to coast emitted the unnerving glow of bright red light, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 163 points to 9,963 and the Nasdaq tumbled nearly 2% to 1,822. Losers outnumbered winners 23-to-9 on the New York Stock Exchange and 11-to-4 on the Nasdaq. - Soaring oil prices - once again - seemed to be the main cause of yesterday's terrifying sell off. Just two days ago, crude oil FELL more than $1.00 from its then-record- high perch, and stock market pundits worldwide were lining up to write oil's obituary. The long-awaited"correction" in oil prices had finally begun, they believed, and the stock market had finally found its long-awaited opportunity to stage a big summer rally... - On cue, the Asian markets rallied nicely, if not dramatically, Wednesday night. The European bourses followed up with modest advances of their own...but then, the global"relief rally" in stocks collided head-on with a stunning snapback rally in crude oil. The September crude oil contract jumped more than $1.00 before most traders at the New York Mercantile Exchange had stepped outside for their first cigarettes of the day, as news crossed the wires that Russian courts had imperiled - once again - the ability of oil giant Yukos to continue operating. Yukos, which produces about 20% of Russia's total oil output, has been struggling to make good on a $3.4 billion tax bill from 2000. The titanic tax evader also owes billions of dollars in back taxes for other years, and the Russian government is attempting, rather inelegantly, to collect. -"Yukos said Wednesday that bailiffs allowed it to access frozen bank accounts to continue to fund operations," CBS MarketWatch explained,"but the country's Justice Ministry withdrew the permission Thursday, implying that the move wasn't legal." The judicial about-face sparked frenetic buying in the oil pits, and by the end of New York trading crude oil had jumped $1.58 to a new record high of $44.41. - Curiously, most oil stocks tumbled yesterday, behaving much more like mere stocks than like proxies for a rapidly rising oil price. Refining stocks like Valero and Tesoro suffered particularly severe abuse at the hands of investors. The gut-wrenching trading action in the stock and oil markets failed to inspire much gold buying. Gold investors seem to be more perplexed than panicked, as the precious metal gained one thin dime to $394.80 an ounce. -"$50 oil now seems more realistic than ever," we remarked in this column last week...and so we continue to believe. But even we are amazed that oil could sell for $50 a barrel. The market knows best, we suppose, and the oil market seems to know that the balance between supply and demand is much more delicate than most folks imagine. -"The global oil supply is a little like one lone sushi chef trying to feed an NFL football team," we observed last week,"or like one lone oyster-shucker trying to provide a steady supply of Blue Points and Kumamotos to a roomful of Republicans..." - Oil's straight-up rally should take a breather at some point...but that point never seems to arrive. The world's oil consumers keep consuming ever-larger quantities of the stuff, while the world's oil producers struggle to keep abundant supplies flowing. - Now the oil market is"just one small disruption away from a deficit when it comes to world production," warns Phil Flynn, the savvy oil analyst at Alaron Trading. An oil "deficit" is simply a polite way of saying"crisis." Here at The Daily Reckoning, we've coined a word for the coming crisis in the energy markets...We call it"E-Day." --------------------- Bill Bonner, back in New Mexico... * A carnivorous reader sent this snippet... "If you want a real good burger or piece of meat...check out Bobcat Bites Diner just outside the city limits of Santa Fe, off of 25. My dad lives in Santa Fe and we always have a burger there." We are hungry. Must dash. More on chefs with beef, below... --------------------- The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: A DR Classique, first aired December 12, 2000, as Bill ran to catch another plane to the states... GOD, MAN AND FRENCH CHEFS by Bill Bonner "Excrement!" The conversation in the rather up-market"Les Bouchons de Francois Clerc" came to an immediate