-->Muddling Through is Now the Watchword, but afterwards?
Outlook upon the second quarter 2005



In recent times‚ 'Muddling Through’ is a household word increasingly heard in connection with the tackling of economic and financial aspects of our times' conspicuous problems.

The mere presence and interpretation of this verb is extremely meaningful, as it must be understood as an admission that people are at their wit's end or near it. Looking back on the politically very eventful weeks Europe has witnessed recently, we quite feel the need to fasten seatbelts, as an equally eventful future seems to be looming. Prominent economists are envisioning the end of the once highly praised globalization, a trend which initiated simultaneously with the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989.

Later on, we might even remember many times the derogatory classification as locusts of foreign investors and hedge funds operating in Germany made by leading German Social Democrat Franz Müntefering. After the citizens of France and the Netherlands had strongly voted down the EU constitution against their Governments' recommendations and in view of the Central EU Administration in Brussels having alerted Europe to an alarming lack of funds in all respects, things look indeed far from bright. In 2006 already, the craving for more tax revenues will entail higher value-added tax rates in many nations, which may happen even in Switzerland. The prospective new composition and power structure of Germany's government as of November 2005 will probably bring about the existing crew's relinquishing its governing role, welcomed by many people. However, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Free Democrats (FDP) will hardly be delighted to take over the former Government's heritage because they simply do not dispose of suitable means to solve the many intractable problems satisfactorily.

Since year-end 2004 and not unexpectedly, the steadily increasing imponderabilities caused the value of the US-Dollar to rise by more than 12%. Except for the South-African Rand, all currencies appreciated with respect to the Swiss Franc, an appreciation topped by the Turkish Lira after an intermittent consolidating phase. The currency market has been witnessing a withdrawing trend which may even amount to one or two percent overnight, being triggered solely by the published economic data. But the hard fact consists in a majority of market participants having been surprised by the appreciating Dollar, involving renewed exchange transactions taking place every day. The mere interest rate difference between the zones of the Euro and the US-Dollar makes it likely that this development will continue for a rather long time.

We feel that the Euro's temporary weakness will induce many big investors to opt for the still strongly undervalued"gold currency". It is quite likely that, during the coming autumn, the Dollar will have transcended its peak value. The decreasing momentum shown by the world's stock exchanges during the past months is evidence that markets are already now taking into account the difficult future perspectives.

Apart from further increasing US-Dollar exchange rates, we look thus forward to rising prices of gold and concurrently rising gold mining stock prices. This may mark the termination of a sustained consolidation period during several months.

After the recent reduction of share prices, we favour above all acquisition of the following gold mining stocks: Newmont Mining (US$ 38.08), Placer Dome (US$ 14.59), Goldcorporation (US$ 14.56), Agnico Eagle Mines (US$ 12.15) as well as the two South-African securities Harmony Gold (US$ 7.73) and Goldfields Corporation (US$10.60).

Although the Swiss Franc's exchange rate has been following a downward trend since December 2004 already, its value could even further decrease as a consequence of a Swiss vote in September 2005 rejecting free movement of persons in connection with the new EU member countries.

Zug, 15 June 2005

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>Although the Swiss Franc's exchange rate has been following a downward trend since December 2004 already, its value could even further decrease as a consequence of a Swiss vote in September 2005 rejecting free movement of persons in connection with the new EU member countries.
>Zug, 15 June 2005

Das ist ja wirklich ein bestechende Begründung, da sollte doch ich gleich mal noch ein paar SFr kaufen...

-->>
>>Although the Swiss Franc's exchange rate has been following a downward trend since December 2004 already, its value could even further decrease as a consequence of a Swiss vote in September 2005 rejecting free movement of persons in connection with the new EU member countries.
>>Zug, 15 June 2005
>Das ist ja wirklich ein bestechende Begründung, da sollte doch ich gleich mal noch ein paar SFr kaufen...
>

...laut Ferrero-Waldner, ist genau das: die erweiterte Personenfreizügigkeit im september an der Urne verwerfen! Hat sie jedenfalls, in Überschreitung ihrer Kompetenzen und in undiplomatischer Weise verlautbaren lassen!

Gruss,
BGG

-->dies zu tun.(SFR zu kaufen)


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Grüsse vom Landwirt

-->>>
>>>Although the Swiss Franc's exchange rate has been following a downward trend since December 2004 already, its value could even further decrease as a consequence of a Swiss vote in September 2005 rejecting free movement of persons in connection with the new EU member countries.
>>>Zug, 15 June 2005
>>Das ist ja wirklich ein bestechende Begründung, da sollte doch ich gleich mal noch ein paar SFr kaufen...
>>
>...laut Ferrero-Waldner, ist genau das: die erweiterte Personenfreizügigkeit im september an der Urne verwerfen! Hat sie jedenfalls, in Überschreitung ihrer Kompetenzen und in undiplomatischer Weise verlautbaren lassen!
>Gruss,
>BGG

Da hat sie ja auch sicher recht, nur scheint das dem SFr nichts anhaben zu können, zumindest dieser COT spricht nicht gerade für einen schwachen SFr.

Gruss

<ul> ~ http://www.futures.tradingcharts.com/cotcharts/SF</ul>

-->Wie werden Emerald und BGG stimmen?

-->es gibt noch genug illegale Aufenthalter auch ohne das!

Alle internationalen Vereinbarungen zur Bekämpfung des Asyl-Missbrauchs könnte man auch ohne die ganze Garnitur Schengen/Dublin/ erweiterte Personenfreizügigkeit haben. Man will nur nicht. Erpressung fast auf der ganzen Linie.

-->Hallo CC,

diesen COT Chart hat mir mal Cosa gezeigt, finde ihn besser, da dort gleich die Nettopos. und der Weekly drauf ist. Aber alles Geschmackssache.
http://www.freecotcharts.com/charts/SF.htm
Auf jeden Fall sind die Commercials mächtig long im Swissi. Wie ausagekräftig das ist weiß ich nicht, zumal die Masse ja wohl im Forexhandel umgeht. Und wer weiß schon wie es da aussieht?

Gruß aus HH, 33°C
McShorty
<ul> ~ Noch ein COT Anbieter</ul>

-->>Hallo CC,
>diesen COT Chart hat mir mal Cosa gezeigt, finde ihn besser, da dort gleich die Nettopos. und der Weekly drauf ist. Aber alles Geschmackssache.
>http://www.freecotcharts.com/charts/SF.htm
>Auf jeden Fall sind die Commercials mächtig long im Swissi. Wie ausagekräftig das ist weiß ich nicht, zumal die Masse ja wohl im Forexhandel umgeht. Und wer weiß schon wie es da aussieht?
>Gruß aus HH, 33°C
>McShorty


Hallo McS,

danke für den Tip. Wie man an dem Verlauf des Charts gut sehen kann, geht ein Hoch im SFr immer mit einem Rekordbestand an Shorts eiher.
Die Commercials haben naturgemäss immer den längeren Hebel. Sobald sie anfangen zu liefern, drücken sie den Preis. Beim USD waren sie übrigens auch Rekord Short letzte Woche.

Gruss