-->TUMPEL-GUGERELL, GERTRUDE POSITION:

ECB Board Member AGE: 51

STANCE: Moderate

REMARK (05/11/04): Looking at developments over last 25 years, we see that swings we have witnessed in last 6 years (I.e. since EMU) are not extraordinary.

VIEW: True that synthetic EUR/USD has spent significant time above current levels since 1979, though we are now re-approaching range extremes. ECB rhetoric for now likely to remain confined to concerns about excessive volatility/disorderly markets.

-->There is something of a divide appearing between EU politicians and the ECB (and where have we heard that before?) as EUR/USD nears new post launch highs. French President Chirac is 'a bit concerned', German Economic Minister Clement is keeping an eye, but the ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell is more worried about disorderly and volatile markets (and vols are not particularly stretched), while Trichet hinted at much the same yesterday at the press conference. Expect more talk, don't expect any action, except maybe slightly noisier than usual ESCB 'commercial' EUR/USD sales.

Quelle:4CAST