halt. Everyone had heard the booming voice in the kitchen. Someone was"losing it"... I will do my best to translate, without offending your refined sensibilities, dear reader: "C'est une catastrophe! This place is a bordello filled with the excrement of fat porcine animals of low intelligence who prostitute themselves." It was a remarkable stream of cussing, which went on for several minutes. I had heard nothing like it, even when Pierre skinned his knuckles while trying to fix the tractor. Maria laughed. Other diners looked at each other awkwardly...or down at their food nervously. Had the man lost his mind? What had he done to the food? We could imagine tomorrow's headline in the leftist newspaper, Liberation: "Diners Poisoned as Chef Goes Mad!" I could even imagine the article's slant: sympathy for the poor chef who had probably been asked to work more than his usual 35 hours and was justifiably indignant over the working conditions, or perhaps over the condition of the carrots he was given to work with...along with a certain unstated contempt for the dead bourgeois customers - who had driven the poor man mad. This was my first experience with a chef gone berserk. But they must go crazy all the time. French diners are very demanding. And very critical. They take food seriously. At least a couple DR readers have wondered why I make my home in France. To some, living in France in the time of Chirac has no more appeal than serious dental work in the time of Colbert. But in reply to the question, I respond that life, like theatre, is lived as either tragedy or comedy. An American in France sees the comedy in things. We are like Chevy Chase in his movie European Vacation, too ignorant to worry about what the chef puts in the soup...and too romantic to care. And there is another reason - which helps explain, or perhaps illustrate, many of the ideas you find in The Daily Reckoning...which I will explain. The French take many things seriously. Maria and Sophia recounted their experiences at school, Maria doing wickedly accurate impersonations of some of the characters at the Institute de la Tour...and Sophia reporting, in depth, on the strange goings-on at the Ecole Actif Bilingue. Poor Diane! Maria reported that her friend broke down in tears as her teacher evaluated her work in front of the entire class. Apparently, each of the students is asked to stand as the teacher tells her how she is doing. The pressure is intense. Teachers in France do not worry about a child's self-esteem. Students are criticized sharply, almost mercilessly. It is hard to feel sympathetic towards a 14-year-old boy. But Maria's account of how teachers picked on the only two boys in her class brought me close. I have also heard parents criticize their children in a manner that would seem harsh in America. But parents are expected to spend a lot of time pushing their children to do well in school. So much depends on getting good grades in France...the whole country seems to be run by people who did well in secondary school, took competitive exams and got into the elite"grand ecoles" such as E.N.A., the school of administration that prepares most of France's high-ranking business and political leaders. "The enarques [as graduates from E.N.A. are called] are untouchable," says a friend of mine, asking not to be quoted."There are always scandals in France - and people going to jail. But the enarques never go to jail. Because the judges are enarques too." [I am secretly hoping that maybe Henry will make it into E.N.A...and will make me untouchable too.] Sophia's school is completely different from Maria's. It is a school for foreigners, and perhaps redundantly, for misfits. Sophia is there because her French is not good enough for the regular schools. Unlike the younger children, she has had to learn French the hard way - by studying it. There are four major groups in Sophia's school. There are the French - who are usually hard cases - the"Arabs," the "Koreans," and the"Anglo-Saxons." Thus do school children divide the races of mankind. "Instruction is supposed to be in English," Sophia told us. "But nobody speaks English except us, the Anglo-Saxons. The rest speak various things that sound a little like they might be English...but I