black elk
09.02.2001, 07:25 |
'War Cycles' - Was haltet ihr davon?Thread gesperrt |
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Israel/ Arabische Welt als Auslöser für Ã-lkrise, Edelmetallhausse und Hyperinflation?
black elk
<ul> ~ War Cycles</ul>
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black elk
09.02.2001, 11:02
@ black elk
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Hier die Gedanken von 'NDXBear' vom Chrystal Ball |
..er war anscheinend in Vietnam dabei, schreibt er jedenfalls. Er sieht die Sache im Nahen Osten jedenfalls realistischer als mancher Träumer. Ich schreibe nicht immer wieder über dieses Thema weil mich Araber und Juden so interessieren, sondern weil ich glaube der nächste Krieg mit ABC Waffen kann nur dort oder mit Einmischung von Russen, Chinesen, USA stattfinden. Longwaves bei Ã-l + Gold + Zinsen kündigen eine Wende an. Sie muß nicht direkt vor der Tür stehen. Ein Zeitfenster ist schwer zu definieren, kann also noch ein paar Monate dauern..
Hier der Text:
In case anyone wonders what the Spiritual Warefare Post was all about, I take the liberty to post it below. Each reader will have to decide if I took sides writing it! By the way, I am not Jewish, but would not mind if I were Jewish or Arabic. That's because I believe the truth is knowable by men and that love can only operate successfully within the limits of the truth. Best to leave it there. We are OT enough already!
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Today is Feb 7th, 2001. It is a day for change. US stock markets, rocked by energy prices, are about to tremble as the result of Middle Eastern conflict that will disable or destroy the majority of the world's OIL RESERVES. War in this area will be different from Desert Storm. The 1967 war will be the model and it will be over before Bush Jr. has time to move any forces. Powell and Cheney will only be observers this time. Israel will not accept near defeat without playing the Nuclear card in places where there will be the most LONG TERM economic damage for its enemies: the oil fields!
Below are articles from the Jerusalem Post. Notice that many of the quotes and references are so similar to our own Professor's statements. The participants do think and say these things about each other! Thanks for the education, Prof. These things are directly effecting out equities markets now and in the near future. But why?
Israel is 1/600 the size of the surrounding lands. It has no natural resources of note, except its people when contrasted with the nations all around them. What's the big deal over there? Why does anyone care? What is at stake besides OIL?
I see it as spiritual warfare and it is affecting the whole world! Why?
Surah 2:255..."Allah! There is no God save him, the Alive, the Eternal..."
Deuteronomy 4:35..."The Lord (Jahweh/Elohim), he is God; there is none else beside him..."
There are so many differences between the two as described in the Bible and the Koran, that Allah cannot be the God of the Bible. Monotheists, maybe, but clearly not the same god.
That explains why they will be fighting each other forever to death, even if they do not understand why. And this is the reason our world markets are about to be severely effected by this dispute of desert tribes in a remote and barren part of the world: spiritual warfare that involves us all.
Today's Newspaper clippings:
Syria: Sharon win is a declaration of war
February, 07 2001
"The election of Ariel Sharon is a declaration of war," the Syrian government newspaper al-Baath said in a preliminary reaction to last night's 25-percent election victory by Ariel Sharon over Prime Minister Ehud Barak.
The newspaper continued, saying,"Israel has chosen a path of escalation and terror. This is the most dangerous situation the region has found itself in since the beginning of the Arab-Israel conflict. There is no room for negotiations for the time being."
The newspaper called on the Palestinians to continue the intifada.
"Sharon is a man of blood," the head of the Syrian press agency said, adding,"Peace will only be achieved if Syria is strong."
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And:
Iraq slams Israel, sets up fighting unit
February, 07 2001
Saying it did not recognize any Israeli government, Likud led, or otherwise, Iraq lashed out at Israel today, according to media reports.
"'No' to a regime for the Zionist entity (Israel) in the heart of the Arab nation and 'no' to the existence of Zionism in the Arab nation," Iraqi Revolutionary Command Council member General Ali Hassan al-Majeed said today in response to yesterday's election of Prime Minister-elect Ariel Sharon.
