Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Hier ist der aktuelle Tankan-Bericht mit Kommentar, zeigt Konsolidierung... - El Sheik, 01.04.2002, 10:17
Hier ist der aktuelle Tankan-Bericht mit Kommentar, zeigt Konsolidierung...
Business Confidence Stops Worsening At Big Manufacturers: BOJ Tankan
TOKYO (Nikkei)--For the first time in five quarters, business sentiment among large manufacturers did not worsen, according to results of the March tankan survey released Monday by the Bank of Japan.
Related Story:
ANALYSIS: Tankan Highlights Ongoing Pessimism Among Small Firms
The diffusion index for big manufacturers stood at minus 38 for the month, the same as December, reflecting progress in inventory adjustments and a recovery in exports.
TANKAN Summary
The index for smaller companies, however, continued to slide marginally, indicating that the overall economy remains weak.
The survey was conducted between Feb. 22 and March 29, when the Nikkei Stock Average hovered just above 10,000.
The diffusion index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of companies with a negative business outlook from the percentage of those that have a positive outlook.
The index for inventory levels of finished goods and merchandise improved to 33 from 37, the first upturn in six quarters.
By industry, the business sentiment index for the electric machinery sector rose for the first time in six quarters, supported by a rebound in demand for IT products.
The index for large nonmanufacturers came to minus 22, unchanged from three months before and the first time in three quarters that the figure did not worsen.
By sector, confidence among transport and leasing businesses weakened, while the outlook in the telecommunications and wholesale sectors was more positive than three months ago.
Large manufacturers expect the June index to improve by 11 points, the sharpest estimated rise since June 1999. Large nonmanufacturers forecast a 1-point improvement for June.
In contrast, smaller firms remained pessimistic, with the index for manufacturers falling 2 points to minus 51 and that for nonmanufacturers dropping 3 points to minus 42, the fifth-straight decline for both sectors. The negative outlook was attributed to slow sales growth in the wake of restructuring at big companies.
Smaller manufacturers predict the index will remain flat in the next three months, while nonmanufacturers foresee a lower index.
All enterprises remained cautious about capital investment, with large and smaller manufacturers and nonmanufacturers planning to reduce spending in plants and equipment in fiscal 2002 from the previous year.
Large and small companies across the board saw their financial positions tighten and found banks' lending attitude to be more severe in the last quarter of fiscal 2001 than the previous term.
(The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Monday evening edition)
und hier die Daten
<pre>
TANKAN Outline (March 2002)
April 1, 2002
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of sample enterprises
Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 3,740 4,911 8,651 ( 96.8%)
of which Large enterprises 757 642 1,399 ( 97.9%)
Medium-sized enterprises 1,073 1,671 2,744 ( 96.8%)
Small enterprises 1,910 2,598 4,508 ( 96.4%)
Principal Enterprises 378 303 681 ( 99.6%)
[Responding Period: February 22nd to March 29th.]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing
enterprises(yen/US$)
Dec 2001 survey Mar 2002 survey
FY 2001 119.47 121.71
1H 120.34 120.31
2H 118.59 123.12
FY 2002 - 124.21
1H - 124.34
2H - 124.08
[Business Conditions]
(Net percentage of respondents who reported"Favorable")
Dec 2001 Mar 2002 Change June 2002 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec and Mar and
Mar June
[Large enterprises]
(-36)
Manufacturing -38 -38 0 -27 +11
(-25)
Nonmanufacturing -22 -22 0 -21 + 1
[Medium-sized enterprises]
(-47)
Manufacturing -48 -47 + 1 -38 + 9
(-35)
Nonmanufacturing -29 -32 - 3 -31 + 1
[Small enterprises]
(-55)
Manufacturing -49 -51 - 2 -51 0
(-46)
Nonmanufacturing -39 -42 - 3 -46 - 4
[All Enterprises]
(-43)
All industries -40 -41 - 1 -40 + 1
[Principal Enterprises]
(-36)
Manufacturing -37 -39 - 2 -27 +12
(-21)
Nonmanufacturing -20 -21 - 1 -16 + 5
