>Sollte er nicht eher fallen als steigen, wenn sich die Weltkonjunktur stärker abschwächt?
>Gibt es irgendwo eine aktuelle Elliott-Wave-Analyse?
>Danke für eure Hilfe!
Eine kurzfristige Analyse habe ich zurzeit nicht; mittelfristig, damit meine ich wenige bis mehrere Monate, muss er auf über 40 $ steigen, eher 50 - 60. Meine Langfristanalyse aus Mai 1999 (auf meiner Seite unter"Analysen") hat weiterhin Gültigkeit. Damals, bei etwa 16 $, sagte ich"über 40 $". Bis etwa 37 ging er, aber das war's noch nicht.
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sorry für das Formatierungsdesaster (Drag & Flop!) Unten der Original-Link, liest sich einfacher...
Oil Rises Above $30 a Barrel on Expectations for Huge OPEC Output Cut
Friday, January 12, 2001 10:41 AM ET
A WSJ.com News Roundup
NEW YORK -- Crude-oil prices climbed back above $30 a barrel Friday, their
highest level in a month, as producing countries appeared ready to aggressively cut
output.
In an abbreviated session at the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude
settled up 64 cents, or 2.2%, at $30.05 a barrel, just off its intraday high of $30.15.
March crude gained 54 cents, or 1.9%, to $28.76 a barrel.
February heating oil edged up 0.2 cent to 84.21 cents a gallon. February gasoline
climbed 1.23 cents, or 1.4%, to 90.08 cents a gallon.
For the week, February crude oil gained $2.10, gasoline jumped eight cents, but
heating oil lost about two cents.
Crude-oil prices had been steadily rising toward $30 a barrel since Wednesday,
when futures jumped 7% on talk that cuts by the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries could exceed two million barrels a day. The cartel will hold a
ministerial meeting in Vienna on Wednesday.
In the latest signal that OPEC is poised to reduce output, traders said they
expected Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer and exporter, to cut
February volumes to Europe by 15% to 25%. On Thursday, the Saudis informed
buyers that February volumes to Asia would be cut by 10% to 12%. The Saudis
informed Japanese firms Thursday of cuts of 10% to 15% below contracted levels.
"Traders see this early reduction in term volumes as a sign that the Saudis are
willing to take a leadership role in the upcoming output cut," said Peter Beutel,
analyst at Cameron Hanover, Inc.
OPEC Secretary General Ali Rodriguez said the amount of the production cut
would be decided at OPEC's meeting in Vienna, and that some members want a
cut of one million barrels a day, while others are pushing for a cutback of 1.5
million or two million barrels a day.
Some smaller OPEC members such as Qatar and Indonesia said earlier this week
that the market needs a cut of two million barrels a day to balance supply and
demand during the second quarter, when demand softens significantly. But other
producers, such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran, appear to back the
reduction of 1.5 million barrels a day Saudi Arabia appears to prefer.
An OPEC output cut of two million barrels a day could send crude to $34 a barrel,
said John Kilduff, senior vice president at Fimat USA, Inc. And a reduction of 1.5
million barrels a day could keep prices above $30 a barrel"for quite some time," he
said.
OPEC, the cartel responsible for roughly 40% of global oil output, raised daily
production quotas four times last year by a total of 3.7 million barrels in a largely
unsuccessful effort to bring down prices, which soared to 10-year highs. But in
December, prices dropped dramatically on perceptions that global supply was
exceeding demand.
Mr. Rodriguez said that OPEC estimates a current excess of supply in the market
around 1.4 million barrels a day, which aligns with estimates by many market
watchers.
Meanwhile, outgoing Energy Secretary Bill Richardson met with OPEC President
Chakib Khelil, but he said that Mr. Khelil was"noncommittal" to his argument that
output cuts aren't appropriate now.
Mr. Richardson and Loyola de Palacio, European Union commissioner for energy,
released a joint statement warning that deep output cuts"at a time when
inventories are building will increase volatility and raise prices."
In his efforts to influence OPEC members before their Jan. 17 meeting, Mr.
Richardson will meet with officials from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and
Venezuela.
"The United States believes that steep, severe cuts would be very harmful," Mr.
Richardson said.
Also at the Nymex, February natural gas settled down 23.6 cents, or 2.7%, at
$8.472 per million British thermal units, hurt by moderate weather forecasts for the
weekend and softer cash prices.
For the week, natural gas lost about 79 cents, or 8.5%.
The exchange will be closed Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. Floor
trading will resume Tuesday.
<ul> ~ Oil Rises Above $30 a Barrel on Expectations for Huge OPEC Output Cut</ul>
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