"You should not ask me about a Zionist regime, you should have asked me about a Palestinian state," Majeed snapped at reporters when asked his opinion of Sharon's election.
Majeed made the statements at the inaguration of a new military unit of the ruling Baath Party in Baghdad.
"This is the first unit we are setting (up) as part of the al-Quds (Jerusalem) army to liberate Palestine," Majeed said, referring to the unit, reportedly made up of thousands of Iraqis volunteering to fight with the Palestinians against Israel in a wider conflict.
A- Thawra, Baath party newspaper and government mouthpiece, said the Israeli elections were"a game meant to put pressure on the Palestinians to accept unjust Zionist solution to their problem".
"We say to all those who are busy with the game of elections that the most dangerous thing, regardless of the results, is the so-called 'peace process'," the paper said.
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was quoted by Iraqi media today as saying that all Jews who immigrated to Israel after 1948 War of Independence should leave, while Jews who lived there before that date could stay.
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Personally, I do not see the"stand off" lasting much longer and neither do our US intelligence sources. When was the last time US Patriot Missle Batteries operated by US military people were in place in Israel? Think about it!
Maybe pray about it!
black elk
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ManfredF
09.02.2001, 11:13
@ black elk
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vielleicht ist auch das Grund für Commercials-Shorts (owT) |
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black elk
09.02.2001, 11:19
@ ManfredF
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Hmm wie bei Desert Storm?!! |
Hi,
ich werde nochmal ein bißchen Weltuntergangsstimmung verbreiten. Über das 'Third Temple Scenario' Israels hatte ich ja schon berichtet (will mich nicht ständig wiederholen), behandelt das Thema eines nuklearen Erstschlags. Wie lange kann Israel noch warten? Irgendwann gibt es die islamische Bombe.
DAzu folgender Text:
ISRAELI NUCLEAR WEAPONS
In a book titled"The Sampson Option" by Seymour M. Hersh (Pulitzer prize winning author), he describes in great detail how the Israeli's have developed and amassed between 200 and 300 nuclear weapons of all types, including the advanced"neutron bombs". These were produced in a secret nuclear production facility called Dimona in the Negev desert. The confirmation of this remarkable story was provided by a technician at the Dimona plant called Mordechai Vanunu. He included 57 color photos of the inside of the plant that were included in a story published in England by the Sunday Times newspaper on October 5, 1986. These photos were authenticated by nuclear scientists in both England and the United States as genuine and provided valuable intelligence about the nuclear weapons program in Israel. According to the Sunday Times of London, he was enticed out of England by an Israeli agent code-named Cindy Hanin Bentor (now Cindy Ben Tov of Orlando) and later kid-napped in Rome, Italy. He was spirited out of Italy in an electronic surveillance vessel and later tried in Israel as a traitor during a secret trial and sentenced to an 18 year term, where he still remains in solitary confinement at the Ashkelon prison in Israel.
He is held in secret because Israel cannot allow his story to be verified, at any cost. If it were, the Arab nations around Israel could successfully lobby the world community for nuclear weapons to counter the Israeli threat and achieve a regional balance of power. The Arab nations also having nuclear weapons would vastly complicate our world. Additionally, according to the Symington-Glen amendment of 1977, Israel would lose all foreign aid from the United States if it was verified that they had nuclear weapons. Because of these, and possibly other reasons, Israel cannot afford to allow their nuclear capability be absolutely verified. Make no mistake, Israel definitely has the nuclear weapons to destroy the entire Arab world, but will they use them?
