Re: Immobilienblase USA? - Beispiel Denver

verfasst von XERXES, 06.02.2002, 11:53

Denver office market picture dark in southeast, northwest

It might take years for vacancies to fade, forum audience told

By John Rebchook, News Real Estate Editor

Color the overall Denver-area office market as"yellow" for caution, with the southeast suburban and the northwest corridor in the"red" zone, where it will likely stay for the next four years.
Only the downtown market is safe with a"green," though even it has seen its vacancy rate more than double in the past year.

These were some of the points that Sharon Barrett, principal of the tenant-rep brokerage firm of Liberty Greenfield, made last week in front of 150 women lawyers, brokers, property managers and lenders attending a national Commercial Real Estate Women, or CREW, meeting at the Hyatt Regency hotel in downtown Denver.

It was the first time CREW held its Winter Conference in Denver, and 80 of the women were CREW delegates from outside of Colorado.

Other experts from California's Silicon Valley, New York City, Boston, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore discussed their markets.

Rick Pederson, president of Foundation Properties Inc., was the keynote speaker, providing an overview on world, national and local economies and how they will impact commercial real estate. Pederson predicted a frustrating"saw-tooth" economy with a number of downturns and recoveries.

Barrett said the overall Denver-area office vacancy rate is 19.3 percent, compared with 14 percent across the nation.

Unlike the '80s and early '90s, high vacancy rates are not caused by overbuilding and aggressive lending practices, Barrett said.

Instead, many tenants in 1999 and 2000 were anticipating annual employment growth of 30 percent to 50 percent and leased too much space. They"did not want to come up short of space and miss their business plans by not having enough physical space to accommodate growth."

But when the high-tech bubble collapsed, they became de facto landlords, overwhelmed with space they need to sublease.

Downtown suffered the least. But even it saw its vacancy rate rise to 11.8 percent at the end of 2001 from 5 percent at the end of 2000, with 1.2 million square feet of subleased space available.

If some of the larger telecommunications or banking anchor tenants downtown don't drop a lot of space on the market, it should take from 2.5 to 3 years to reach the equilibrium of a 10 percent vacancy rate, Barrett said.

Problems, however, remain in the two other major submarkets: southeast suburban and northwest.

Venture capital-backed tenants that over-committed to space and did not deliver drove the market on their business plans, she said.

"Examples are Level 3, XO Communications, 360 Networks and Global Commerce," she said, with Sun Microsystems and Level 3 also putting a lot of space back on the market.

The market may not recover until 2006, she said.

"The northwest market is unknown," Barrett said."The brokers who specialize in this market tell me that there is activity, but with smaller tenants... and their projections are four years to recovery."


February 5, 2002


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gesamter Thread:

• Immobilienblase USA? - XERXES, 06.02.2002, 09:21
  • Re: Immobilienblase USA? - Cosa, 06.02.2002, 11:30
    • Re: Immobilienblase USA? - Beispiel Denver - XERXES, 06.02.2002, 11:53
  • Quelle? (owT) - El Sheik, 06.02.2002, 11:47