usually can't understand a word." Curiously... "But the Koreans," as Sophia's schoolmates refer to all the East Asians in their school,"who barely speak English, seem to be the only ones who get good grades." This little insight by Sophia triggered a recollection in her sister: "Dad," she asked,"How come you and Mom argue about such silly things? I mean, I heard Martine's parents arguing about money...or maybe it was over what kind of car they were going to buy." "But you and Mom," she continued,"last weekend...I mean who ever heard of parents arguing over...who was that...Darwin?" Ah yes, Darwin. Well, that. "Maria, we weren't arguing," I protested, trying to close ranks with Elizabeth,"we were just discussing it." And Koreans? Yes - we had mentioned Koreans, too. I had actually. East Asians seem to work harder; and intelligence tests suggest that they are smarter than Anglo-Saxons. Or the French. In Darwinian terms, they seem to have a competitive advantage. How come the whole world is not full of Koreans? Because, I had pointed out to Elizabeth, Darwin's theory is flawed. It was a silly point...but a silly argument needs silly points. Who could take an argument over Darwinism seriously? Even worse, who could take Darwinism seriously? Still, it is fun to argue about it... Uh oh...I'm going to miss my plane if I don't leave now. Your correspondent, Bill Bonner for The Daily Reckoning
Firmian 10.08.2004, 08:33 @ Firmian	Re: The Daily Reckoning - dt. Fassung
	-->Inflation und Deflation von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner Wo befinden wir uns? Ich meine natürlich wirtschaftlich gesehen. Physisch gesehen befinde ich mich derzeit unter dem sonnigen Himmel des großen amerikanischen Westens. Und metaphorisch? Wollen Sie wirklich wissen, wo ich mich metaphorisch befinde? Natürlich nicht. Aber ich werde es Ihnen dennoch sagen. Hier. Ich befinde mich auf diesem Felsen, und mein Arm ist in einem Widerspruch gefangen; ich erwarte sowohl Inflation als auch Deflation. "Sie können nicht beides haben", sagen meine Leser(innen). Entweder wird eine Inflation die Anleihenkurse oder eine Deflation die Aktienkurse zerstören, sagen sie. Meine Einschätzung:"Beide werden zerstört werden". Dass US-Aktien kein Schnäppchen sind, das sollte offensichtlich sein. Und dass die Renditen der US-Staatsanleihen nicht die hohen Risiken widerspiegeln, ist zumindest für mich auch klar genug. Diese außerordentlich große Zuversicht an beiden Märkten sollte schließlich Furcht und Sorgen Platz machen. Auch das ist nicht nur offensichtlich, sondern auch sympathisch. Das ist auch die Art und Weise, wie die Welt funktioniert: Tag wird zu Nacht, gute Renditen zu schlechten, außergewöhnlich wird zu mittelmäßig; der Fed-Vorsitzende Volcker wird durch Greenspan ersetzt... eine strikte Geldpolitik wird durch eine Politik des leichten Geldes ersetzt... und dann fallen die Räder ab! Aber wann und wie? Eric? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Montag, 9. August 2004 "E-Day" von unserem Korrespondenten Eric Fry in New York City Ich möchte heute etwas über Yukos schreiben - denn Yukos produziert 20 % des gesamten russischen Erdöl-Outputs, ist also ein entsprechend wichtiger Lieferant. Yukos hat eine Steuerrechnung in Höhe von 3,4 Milliarden Dollar erhalten, für das Jahr 2000. Der gigantische Steuervermeider Yukos schuldet dem russischen Staat auch noch für andere Jahre Steuern, und die russische Regierung versucht nun - ziemlich unelegant - diese Steuern einzutreiben. "Yukos hat letzten Mittwoch mitgeteilt, dass das zuständige Gericht den Zugang zu eingeforenen Konten erlaubt hat, um die laufenden Geschäfte weiter finanzieren zu können", so CBS Marketwatch,"aber das Justizministerium (...) hat diese Genehmigung am Donnerstag zurückgenommen, was impliziert, dass diese Genehmigung nicht legal war." Kurioserweise sind die meisten Ã-laktien zuletzt gefallen - damit verhielten sie sich mehr wie"normale" Aktien als wie Profiteure eines rapide steigenden Ã-lpreises. Raffinerie-Aktien wie Valero oder Tesoro verloren besonders deutlich. Der Markt weiß es wohl am besten, und der Ã-lmarkt scheint zu wissen, dass das Gleichgewicht zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage erheblich gefährdeter ist, als sich