Why would Israel counter this nerve gas attack with nuclear weapons. Both are considered weapons of mass destruction and one could say they were just responding in-kind. I believe it is much deeper and more complex than this. I believe that something runs very deep in the Jewish psyche known as the"holocaust syndrome". Since the"holocaust" or mass destruction of Jewish people during World War II, they have been extremely sensitive about the use of"gas weapons", probably because their people were exterminated by the Nazi's using"gas chambers" at the extermination camps. I believe this one fact of history runs far deeper in the minds and souls of the Jewish people than even they may realize or admit. The first nuclear weapon produced by Israel supposedly had the inscription"never again" inscribed on the warhead. This indicates that they will"never again" allow their people to be treated in such a horrific manner and their nuclear weapons arsenal guarantees this desire and proclamation. Public statements made in Israel since have verified this attitude.
This is why Seymour M. Hersh titled his recent book"The Sampson Option". He postulated that Israel would destroy an enemy with nuclear weapons, even if it meant their own destruction. Sampson in the Old Testament destroyed his enemies by collapsing the temple and killing them and himself, a self-destructive act. This may very well be the reason that a gas or nerve agent attack against Israel would result in them retaliating with a nuclear"holocaust", thereby exercising the"Sampson Option" and triggering their own self-destruction. The Jews have a history of mass self destruction as evidenced by the suicide at Massada. A similar mass suicide of Jews occurred in York, England when fifteen hundred Jews, including men, women and children shut themselves up and each father killed his family and then himself. Because of these events and the terrible loss of life during the holocaust and the Jewish reaction to it, I believe the Jews truly may be capable of exercising this self-destructive"Sampson Option" if sufficiently provoked or attacked.
What effect would this event (a nuclear war in the middle east) have on the rest of the world? I believe that there would be widespread public outrage, horror and an intense desire to retaliate. There would also be far-reaching economic turmoil and collapse.
AFTERMATH OF THE NUCLEAR ATTACK
Imagine, if you will, that Iraq attacks Israel with chemical weapons and the Jews figuratively undergo a psychotic break and retaliate against the Arab world with their nuclear arsenal. The effect would be devastating to the Arab nations and to the world-at-large. Arabs would suffer immediately and terribly but everyone else would also suffer, only in different ways. Remember that the world gets the bulk of it's oil from the Arab countries around Israel. If the Israeli's used nuclear weapons in this area, oil production would stop immediately and would require years to resume because of the radiation contamination. Who would want to try and ship oil from a nuclear wasteland? The Israeli's could also target the oilfields with nuclear weapons and their destruction would stop production for decades, if not forever.
The impact on the rest of the world would be immediate and devastating. The world's economic structure would collapse with stock markets, and possibly even weaker banks, crashing overnight. The loss of this much of the worlds energy would grind industry and commerce to a virtual standstill. Food production would be put in jeopardy because of the use of oil for fertilizers and other farm chemicals, to say nothing of the need for fuel for tractors, machinery and transportation. Try and remember, if you were old enough, the OPEC oil embargo and the long gas lines and gas stations running out of gasoline. This could be much worse and longer lasting.
black elk
PS: Wenn auch nur annähernd so etwas passiert, dann bekommt Prechter (und jemand anders..) schnell Recht, was ist dann besser Bargeld oder Gold? Wie könnte man eine Massenpanik am besten überstehen. Leute ich habe bisher nur so ein Gefühl, aber ein sehr schlechtes.
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ManfredF
09.02.2001, 11:26
@ black elk
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Re: Hmm wie bei Desert Storm?!!/Ja, nur noch schlimmer (owT) |
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Ecki1
09.02.2001, 15:44
@ black elk
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Positionierung? |
Ein NEMP (Nuclear Electro-Magnetic Pulse) würde im Umkreis von einigen hundert Kilometern Rechnerkapazitäten und Telekommunikation lahmlegen und so einen gross angelegten Schuldnerausfall provozieren (mal ganz abgesehen von den furchtbaren Folgen für Mensch und Umwelt). Danach Deflation, anschliessend Hyperinflation.
