Re: eben 'ne mail gelesen: Aktien müssen steigen (vom Maklerbetreuer)... Herr Gott,

verfasst von ManfredZ, 18.01.2002, 11:16

Die ersten 5 Tage sagen wenig aus, der ganze Jänner hingegen schon - Quelle: CB.
Manfred

Perry, here are some stats from Astrikos:
Recently, I've heard more than a few comments about the first five trading days of the year and the so-called 'January effect'. What I've been hearing is that whichever way the market moves in the first five days, that's a signal for the market's direction for the entire year. Intrigued by these comments, I ran a quick test going back to 1990 to see if this really held true. Here are the results...

First Five Trading Days of January
2001 - Forecast Down - Correct
2000 - Forecast Down - Correct
1999 - Forecast Up - Correct
1998 - Forecast Down - Incorrect
1997 - Forecast Up - Correct
1996 - Forecast Up - Correct
1995 - Forecast Up - Correct
1994 - Forecast Up - Incorrect
1993 - Forecast Down - Incorrect
1992 - Forecast Up - Correct
1991 - Forecast Down - Incorrect
1990 - Forecast Up - Incorrect

While it's recently had 6 out of 7 winners, this pattern was only 7 for 12 going back to 1990 - hardly what I'd call a dynamite seasonal play. So don't be fooled by anyone that tells you the rally since December 31st forecasts an up year for 2002. It's hardly a lock.

I did come across some interesting statistics, however, in researching the January effect. One is the simple fact that January has been an up month a high percentage of the time over the past 17 years. Only 3 times since 1985 has the S&P500 not rallied during the month of January. Should this phenomenon remain in effect, we're most likely looking at an S&P500 trading above 1148 come January 31st (CTAs would generally agree, as discussed in this weekend's commentary). Also worth noting is the fact that the performance during January generally does forecast the direction of the market for the entire year. Since 1985, the direction of the S&P500 during January correctly forecasted the overall direction for the entire year 14 out of 17 times. Which proves that it's the performance of the entire month, not the first five days, that has forecasting capability.

January Effect
2001 - Forecast Up - Incorrect
2000 - Forecast Down - Correct
1999 - Forecast Up - Correct
1998 - Forecast Up - Correct
1997 - Forecast Up - Correct
1996 - Forecast Up - Correct
1995 - Forecast Up - Correct
1994 - Forecast Up - Incorrect
1993 - Forecast Up - Correct
1992 - Forecast Down - Incorrect
1991 - Forecast Up - Correct
1990 - Forecast Down - Correct
1989 - Forecast Up - Correct
1988 - Forecast Up - Correct
1987 - Forecast Up - Correct
1986 - Forecast Up - Correct
1985 - Forecast Up - Correct

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gesamter Thread:

• eben 'ne mail gelesen: Aktien müssen steigen (vom Maklerbetreuer)... Herr Gott, - Masochismus- Ricoletto, 18.01.2002, 01:48
  • Re: eben 'ne mail gelesen: Aktien müssen steigen (vom Maklerbetreuer)... Herr Gott, - JüKü, 18.01.2002, 01:52
    • Jürgen, mir geht es um diese blinde Gutgläubigkeit und eben um das Fest- - Ricoletto, 18.01.2002, 02:00
      • Re: Jürgen, mir geht es um diese blinde / Volle Zustimmung! owT - JüKü, 18.01.2002, 08:42
  • Re: eben 'ne mail gelesen: Aktien müssen steigen (vom Maklerbetreuer)... Herr Gott, - Emerald, 18.01.2002, 10:17
    • Re: eben 'ne mail gelesen: Aktien müssen steigen (vom Maklerbetreuer)... Herr Gott, - Euklid, 18.01.2002, 10:43
  • 73% sind nicht 100%. Man stelle sich vor,... - Taktiker, 18.01.2002, 10:30
  • Re: eben 'ne mail gelesen: Aktien müssen steigen (vom Maklerbetreuer)... Herr Gott, - ManfredZ, 18.01.2002, 11:16