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ADEN Weekly Update
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Week of November 24, 2004

Gold and the currencies remain hot. They continue reaching new highs as the dollar fell further to another new low today. The dollar index is approaching its 1995 low near 82, which is the record low on the dollar. The stock market remains strong, but oil's volatile swings are starting to be an influence. Meanwhile, the CRB commodity index jumped up to nearly a 24 year high today. Inflation is heating.

Gold rose to another 16 year high as it approaches $450, and it's very strong above $435 (basis December). The C rise has completed its main characteristic, which is being the best rise in the cycle and reaching a new bull market high. The rise is now nearing the highs of previous C peaks and based on timing it could end at any time, or it could last another month. With silver and gold shares starting to stall this week, the C rise may be near an end. This means watch the numbers closely this week. On the upside, if gold and silver stay above $435 and $7.40, respectively, and rise to new highs, the C rise is alive and well. But if $435 and $7.40 are broken on the downside, the C rise will most likely be over. Both then could decline to possibly $420 and $7 and still be very firm. Since D declines tend to be the worst declines, we can't rule out that the major trends at $402 and $6.30 could be tested.

Keep in mind, whenever we have a decent rise in a bull market (like now), there's always the possibility that an explosive rise starts, which is why we prefer to stay with our positions. But if you want to take some profits, take them when the above numbers are broken on a close. The XAU and HUI gold share indexes are strong above 102 and 225, respectively, and they still have room to rise further (see Web Extra). Platinum is strong above $850 and copper jumped up. It's strong above $1.33. Oil is consolidating its downward correction. If it can now stay above $46, the weakness is over and oil is strong once again if it can now stay above $48.50.

Today was more of a currency day. As the dollar fell, all the currencies shot up, especially the euro, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and yen as they all reached new highs. Just as the dollar is nearing its 1995 low, the Swiss franc is approaching its 95 highs. The currencies are super strong above: 1.2950 euro,.8500 Swiss franc, 1.85 British pound,.8300 Canadian dollar,.9550 yen,.7650 Aussie dollar and.6920 New Zealand dollar. The U.S. dollar index is very weak below 84. Its leading indicator is approaching an oversold zone but it could still decline further (see Web Extra). The dollar index will likely find short-term support near 82, its 1995 lows, but below this level it would be extremely bearish as it would be at a new record low. Keep your positions.

The stock market remains strong but if oil rises further, it will certainly dampen the rise. For now, the indices will remain very strong above 10300 on the Dow Industrials, 2050 on Nasdaq, 3550 on the Trans and 1160 on S&P500, and technically they have room to rise further short-term. Some of the world equity markets like Japan are rolling over while others remain strong.

T-Bills reached another 3 year high while bond yields are neutral. But the yields are poised to rise while bond prices decline. If the yields can stay above 4% for the 10 year and 4.75% for the 30 year, then rise above 4.25% and 5.07%, respectively, long rates will be following short rates while bond prices decline.

For our North American subscribers... Wishing you all a wonderful Thanksgiving. Our December issue will be sent on Friday, November 26.

Thank you, warm wishes and until next Wednesday,

Pamela and Mary Anne

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