Wegen des schwer abzuschätzenden Zeitrahmens ist im Spannungsfall eine Positionierung in Bargeld und Gold empfehlenswert, allerdings nicht notwendigerweise gleich zu Beginn von Auseinandersetzungen, eher schon bei den ersten beschwichtigenden Meldungen oder «Durchhalteparolen» in den Medien. Wie die vergangenen grösseren Konflikte zeigen, treten die schwersten Schäden erst kurz vor Waffenstillstand auf: 1945 amerikanischer Atombombenabwurf über japanischen Grosstädten, «chirurgische Kriegsführung» im Irak und in Serbien auch erst kurz vor Aussetzung der Kampfhandlungen. Der Trend geht wie bei Kursbewegungen an den Börsen vom Vorgeplänkel über die Gewöhnung zur Übertreibung und erst dann zur Umkehr,
glaubt Ecki1 zu erkennen
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ManfredF
09.02.2001, 15:48
@ Ecki1
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Schuldnerausfall |
kannst Du das etwas erläutern?
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ManfredF
09.02.2001, 15:53
@ black elk
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Raytheon klettert auch wieder (owT) |
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black elk
09.02.2001, 15:57
@ Ecki1
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Re: Positionierung? |
Hi Eckil,
die anderen sind wohl schon auf der Autobahn.. Also die Idee/These mit einem Konflikt im Nahen Osten nehme ich sehr ernst, allerdings kann man mit Hilfe der Charttechnik nur vermuten, daß eine Ã-lkrise oder eine Unterbrechung der Ã-lversorgung einen Crash auslösen könnte. Das ist also eher eine Hypothese, allerdings nicht aus Traumdeutung oder Bibelinterpretation (obwohl letztere in diesem Fall auch weiterhelfen könnte), sondern ich gehe der Frage nach: Warum könnte Ã-l, Zinsen + Gold in den nächsten 1-3 Monaten eine langfristige Wende vollziehen. Es könnte natürlich auch andere harmlosere Gründe geben, wie Kreditverknappung, Bonitätsverlust oder einfach nur eine Verkaufspanik bei Aktien. Das würde allerdings nicht die mögliche Ã-lpreishausse erklären. Es ist nicht so sicher, daß sie jetzt schon kommt. Momentan bestehen allerdings gute Chancen, daß eine 3 bereits gestartet ist.
Ich habe mich mit den Kondratieff Cycles bisher nur am Rande beschäftigt, kann also nicht sagen wie akurat sie für das Timing sind. Die Graphik von heute morgen 'War Cycles' finde ich schon irgendwie interessant. Warum sollte auch Gold (auch wenn es vorher noch unter 200 USD gehen könnte) steigen, wenn nicht durch eine Massenpanik?
Übrigens versuche ich einfach nur die Realität zu sehen, ob wir alle irgendwann draufgehen oder kein Ã-l mehr oder sonst was, darauf habe ich keinen Einfluß. Wer sein Leben nicht lebt, der darf sich hinterher auch nicht beschweren. Wenn ich immer meine Gefühle ausgelebt habe, dann brauche ich mir nicht vorzuwerfen. Und genau das tue ich. Also think positiv bis zum bitteren Ende..
black elk
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Ecki1
09.02.2001, 16:25
@ ManfredF
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Re: Schuldnerausfall |
Die Frage von black elk war, ob im Krisenfall Gold besser sei als Bargeld oder umgekehrt, und ich meinte, man müsse dann beide Positionen halten. Begründung s.o.
Gruss: Ecki1
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Ecki1
09.02.2001, 16:58
@ black elk
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Re: Positionierung? |
Ã-l auf 60 $ / Bl. kann auch durch eine Dollar-Abwertung gegenüber anderen wichtigen Weltwährungen verursacht werden. Ich will mich ebensowenig wie Du durch düstere Szenarien aus der Fassung bringen lassen und nehme angesichts der erwiesenermassen hohen Fehlschlagsquote und wegen der meist verwaschenen Ausdrucksweise von Prophezeihungen solche lediglich zur Kenntnis. Wichtig sind für mich dagegen Trends, die durch Prophezeihungen, Projektionen und Vorhersagen ausgelöst werden, wie etwa die Jahr-2000-Panik mit der anschliessenden Erleichterungs-Hausse in Moskau.
Gruss: Ecki1
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