Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Ã-lpreis als Frühindikator eines bevorstehenden Konjunkturanstiegs? some news - KEEP-COOL, 02.03.2002, 15:27
- CRB Index und Rohölpreis - KEEP-COOL, 10.03.2002, 00:06
- Rohöl - Dieter, 10.03.2002, 16:12
- Rohöl- und Produktenpreise - der Anstieg kann weiter gehen!! - KEEP-COOL, 13.03.2002, 22:01
- Rohöl- und Produktenpreise haben Korrekturbedarf - KEEP-COOL, 24.03.2002, 21:35
- CRB Index und Rohölpreis - KEEP-COOL, 10.03.2002, 00:06
Ã-lpreis als Frühindikator eines bevorstehenden Konjunkturanstiegs? some news
.... zumindest verändern sich die Ã-l- und Produktpreisstrukturen bei den Forward Notierungen immer stärker von einer contango hin in eine backwardation Struktur. Die Tendenz für weiter ansteigende Notierungen wird hierdurch zunehmend untermauert.
Auf Basis der aktuell auf den Markt fundamental wirkenden Einflüssen ist der Preisanstieg noch nicht schlüssig nachvollziehbar.
Die Raffineriemargen können nur als absolut lausig bezeichnet werden.
Die Ergebnisse im Ã-l- und Chemiebereich tendieren von ausgeglichen bis hin zu negativ.
Einige Raffinerien haben im laufe der vergangenen Woche ihre Raffineriekapazitäten noch weiter reduzieren müssen. Die Produktenläger sind noch immer randvoll.
Dennoch - allein durch derartige Maßnahmen läßt sich die aktuelle angespannte Angebots und Nachfragesituation lösen.
Fazit: Die aktuell ansteigenden Notierungen werden nicht durch eine steigende Nachfrage sondern nur durch die ansteigenden Future Notierungen indiziert.
Dennoch - gerade die aktuelle beobachtete Marktsituation hat man in früheren Umbruchphasen auch beobachten können. In Anschluß an derartiger Phasen hat man in der Tendenz weiter ansteigende Notierungen beobachten können.
Nachlassende Risikoabsicherungen bei Produzenten, Raffinerien, short covering und verstärkte Käufe von Spekulanten, können die Notierungen rasch weiter antreiben. Dazu kommt die Entscheidung der USA, die strategischen Reserven in den kommenden Monaten auffüllen zu wollen.
Ein erhöhtes Kriegsrisiko (IRAK)kann den ansteigenden Trend bei den Rohöl-und Produktnotierungen dann nur noch verstärken.
Und nicht zu vergessen - Die OPEC scheint die Situation im Griff zu haben.
Gruß
K C
Crude Oil Rises on Expectations for Stronger Industrial Demand
By Mark Shenk
New York, March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a 4 1/2- month high after a report that U.S. manufacturing grew last month, signaling demand for petroleum products will strengthen.
U.S. manufacturing expanded in February for the first time in 19 months, an industry group said. Factories use about one-fourth of the products made from crude oil in the U.S. The report came after OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said the group will probably keep production limits in place for the rest of the year.
``The U.S. led the world into recession and should lead it out,'' said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management Inc. in St. Louis. ``You should see more demand from trucking, airlines and industrial operations.''
Crude oil for April delivery rose 66 cents, or 3 percent, to $22.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price for a contract closest to expiration since Oct. 12. Prices gained 6.3 percent this week and have rallied 13 percent this year.
In London, Brent crude oil for April settlement rose 56 cents, or 2.6 percent, to 21.89 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Prices gained 7.5 percent this week.
The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 54.7 last month from 49.9 in January. A reading above 50 signals expansion. The last time the index exceeded that level was July 2000.
``The economy is entering a period of expansion, which will result in increased demand for oil,'' said David Becker, energy derivatives trading manager at Citibank NA in New York.
Oil company shares were among the biggest gainers on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index on expectations that higher fuel demand will bolster profits. Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest oil company, rose 49 cents to $41.79 in late afternoon trading. ChevronTexaco Corp. was 37 cents higher at $84.81.
OPEC and Russia
While crude oil demand may strengthen, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which cut oil output four times in the past 14 months, probably will leave its quotas unchanged for the rest of the year, Rodriguez said.
``Growth in demand will be very modest this year,'' Rodriguez said in a telephone interview from OPEC's Vienna headquarters. ``I believe we will maintain the decision'' to restrict supplies in 2002.
Rodriguez also said he was confident that Russia, the second- biggest oil exporter after OPEC-member Saudi Arabia, will extend its export ceiling through June.
Oil rallied this year after Russia, Norway, Mexico, Angola and Oman joined with members of OPEC in pledging to reduce world supply by about 2 million barrels a day, or 2.5 percent. Russia's share was 150,000 barrels a day.
The secretary-general will meet with oil officials in Moscow next week to try to convince them to extend the export limits.
Even so, Russian oil companies will probably restore exports to pre-January levels in the second quarter, said Alexei Turbin, a spokesman for the Russian energy ministry.
Extending the Cuts
``OPEC officials will be trying to convince us to extend the export cuts,'' Turbin said. ``This is unlikely, as there was no consolidated decision made by oil companies to do so.''
The 10 OPEC members with quotas, all except Iraq, pumped 22.5 million barrels a day in February, down 1.3 percent from a revised January estimate of 22.8 million barrels, said Conrad Gerber of Geneva-based PetroLogistics Ltd., which tracks oil shipments.
Output still was 800,000 barrels a day above the group's quota of 21.7 million barrels a day.
``There should be some slippage in OPEC quota compliance, and Russia appears to be ramping up production,'' Banc of America's Reaser said. ``The wild card is OPEC adherence. Revenue stress in Venezuela and some countries in the Middle East will work against strict adherence'' to the group's production quotas.
Gasoline for April delivery rose 2.82 cents, or 4.2 percent, to 70.6 cents a gallon on the New York exchange, the highest closing price for a contract closest to expiration since Sept. 21. Prices were up 7.4 percent this week. Heating oil for April delivery rose 1.72 cents, or 3 percent, to 58.87 cents a gallon. Prices were up 7.5 percent this week.
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