Are Things Going To Be Looking Up For The Japanese Economy In The 2nd Half?

verfasst von Cosa, 14.03.2002, 13:00

Hi!

hier ein kurzer Artikel und Charts zu Japans Deflation und Geldmengenwachstum.

<font size="4">Are Things Going To Be Looking Up For The Japanese Economy In The 2nd Half?</font>

March 12, 2002
Paul Kasriel

Right now the Japanese economy is looking lower than a snake's belly. But one of my readers e-mailed me with a more upbeat short-term forecast for the second largest economy in the world. And what was the basis of that forecast? Japanese real M2 growth. At the same time that Japan is experiencing deflation, its nominal M2 money supply is starting to grow faster. This combination put year-over-year growth in Japanese real M2 at just over 5% in January -- the highest real M2 growth since late 1990 (see Chart 2).

Chart 1


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So, Japanese real M2 is growing faster now. Should we care? Chart 3 says we should. When advanced by six months, there is a correlation between Japanese real M2 growth and industrial production growth of 0.70. Japanese real M2 growth began moving up in 2001. Might not this faster real M2 growth have some positive impact on Japanese economic activity starting in the second half of this year?

Chart 3


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~ Quelle



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gesamter Thread:

• Are Things Going To Be Looking Up For The Japanese Economy In The 2nd Half? - Cosa, 14.03.2002, 13:00
  • To Be Looking Up In The 2nd Half? / Leider nein - Diogenes, 14.03.2002, 13:56
    • Re: To Be Looking Up In The 2nd Half? / Leider nein - Cosa, 14.03.2002, 15:13
      • Re: To Be Looking Up In The 2nd Half? / Leider nein - Diogenes, 14.03.2002, 17:10
        • Re: To Be Looking Up In The 2nd Half? / Leider nein / Volle Zustimmung! oT - JüKü, 14.03.2002, 18:31