(Notes) 1.FY = fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H = first half (April - September)
2H = second half (October - March of the following year)
2.Figures in parentheses are the forecasts of the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices]
(Manufacturing, % points)
Dec 2001 Mar 2002 Change June 2002 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec and Mar and
Mar June
Supply and demand conditions for products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus"Excess supply")
Large enterprises -48 -45 + 3 -39 + 6
Small enterprises -58 -57 + 1 -57 0
Overseas supply and demand conditions for products (Diffusion index of"Excess
demand" minus"Excess supply")
Large enterprises -37 -32 + 5 -26 + 6
Small enterprises -45 -44 + 1 -42 + 2
Inventory level of finished goods and merchandise(Diffusion index of"Excessive
or somewhat excessive" minus"Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large enterprises 37 33 - 4 20 -13
Small enterprises 33 31 - 2 22 - 9
Wholesalers' inventory level (Diffusion index of"Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus"Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large enterprises 44 39 - 5 29 -10
Small enterprises 49 45 - 4 40 - 5
Change in output prices (Diffusion index of"Rise" minus"Fall")
Large enterprises -37 -38 - 1 -36 + 2
Small enterprises -43 -43 0 -43 0
Change in input prices (Diffusion index of"Rise" minus"Fall")
Large enterprises -16 -11 + 5 -11 0
Small enterprises - 9 - 5 + 4 - 3 + 2
[Sales] (Year-to-year growth rate, %)
FY2001 Adjustment FY2002 Adjustment
(Forecast) ratio (Forecast) ratio
[Large enterprises]
Manufacturing - 6.3 - 1.5 0.6 -
Nonmanufacturing - 1.5 + 1.2 - 0.3 -
[Medium-sized enterprises]
Manufacturing - 6.7 - 1.5 0.8 -
Nonmanufacturing - 3.6 - 1.7 0.4 -
[Small enterprises]
Manufacturing - 6.0 - 1.2 - 0.8 -
Nonmanufacturing - 3.6 - 1.9 0.2 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries - 3.8 - 0.8 0.2 -
[Principal Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 5.2 - 1.3 0.5 -
Nonmanufacturing - 4.3 - 0.3 - 1.3 -
[Current Profits] (Year-to-year growth rate, %)
FY2001 Adjustment FY2002 Adjustment
(Forecast) ratio (Forecast) ratio
[Large enterprises]
Manufacturing -45.1 -16.3 36.8 -
Nonmanufacturing - 9.7 - 2.1 12.1 -
[Medium-sized enterprises]
Manufacturing -45.0 - 8.8 31.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -11.1 -10.0 18.3 -
[Small enterprises]
Manufacturing -48.5 -10.5 58.4 -
Nonmanufacturing -12.7 - 8.9 17.4 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries -25.9 - 8.8 22.6 -
[Principal Enterprises]
Manufacturing -43.8 -15.0 42.6 -
Nonmanufacturing -14.6 - 2.3 23.0 -
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, % points)
FY2001 Adjustment FY2002 Adjustment
(Forecast) ratio (Forecast) ratio
[Large enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.70 - 0.48 3.68 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.44 - 0.08 2.74 -
[Medium-sized enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.77 - 0.22 3.60 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.72 - 0.16 2.02 -
[Small enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.64 - 0.18 2.63 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.11 - 0.16 2.47 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 2.21 - 0.19 2.71 -
[Principal Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.64 - 0.57 3.74 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.72 - 0.07 2.14 -
[Fixed investment] (Year-to-year growth rate, %)
FY2001 Adjustment FY2002 Adjustment
(Forecast) ratio (Forecast) ratio
[Large enterprises]
Manufacturing - 6.7 - 2.4 - 8.4 -
Nonmanufacturing - 5.7 + 2.4 - 8.4 -
All industries - 6.1 + 0.5 - 8.4 -
[Medium-sized enterprises]
Manufacturing -13.2 - 1.8 -14.3 -
Nonmanufacturing - 2.7 - 0.6 - 1.2 -
All industries - 4.1 - 0.8 - 2.7 -
[Small enterprises]
Manufacturing -15.3 + 1.2 -24.8 -
Nonmanufacturing - 4.5 + 1.1 -13.4 -
All industries - 7.4 + 1.1 -16.2 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing - 9.3 - 1.7 -12.0 -
Nonmanufacturing - 4.2 + 0.8 - 6.0 -
All industries - 5.6 + 0.1 - 7.6 -
(Note) Adjustment ratios are calculated as the percentage change of the figures
between present and previous surveys.
