DT
12.11.2007, 21:13 |
Der nächste Bank Run (in USA): ETrade (mTuL) (o.Text)Thread gesperrt |
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DT
12.11.2007, 21:17
@ DT
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Hier der Text: (mT) |
-->Man sieht nur keine Schlangen, weil ETrade eine rein elektronische Bank ist.
GruĂź DT
Stocks in the News November 12, 2007, 2:35PM EST
E*Trade's Meltdown
The stock price gets slashed in half after the online brokerage says it can't predict new credit losses. Will customers stick around?
by Ben Steverman
After its stock's value was cut in half Nov. 12, E*Trade Financial (ETFC) rushed to reassure customers and investors that its deteriorating financial situation wouldn't be fatal for the firm.
The problem is that E*Trade had very little to say. No one, including E*Trade execs, really knows how bad things can get.
On Nov. 9, news arrived of more hits to the online brokerage's $3-billion portfolio of credit derivatives. In October, E*Trade announced almost $200 million in losses due to the tough credit conditions, prompted by worries about risky mortgage debt. Now, thanks to rating agency downgrades and more problems in the credit markets, the company says it can't stick by those figures or its previous earnings predictions.
"Actual securities-related losses will depend on future market developments, including the potential for future downgrades by rating agencies, which are extremely difficult to predict in this environment," the company said in a statement."Accordingly, management believes it is no longer beneficial to provide earnings expectations for the remainder of the year."
E*Trade is essentially saying,"We don't know how bad things could get," says Morningstar (MORN) analyst Patrick O'Shaughnessy."That uncertainty is letting Wall Street's imagination run."
And run they did — run away. In the early afternoon on Nov. 12, E*Trade shares were off 55%, trading below $4 after closing the previous session at $8.59. In June, the stock traded above $25.
In perhaps the scariest assessment of E*Trade's situation, Citigroup (C) analyst Prashant Bhatia downgraded the stock to sell from hold, and placed the probability of bankruptcy at 15%. He worried that the recent news would cause customers to pull their money out of E*Trade bank accounts.
The federal government insures deposits up to $100,000 for each bank customer, but half of E*Trade's deposits, or $15 billion, are over that mark, Bhatia says. There may other protections for E*Trade account holders,"But in our view customers may withdraw assets first, and ask questions later," Bhatia wrote. That would create a classic"run on the bank" scenario and could force E*Trade to sell its assets to give customers back their cash.
E*Trade tried to prevent this by sending an email to E*Trade customers Nov. 12."We could absorb an immediate write down in excess of $1 billion and still remain well-capitalized," the note from President Jarrett Lilien read."It is our expectation that news in the market will get worse before it gets better, and, armed with these expectations, we are taking prudent measures to effectively manage the company's balance sheet," he added.
Bhatia estimates that if E*Trade were forced to liquidate its portfolio, it could sustain more than $5 billion in losses.
However, this is a worst case scenario. The immediate concern is $450 million in assets that are considered the riskiest of E*Trade's holdings. Of those, about $50 million was recently downgraded by credit ratings agencies, and more downgrades could be on the way.
Morningstar's O'Shaughnessy says huge losses above the $1 billion threshold are within"the realm of possibility," but unlikely."It's hard for me to see where that billion dollars could come from," he says.
The irony for E*Trade is that its credit losses arrive as its core business — offering a range of financial services through a bank and online brokerage — hums along. On Nov. 12, E*Trade reported results from October showing total client assets up 4% and its strongest trading volume ever.
The weak balance sheet combined with the strong business results lead some to think E*Trade could be a takeover target. But a buyout might have to wait a while, until the potential credit losses become clearer. Until then, buyers may be very wary.
Steverman is a reporter for BusinessWeek's Investing channel.
http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=6m&type=CONNECTLINE&dsc=abs&ind0=VOLUME&¤cy=&&lSyms=ETFC.NAS&lColors=0x000000&sSym=ETFC.NAS&hcmask=
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Albrecht
12.11.2007, 23:00
@ DT
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Wie sind die Kunden in solch einem Fall geschĂĽtzt? |
-->Hallo DT,
muĂź ein Kunde um sein Depot fĂĽrchten bei solch einer Meldung?
Ich denke, daß nur Geldeinlagen gefährdet sind.
Die Aktien der Kunden sind doch von einem Konkurs der Bank geschützt oder täusche ich mich da?
GruĂź
Albrecht
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CaptainB
12.11.2007, 23:11
@ Albrecht
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wer handelt heute noch echte Aktien? Die CFD's gehen wohl eher in den Kamin... (o.Text) |
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DT
12.11.2007, 23:16
@ Albrecht
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Schutz 100 TUSD cash durch FDIC und 500 TUSD mittels SIPC fĂĽr Securities (mT) |
-->Investor assets in E-Trade accounts said to be safe
By Greg Morcroft
Nov 12, 2007 15:54:00 (ET)
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- As investors shaved more than half the value from E-Trade Financial Corp. shares Monday, financial advisers, regulators and the company said that account holders have several layers of protection, and in general do not have to fear that the current problems will cause customers losses.
"Brokers are highly regulated and SIPC insurance is in place, meaning that their assets are safe," said John Deyeso, a certified financial planner at Financial Filosophy.
He added that the insurance does not protect against losses due to market drops, but it does protect against brokers going out of business or not being able to supply the investments on demand.
Shares of E-Trade (ETFC, Trade ) lost more than half their value Monday, plunging as the company faces more subprime-related write-downs and as analysts at Citigroup suggest a possible bankruptcy for the online broker.
The SIPC is the Securities Investor Protection Corporation. It is the first line of defense in the event a brokerage fails owing customers cash and securities missing from customer accounts.
E-Trade is a member of the SIPC, and as such, its protections cover securities customers up to $500,000, including $100,000 for claims for cash, E-Trade said Monday.
"SIPC does not cover individuals who are sold worthless stocks and other securities," according to the company's Web site. Rather,"SIPC helps individuals whose money, stocks and other securities are stolen by a broker or put at risk when a brokerage fails for other reasons." Read more about SIPC.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insures deposits at E-Trade Bank to at least $100,000, the company added.
E-Trade also said that its E-Trade Clearing LLC unit has insurance from London insurers that provides additional protection, with an aggregate limit of $600 million, to pay amounts in addition to those returned in a SIPC liquidation under certain circumstances. This coverage does not protect against loss of the market value of securities, E-Trade disclosed.
On Sunday, Citigroup downgraded the online broker's shares to sell and raised the specter of bankruptcy, and now retail investors may be wondering what they should do with their E-Trade accounts.
"Bankruptcy risk cannot be ruled out," Citi analysts wrote in a note Sunday. They also lowered E-Trade's rating to sell.
Citi's Prashant Bhatia, in a move criticized by E-Trade as irresponsible, cautioned that there is a higher probability that customers will start a run on the firm's bank, given the worries that it may be beyond repair.
Clients have other options, such as moving assets to competing brokerages, Bhatia said.
The analyst added that active traders, who are a segment that is in tune with daily market events, generate a large proportion of E-Trade's activity and earnings
"The continued negative news flow could be a catalyst to transfer assets out of E-Trade," according to Bhatia.
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