die meisten Leute vorstellen. Das weltweite Ã-langebot ist vergleichbar mit einem einzigen Sushi-Koch, der eine NFL Football-Mannschaft ernähren möchte. Oder wie ein einzelner Austernschäler, der versucht, den Nachschub für einen Raum voll Republikanern zu sichern... Die Rally des Ã-lpreises sollte irgendwann eine Auszeit nehmen... aber dieser Punkt scheint niemals zu kommen. Die Ã-lkonsumenten der Welt konsumieren weiterhin immer größere Mengen dieses schwarzen Zeugs, während die Ã-lproduzenten der Welt versuchen, das Angebot so stark wie möglich auszuweiten. Jetzt ist der Ã-lmarkt"nur noch eine kleine Störung von einem Defizit, was die weltweite Produktion angeht, entfernt", warnt Phil Flynn, Ã-lanalyst bei Alaron Trading. Ein Ã-l-"Defizit" ist einfach ein höflicheres Wort für"Krise". Ich habe gerade ein eigenes Wort für die kommende Krise an den Energie-Märkten kreiert... ich nenne das "E-Day". ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Montag, 9. August 2004 Burger in New Mexico von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner, derzeit in New Mexico... *** Ein Fleisch verzehrender Leser hat mir diese Email geschrieben: "Wenn Sie wirklich gute Burger oder ein Stück Fleisch wollen... dann versuchen Sie es mal mit Bobcat Bites Diner, direkt an der Stadtgrenze von Santa Fe, an der 25. Mein Vater lebt in Santa Fed und wir gehen dort immer Burger essen." Ich habe Hunger. Muss jetzt was Essen gehen. Mehr über meine Reiseerlebnisse in den USA in den nächsten Tagen, hier im Investor's Daily! ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Montag, 9. August 2004 Bleiben Sie locker... von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner Die Welt, wie wir sie kennen, kommt zu einem Ende. Aber warum sollten wir uns darum Sorgen machen? Ich lache und habe mir vorgenommen, das zu genießen. Das Römische Imperium brauchte Hunderte von Jahren, bis es zusammenbrach. Während dieser Zeitspanne wussten die meisten Leute nicht einmal, dass ihre Welt zu einem Ende kam. Die meisten gingen weiter ihren Geschäften nach, pflanzten ihr Getreide an, tranken ihren Wein, schaukelten ihre Kinder auf ihren Knien - so als ob das Imperium für die Ewigkeit wäre. Natürlich mag der Mob von Rom bei jeder neuen Nachricht gejammert haben: Die Barbaren hatten die Po-Ebene überquert und waren auf dem Weg nach Süden - bald würden sie vor den Stadttoren Roms stehen! Aber andere leben ruhige Leben, in denen sich Verzweiflung und Amüsement abwechselten - so, als ob nichts passiert wäre. Und was hätten sie auch tun können... außer dem Unheil aus dem Weg zu gehen und sich um ihre eigenen Sachen zu kümmern? So gab es auch während der Weltwirtschaftskrise viele Leute, die diese Krise genossen. Wenn man damals einen gut bezahlten Job hatte und ihn behielt, dann muss das wie das Paradies gewesen sein. Man musste nirgendwo anstehen, man brauchte für gute Restaurants keine Reservierung mehr. Es war nie leichter, mit den Nachbarn mitzuhalten - denn mit den Nachbarn ging es abwärts. Ein Großteil der Befriedigung im Leben kommt daher, dass man sich anderen Leuten gegenüber überlegen fühlt. Und wann konnte man das schon besser, als in einer Weltwirtschaftskrise, wenn man selbst einen Job hatte? Das Geheimnis zum Genuß von Massenbewegungen ist es, ein Zuschauer und kein Teilnehmer zu sein. Wieviel besser wäre es gewesen, wenn man Napoleons Grande ArmÃ©e auf dem Weg nach Russland nur zu gewunken hätte, als wenn man mit ihr mitmarschiert wäre. Vielleicht hätte man den Soldaten Ohrenschützer und Handschuhe verkaufen können! Und genauso hätte man es mehr genießen können, wenn man den großen Boom der Wall Street der 1990er nur als Zuschauer mitbekommen hätte, der gelegentlich das Fernsehen einschaltet, um zu sehen, was für absurde Dinge die Analysten als nächstes sagen würden. Besonders erfreulich wäre es gewesen, wenn man auch beim folgenden Absturz nur Zuschauer gewesen wäre. Ich fordere Sie dazu auf, gegenüber den Schlagzeilen in der Presse und den Meinungen in den Editorials misstrauisch zu sein. Auf fast alle Massenbewegungen, die dadurch angeheizt werden, wird man eines Tages mit Bedauern und Erheitern zurücksehen.

The Daily Reckoning - God, Man, and French Chefs (Bill Bonner)

Re: The Daily Reckoning - dt. Fassung