Ã-l und das fundamentale Umfeld - supply vs. demand

verfasst von KEEP-COOL, 26.01.2002, 20:03

Gasoline Supply Disruption Is Less Likely This Spring: Outlook
By Stephen Voss


New York, Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. motorists are less likely to be caught by the springtime supply crunches that marked the past two years, economists say. Supplies are at the highest mid-January level since 1999 and refiners are retooling to make more of the fuel weeks earlier than normal.

Mild weather has reduced heating oil demand, giving refiners ample time to convert their units to boost gasoline output. U.S. pump prices reached records in each of the past two years, topping $2 a gallon in some cities, when the difficulty of adhering to new government rules governing warm-weather gasoline formulas, and a spate of pipeline disruptions, kept supplies low.

``There has been an early switch to maximize gasoline yields because of the weak heating oil demand,'' said Sheryl Kaufman, chief economist at Phillips Petroleum Co., a refiner based in Bartlesville, Oklahoma. ``This should make the transition to summer grade smoother than in the past two years.''

Inventories of gasoline held by refiners, the broadest measure of availability, stood at 213.4 million barrels on Jan. 18, according to the American Petroleum Institute, the highest level since last July and higher than in all of 2000.

New formulations caused shortages in 2000 of various kinds of cleaner-burning gasoline required by the Environmental Protection Agency. Supplies were particularly low in the Midwest, where there were few refineries to make the blends unique to the region. Pump prices rose above $2 a gallon in Chicago and Milwaukee because of shortages.

Boutique Gasoline

Clean air regulations and local rulings mean that about 16 different types of gasoline are used in the U.S. That number is multiplied by three, when you include regular, mid- and premium grades.

``The longer you have experience with the `boutique' fuels the easier it is'' for refineries to make them, Kaufman said. Prices for regular gasoline peaked at a record $1.71 a gallon in May last year, averaged nationwide, and rose as high as $1.68 in June 2000, according to the Energy Department. This week, pump price were down to $1.11 a gallon.

``It's a little bit early to declare victory but things are looking better than in the past few years,'' said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst at IFR Pegasus in New York.

``I don't think we will see a $1.71 national average for retail gasoline again this spring,'' Evans said. ``We will be lucky if the average gets as high as $1.25. Of course there will be local variations, but I don't expect that we'll see the high levels of the past few years.''

Falling Margins

Slim profit margins and lower-than-normal demand for heating fuels are forcing refiners such as Valero Energy Corp., the second- largest U.S. oil refiner, and Sunoco Inc. to trim output.

``Heating oil inventories are high and a lot of refiners like ourselves are cutting crude runs,'' said Gene Edwards, senior vice president of product supply and trading at San Antonio-based Valero.

The company said it has reduced January crude oil processing at its 12 refineries by 265,000 barrels a day from a total capacity of 1.5 million, and plans to lower February processing even more.

Philadelphia-based Sunoco said it cut back production as margins at its Northeast refineries fell 60 percent from a year ago to $2.79 a barrel. Margins are the difference between the cost of crude oil and earnings from selling gasoline and other refined products.

Refiners are taking advantage of the lull in demand and heating oil supplies that are up 28 percent from a year ago to perform seasonal maintenance earlier than usual. That will probably leave most units ready to crank out gasoline when margins improve as wholesalers and retailers stock up for the summer driving season, when demand peaks.

``You can't justify running some refineries with the low margins,'' Phillips' Kaufman said.

Less Volatility

While there's always a chance of supply disruptions caused by such events as explosions at refineries or pipeline leaks, the supply cushion should keep price volatility low this year, analysts said.

``The regulations, limited supplies and other issues came together to create a perfect storm in the gasoline markets'' in the past two years, Evans said. ``This spring, there may be just a rain shower.''


Gruss

K C






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  • Ã-l und das fundamentale Umfeld - supply vs. demand - KEEP-COOL, 26.01.2002, 20:03