Hallo Leute,
es folgt eine Meinung eines mir unbekannten
Bekannten eines (mir ein wenig) Bekannten, mit
dessen Meinung ich aber gute Erfahrungen habe..

Was meint Ihr dazu!?!? Gruss - Jagg

ps. achso, wenn es wer übersetzen sollte - hehe,
wär fein für einige...:)

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I wondered this AM how often we've had a period in
which 30 year bond rates
have risen, while 3 month bill rates have dramatically
fallen.

Went back to 1943 and found that it's a rare
occurrence. This is the only
time in history when bill rates have fallen more than
30% while bond rates
have risen over 5% during a 20 week span.

Only five occasions when bill rates have fallen more
than 25% while bond
rates have risen at all: May/June, 1967; April/May,
2001; July/Aug, 1958;
Jan/Feb, 1972; and May, 1980. The future direction of
long rates was not
auspicious on any of those occasions, eventually
derailing the stock market
in all but 1958. Most ominously, short rates on each
occasion moved
dramatically higher over the coming months as well.

In short, once Fed easing was producing higher long
rates, the easing stopped
and rates continued to move higher, hurting bonds and
often, with a lag,
hurting stocks. Perhaps a sign that the Fed had
overshot their mark, eased
too much, and generated inflationary trends.



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>Hallo Leute,
>es folgt eine Meinung eines mir unbekannten
>Bekannten eines (mir ein wenig) Bekannten, mit
>dessen Meinung ich aber gute Erfahrungen habe..
>Was meint Ihr dazu!?!? Gruss - Jagg
>ps. achso, wenn es wer übersetzen sollte - hehe,
>wär fein für einige...:)
>-------Zitat-----------
>I wondered this AM how often we've had a period in
>which 30 year bond rates
>have risen, while 3 month bill rates have dramatically
>fallen.
>Went back to 1943 and found that it's a rare
>occurrence. This is the only
>time in history when bill rates have fallen more than
>30% while bond rates
>have risen over 5% during a 20 week span.
>Only five occasions when bill rates have fallen more
>than 25% while bond
>rates have risen at all: May/June, 1967; April/May,
>2001; July/Aug, 1958;
>Jan/Feb, 1972; and May, 1980. The future direction of
>long rates was not
>auspicious on any of those occasions, eventually
>derailing the stock market
>in all but 1958. Most ominously, short rates on each
>occasion moved
>dramatically higher over the coming months as well.
>In short, once Fed easing was producing higher long
>rates, the easing stopped
>and rates continued to move higher, hurting bonds and
>often, with a lag,
>hurting stocks. Perhaps a sign that the Fed had
>overshot their mark, eased
>too much, and generated inflationary trends.

Passt zu meiner Einschätzung für die langfristigen Zinsen: RAUF.

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