-->The Saudis have now lined up with the rest of the OPEC cartel in implicitly suggesting that the old reference benchmark of $22-$28 was less than fair. From this flows a simple but dramatic conclusion: It is highly unlikely that we shall see an"October surprise" in which the Saudis flood the crude oil market in order to bring prices down sharply and thereby help ensure a Bush re-election. ...
the vast majority of Wall Street oil analysts, indeed, the oil companies themselves, have continued to base their forecasts on the old OPEC targeted price range of $22-$28 per barrel in spite of increasing evidence of looming supply shortages....all suggest that OPEC may finally be acknowledging the new reality: Depletion dynamics --...declines in production of existing fields regardless of demand or increased capital expenditure to improve them -- have now come to the fore. Investment aimed at newer, smaller reservoirs and improving existing fields will not be enough to overcome these depletion dynamics....
The US government itself has now raised its central forecast for crude to average $37 a barrel over the next 18 months. Just 3 months ago, it had forecast crude falling below $30 a barrel. Strong growth in global energy demand, <font color=#FF0000>a loss of capacity in some OPEC states, and rising depletion rates will all continue to contribute to a much tighter market.</font>
Hmm, fragt sich jetzt nur noch, ob Crude oder Gasoline (US-Markt) besser laufen wird; hat wer eine Idee, wie man am Besten gehebelt von Gasoline profitieren kann?
Gruss,
Sorrento
<ul> ~ http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp</ul>
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