Before I go to bed, I thought of one other thing that I thought was important. George Lindsay used to measure bear markets. He called them basic declines. He had a number of terms for their lengths, Subnormal, Short, and Long. In the long category from 1896 to 1977 there were 14 of them. of the 14, 12 lasted 384,400,402,395,414,411,376,402,386,377,406,and 407 days. The other two were the longest. They lasted 446 and 448 days each.
It just so happens that the longest one of the 12 was 414 days and the other two were way out of that range. Taking the all-time high in the DOW of Jan 14th 2000 and adding 448 days, we get Friday April 6th.
I think that target area of the weekend of April 6th to Monday the 9th is our low, with a more likely target of April 9th.

Nite Nite, Larry


Hi Larry,
interesting observation.
The arithmethic mean of the 14 bear markets is 404 days. Assume March 24, 2000 was the top of the bull market (both SPX and NDX had intraday ATHs), add 397 days and you get May 2, 2001. When the current bear market is as long as the longest (448 days) we arrive at June 15, compared to the shortest (376 days) that's April 4.
So the window is 4/4 - 6/15, centered around 5/2.

Manfred



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