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Mix-Ansicht- Fourth Quarter Real GDP - Substantial Upward Revision Likely - Cosa, 25.02.2002, 10:47
Fourth Quarter Real GDP - Substantial Upward Revision Likely
Moin moin,
hier ein Artikel zur möglichen Revision des BIP, die am Donnerstag dieser Woche veröffentlicht wird.
<font size="4">Fourth Quarter Real GDP - Substantial Upward Revision Likely</font>
he fourth quarter advance estimate of real GDP showed a 0.2% seasonally adjusted annualized increase. This in itself was higher-than-expected, particularly in a recession. Recently published data pertaining to assumptions included for December estimates of certain expenditures and revisions of published estimates of December data point to a significant upward revision of real GDP for the fourth quarter.
Starting with retail sales, the original estimate of December retail sales was a 0.1% decline. This has been revised to a 0.2% increase and it included widespread upward revisions of major components. Excluding autos, December retail sales now stand at a 0.7% increase vs. a 0.1% drop. Excluding autos, building materials, food, and gas, retail sales advanced 1.5% in December, up from the original estimate of 0.7%. This should raise consumption spending from an advance estimate of a 5.4% increase to a 5.8% gain. This upward revision of consumption spending raises the growth rate of real GDP by 0.3 points.
The next in line is the trade deficit. In the advance estimate, it was assumed that the goods trade deficit widened by $2.3 billion in December. Actual estimates of December data show a narrowing of the trade gap by $2.9 billion. The quarterly data now suggest that the trade deficit was probably unchanged in the fourth quarter.
Inventories for December were liquidated at slower pace in the retail sector than assumed in the advance estimate, implying another positive impact on real GDP. Based on these estimates, it appears that real GDP probably grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter.
Quelle
Wenn die Revision wirklich in dieser Höhe ausgeht, dann nimmt noch das NBER wohlmöglich die Presseerklärung zurück, in der es die Rezession verkündet hatten und....... Friede, Freude, Eierkuchen.
Oder es kommt wirklich so wie schon Anfang der 80iger Jahre, damals lief zunächst die kürzeste Rezession nach WWII von Januar bis Juli 1980 bevor es zum erneuten, richtigen Abtauchten von Juli 1981 bis November 1982 kam.
schöne Grüsse
Cosa
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