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Mix-Ansicht- Bottleneck bei Oel ist Transport/US-Inflation - Obelix, 24.08.2000, 11:04
Bottleneck bei Oel ist Transport/US-Inflation
Hier der Link dazu:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/
Der relevante Textabschnitt:
Let's talk about oil. There were a handful of nuggets to pass along today. After the API statistics, given the drawdowns that we've seen, U.S. inventories are at a 24-year low. It turns out that"folks in the know" are advising that there is zero spare capacity in tankers and that even if Saudi Arabia, etc. were to increase production (which is, of course, the wrong type of oil for us here in the states) that is cannot be shipped.
Slick talk from Bubba... Apparently, according to the scuttlebutt that I saw, some of the guys in the shipping market are talking about crude in the $50-$60 range. That's certainly not a prediction on my part but I thought it was worth passing along. Do you think the long bond could trade over $6 if oil had a $50 handle in front of it? But given the price of oil just won't go down, Bubba himself got on the tape today and said,"I'm going to do what I can to keep these prices moderated and continue to argue to all the OPEC nations that if the price gets too high it will cause a recession in other countries and then the supply -- the purchase -- will drop dramatically and for a longer period of time."
First we had Fed Governor Poole, then Richardson, then Clinton pleading, and now Clinton is trying to bully the market lower. At the moment they're 0-for-4. Maybe they've finally bumped against a market that they can't diddle. Time will tell.
Noch etwas zu Inflationsstatistik von der selben Site:
I am an executive at a small home building company -- we employ 20 people. Last year, our health insurance premiums rose 14 percent at our renewal date. Just last week, I received a notice from our carrier informing us that our rates would skyrocket by 57 percent at this renewal. They were gracious enough to offer a more restrictive managed care program, and if we chose this plan, our rates would increase by only 40 percent. This is a group-rated plan, and I have been told that our specific loss experience, which has not been unusually high, should not impact our rates very much, if at all. Boy am I glad inflation is less than 3 percent as the government tells us!
Also, our receptionist came to me today, requesting a 20-percent raise because"that is what people in my position are now making," based upon resumes we recently received for a similar position. Lastly, at annual review time, if I offer an average employee a 3-percent raise they just laugh, stating that they deserve more and can get it elsewhere if I do not ante up. Needless to say, our employee costs have ballooned over the last three years also. I am also glad that the BLS says that wages are not a problem because all of my employees are so productive!
Ich glaube, dass koennte die Realitaet recht gut beschreiben, im Gegensatz zu den oeffentlichen Statistiken.
Gruss, obelix
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