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Mix-Ansicht- Japanese will return to gold... - Tofir, 08.03.2002, 22:39
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Japanese will return to gold...
Japanese will return to gold
By: Stewart Bailey
Posted: 2002/03/08 Fri 09:07 ZE2 | © Miningweb 1997-2002
PERTH - Gold shares were pushed mercilessly lower over the last trading sessions in New York and Sydney as investors reacted to gold breaking through the key $$290 technical resistance level. At midday in Asia, the spot gold price was still under pressure after long liquidation by Japanese investors, who have switched to a more aggressive equity-focussed investment strategy following the recent strength of the Nikkei.
The ASX gold board fell almost 2 percent during the day's trade, but recovered just before the close to register a 1.2 percent loss. The index followed the lead set last night by the major US gold indices, which took a battering. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index was 4.8 percent weaker and, according to CBS, the Amex Gold Bugs Index was down 4.4 percent and the CBOE Gold Index fell 3 percent.
In New York last night, the South African gold shares were the biggest losers. AngloGold dropped 8.53 percent to $21.65, Gold Fields shed 7.58 percent to $7.80, Harmony gave up 7.33 percent to $8.95 and Durban Roodepoort Deep lost 6 percent to $2.35. The US producers showed less leverage to the falling bullion price. Barrick was 4.04 percent weaker at $17.35, Newmont lost 4.61 percent to end on $24.19 and Placer Dome gave up 4.44 percent $10.54.
Japanese switch
Bullion fell in tandem with a rising share market in Tokyo, which has registered its strongest month-on-month gain in four years. The Nikkei climbed 1.73 percent this morning, bringing its rally over the past month to 28 percent. The stock market has been buoyed by a raft of bullish economic indicators from the US over the past fortnight and yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan to the US Senate, signalling his view that the elusive economic turnaround was already occurring in the US, added grist to the mill for Japanese investors.
Gold, clearly, does not hold the same allure for the Japanese it did a month ago. That was when there appeared to be a headlong flight into physical metal as investors sought safe haven in bullion from a Nikkei Index which was in an unchecked downward spiral. Punters were still reeling from a slew of apocalyptic economic data; consumer spending figures were abysmally low, the economy recorded its biggest drop in manufacturing production since 1975 and 220,000 jobs were in January alone.
Over the past fortnight or so the Japanese market has chosen to take its cue from a clearly resurgent US. Shares in exporting companies, like Toyota and Nissan, are leading the pack on expectations of higher earnings on the back of an anticipated increase in orders from US customers.
They'll be back
Even this morning, the strength in the Japanese market came despite more worrying data underscoring the inherent weakness of the Japanese economy. Gross Domestic Product figures for the fourth quarter showed a 1.2 percent contraction - 50 percent worse than expected - and according to Bloomberg News, giving the Japan its longest spell of economic weakness since Word War II. The country's top companies continue to rack up staggering trading losses and off course, there is still the question of almost $100 billion in bad debts on the books of the country's major banks.
But the reality of the economic woes of Japan is worse than ever and many feel it is only a matter of time before the structural concerns come back to haunt the country's investors. ``The days are gone when America gets better and the world heals. It took Japan 40 years to get into this hole, I don't see why it will take them much less to dig itself out," Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, told Bloomberg News.
With the extent of the Japanese economic rot becoming clearer and more disturbing by the day, you could hardly blame some of the most learned market commentators from predicting Japanese investors will return to the safe haven of gold before too long.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Auch wenn nur ein paar Prozent der Japaner den aufgepumpten Braten riechen und ins Gold flüchten, ist das ein Albtraum für die Shorter. Und andere werden folgen!
Gruss
tofir
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