Nein, nicht d e r Kaplan, der früher immer so super extrem bullish war....interessant der Abschnitt über Silber.


GENERAL COMMENTS:

As volatile and interesting as yesterday was, today we revisited the summer doldrums, at least in the precious metals and, more or less, in the currency markets. The recent"firmness" in the gold and silver persisted, with fractionally higher closes in each. Platinum was lower, and still looks to go lower while palladium was a bit higher as industrial and commercial accounts bought just a bit.

Lease rates in the metals remain quite low, a rather bearish signal for the market but the long speculators have now proven themselves not to be the very weak hands that could be easily be shaken out of the market.



The gold and silver markets still are enslaved to the Forex market where the USD determines whether we will close higher or lower. And, we are waited, with baited breath, for real demand to emerge in these markets. One might imagine that the recent decline in the Yen might encourage the Japanese public to buy platinum, as a hedge against their declining currency, but that might not happen.



I, for one, am getting very tired of reporting news from Russia as it more resembles a circus than an important world supplier of necessary products. For example, Mr. Sergey Lysenko, deputy chief spokesman of the State Customs Committee, said"Exporters have not told us about any problems. The exports are under way". While, simultaneously, the Finance Ministry announced that precious metals exports had not yet resumed and that Almaz was unable to start delivering its September commitments to the marketplace. It seems totally improbable that such machinations are not completely orchestrated and deliberate. Trust me, the PGM's are going lower. Every industry on the planet that could possibly replace platinum and palladium with another metal will make plans to do so in the face of such uncertainty. And, the funny thing is that the Russians believe that such ludicrous antics may help their cause by raising prices.



Barclay's Capital had an interesting note about the effect of large speculators on the current relatively market conditions in the gold market. The movement in such positions, as per the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, had a 79% correlation to the spot price this year compared to an average of -2% over the past 5 years. As such funds are basically the only"players" and the small speculators no longer have interest in gold, the above statistics are understandable. And very instructive in determining the future trend for gold. Take careful heed of such.



The next Bank of England auction is a week away and another 20 tons will be offered. As is the historic trend, prices will tend to be weaker than normal, as large traders have done well by selling gold in front of the auction and covering their positions at the event. However, this tendency of prices has been moderating of late and I would believe that such a cyclical phenomenon is best forgotten at present. We are going into the season of greatest demand.



Something is definitely happening in the silver market but I am not quite sure what. But, it would appear that higher prices seem to be imminent as (1) London is now trading at a large premium to the New York spot price, perhaps as much as 3 to 4 cents at present, and (2) the technical charts are looking better to me than they have in a long time. It may be the right time for a real sharp, very short lived short covering rally. Lets hope so, as traders who follow our recommendations are long.



Three pieces of news from South Africa. One is that the Rand is still hovering near all time, since dawn of creation lows, a negative for gold as producers, who sell in USD but pay their expenses in Rand, are encouraged to forward sell. Next is that a strike continues, into its fourth week at Northam Platinum, the fourth largest platinum producer, by the National Union of Mineworkers. And lastly, AngloGold, who is buying everything in sight outside of South Africa (gee...wonder why??), is attempting to buy an Australian gold producer. The market took no notice of the tender offer however as both firms are already active hedgers in the gold market.






GOLD



I would believe that from here on in, the value of the USD, the movement of the US equity markets and the lease rates will play a greater role than the formerly lopsided internal structure of the market. If the USD holds to some extent, it looks like we will test the upper side of the trading range in gold, and traders who follow our recommendations are ready for such.



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SILVER



Sometimes traders trade their systems, sometimes traders trade the charts, and sometimes traders trade their guts. I just gotta feeling we are going higher. The best season for demand is soon upon us and the technical formation on the charts is improving. Option premiums are still quite high and holders of silver should contact our offices for specific advice.



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PLATINUM



Yes, perhaps I had forgotten that once this market gets going, no much will stand in its way. The volatility is enormous and every news story, fact, or rumored innuendo seems to have an outsized effect. I believe that long term we are going lower, but short-term, anything could happen. But, the average speculator does not belong in a market with this volatility.



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CONTACT:
Email: Leonard Kaplan Tel: (847) 733-8400 Fax: (847) 733-8958




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