[Production Capacity of Manufacturing Enterprises]
(Diffusion index of"Excessive" minus"Insufficient", % points)
Dec 2001 Mar 2002 Change June 2002 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec and Mar and
Mar June
Large enterprises 31 33 + 2 27 - 6
Medium-sized enterprises 33 33 0 29 - 4
Small enterprises 29 29 0 27 - 2
All Enterprises 30 31 + 1 28 - 3
[Overseas Activities: Special survey for June and December]
(Manufacturing, year-to-year growth rate, %)
FY2001 Adjustment FY2002 Adjustment
(Forecast) ratio (Forecast) ratio
[Large enterprises]
Overseas production - - - -
Percentage share of - - - -
overseas production
Overseas investment - - - -
Percentage share of - - - -
overseas investment
[Principal Enterprises]
Overseas production - - - -
Percentage share of - - - -
overseas production
Overseas investment - - - -
Percentage share of - - - -
overseas investment
(Notes)
1.In principle, overseas production and investment of affiliates are
aggregated.
2.Partly includes yen conversion estimates in the case of foreign currency
denominated transaction.
3.Percentages share of overseas production = Value of overseas production
/ (Value of sales + Value of overseas production) * 100
Percentages share of overseas investment = Value of overseas investment
/ (Value of domestic investment + Value of overseas investment) * 100
4.The figures include respondents with no overseas affiliates.
[Employment Conditions]
(All industries, Diffusion index of"Excessive" minus"Insufficient", % points)
Dec 2001 Mar 2002 Change June 2002 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec and Mar and
Mar June
Large enterprises 28 27 - 1 22 - 5
Medium-sized enterprises 18 17 - 1 14 - 3
Small enterprises 20 20 0 20 0
All Enterprises 21 20 - 1 18 - 2
Principal Enterprises 27 27 0 23 - 4
[Number of New Graduates Hired: Special survey for December]
(All industries, year-to-year percentage growth rate of scheduled figures
against the actual figures of the previous year)
FY2001 FY2002
Large enterprises - -
Medium-sized enterprises - -
Small enterprises - -
All Enterprises - -
Principal Enterprises - -
[Corporate Finance] (All industries, % points)
[Financial position] (Diffusion index of"Easy" minus"Tight")
Dec 2001 Mar 2002 Change June 2002 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec and Mar and
Mar June
Large enterprises 8 6 - 2 1 - 5
Medium-sized enterprises - 8 -10 - 2 -15 - 5
Small enterprises -17 -19 - 2 -28 - 9
All Enterprises -10 -11 - 1 -19 - 8
Principal Enterprises 7 1 - 6 0 - 1
[Lending Attitude of Financial Institutions]
(Diffusion index of"Accommodative" minus"Severe")
Dec 2001 Mar 2002 Change June 2002 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec and Mar and
Mar June
Large enterprises 14 5 - 9 2 - 3
Medium-sized enterprises 0 - 4 - 4 - 9 - 5
Small enterprises - 6 - 9 - 3 -17 - 8
All Enterprises 0 - 5 - 5 -11 - 6
Principal Enterprises 5 - 4 - 9 - 5 - 1
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans]
(Diffusion index of"Rise" minus"Fall")
Dec 2001 Mar 2002 Change June 2002 Change
between (Forecast) between
Dec and Mar and
Mar June
Large enterprises - 2 13 +15 18 + 5
Medium-sized enterprises - 2 9 +11 17 + 8
Small enterprises - 2 8 +10 16 + 8
All Enterprises - 2 10 +12 16 + 6
Principal Enterprises 2 17 +15 20 + 3
</pre> Besten Gruß
El Sheik
<ul> ~ Source</ul>
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