Japanische Bonds günstig abzugeben

verfasst von Erwin, 16.08.2000, 09:45

Erstaunlich wenige Leute machen sich
wg. der Dimension der jap. Staatsschuld
(130% des GDP) Gedanken.

David Asher, Experte des MIT, scheint noch
über einen halbwegs funktionierenden Taschen-
rechner zu verfügen und beschreibt wahr-
scheinliche Konsequenzen.

Hier Reuters dazu:


Fiscal crisis looming, says MIT expert

TOKYO -- Japan will face a fiscal crisis eventually that could pose a significant threat to the world economy unless it starts soon to rein in its runaway public debt, according to a leading US scholar.

""Japan is facing a national debt burden that is comparable only to countries that have gone through major wars, or Third World nations like Albania,'' said Mr David Asher, a Japan expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

""By any measure that one can find, the Japanese have exceeded the boundaries of fiscal sustainability.''

Worries about Japan's bulging public debt, which is set to approach 130 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, are shared by bodies like the International Monetary Fund.

But they agree generally with the Ministry of Finance that belt-tightening should be delayed until Japan's recovery from a decade of lost growth is entrenched firmly and self-sustaining.

This is where Mr Asher disagrees.

He believes Japan is in such a deep debt trap that the government must announce a three-year fiscal stabilisation plan right away with the aim of returning the Budget to surplus by 2003/04.

Japan boasts the world's largest pool of savings and the government has so far found eager buyers for bonds to fund its deficit.

Mr Asher sees little chance of a bond market meltdown in the next year but says increasing volatility is likely.

Foreigners own only about 5 per cent of Japanese government bonds, but the share will grow as the supply of US Treasuries shrivels, forcing index-based investors to raise their exposure.

The risk, Mr Asher says, is investors will come to realise they have bought bonds issued by a government whose finances are more like those of a developing nation and will pull their money out.

With Japanese debt exceeding 12 per cent of global GDP, he said it was strange that investors were paying little heed to the woes the world economy would face if bond buyers went on strike.

""Disruption in capital flows from Japan would be a huge problem for global capital markets and in particular for the US.

""The American"consumer of last resort' would have a lot less to spend if the spigot from Japan were to start running dry,'' he added.--Reuters

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gesamter Thread:

• Japanische Bonds günstig abzugeben - Erwin, 16.08.2000, 09:45
  • Re: Japanische Bonds günstig abzugeben - dottore, 16.08.2000, 12:15
    • Re: Japanische Bonds günstig abzugeben - JüKü, 16.08.2000, 13:14