Eine Meinung zu Gold - Jake Bernstein

verfasst von Cosa, 08.04.2002, 18:19

Hi!

J. Bernstein erstellt saisonale Charts zu allen möglichen Commodities, Indices etc.

Hier einige seiner Ãœberlegungen


Why is Gold Hesitating?

As readers know, I have been long term bullish on gold (and other precious metals) for many months. My recommendations to buy gold mining shares date back to the lows in these stocks. And my advice on platinum and palladium has been similarly bullish. While I think that the best is yet to come in these markets, there is some cause for concern about the SHORT TERM prospects, particularly for gold. As I pointed out to you last week, there is good reason to believe that gold prices could decline over the next few weeks as the market follows a well established seasonal price pattern to the downside. There are other short term concerns that may be warning us of a possible correction down in gold prices. These concerns are as follows:<ul><ul>
• As this report is being written (8:15AM Chicago Time) stock prices have declined sharply in the US and Europe. In spite of the fact that the decline has been fairly steep, gold prices are only reacting minimally to the upside. This is bearish, particularly in consideration of the fact that the decline has been rather large in major stock indices.
• Middle East violence continues to be a destabilizing force that should, under truly bullish conditions, drive concerned investors to buy precious metals as a temporarily safe haven. This has not happened. Even after a weekend of more violence and the threat of an Israeli 2nd front in the struggle, gold has not responded to the upside.
• The surge in crude oil prices has not resulted in a surge for gold prices. I consider this also to be a short term bearish consideration for gold prices. And finally,
• The current time frame has been one during which equities tend to rally. Should the sharp decline now in process reverse itself to the upside, gold prices could take a short term tumble. Be careful if you're long for the short term or intermediate term.</ul></ul>

What Would Change my Mind?

I would alter my short term bearish opinion if gold prices can CLOSE ABOVE their February and April highs to date. On the other hand, the inability of gold prices to rally even given the considerable fundamental reasons for it to do so would be a significant bearish factor, particularly if New York June Gold futures were to CLOSE BELOW short term support in the 296 area. Next support is likely at about $280 if the market closes below 296.

Conclusion

I reiterate my cautionary advice. Gold will be a much better buy if it either breaks out ABOVE the resistance levels stated above or if it declines to a valid level of technical support. During this time of the year the seasonal odds for gold are bearish.


Zuvor schrieb er u.a.

Although gold prices have surged higher, there may be some danger of a top in early April.

Although gold prices have surged higher, as predicted in this commentary over the last few days, there may be some danger of a top in early April. Based on my analysis of seasonal patterns in gold prices over the last 27 years, there has been a distinct tendency for gold futures to DECLINE from approximately 8 April through approximately 10 May. The accompanying table below shows the historical pattern since 1975. This pattern assumes a short sale on the close of trading (US) 8 April with an exit 10 May, using a stop loss 8% above the entry price on a daily closing basis.


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In other words, the table shows that about 77% of the time the CLOSING price of gold futures has been LOWER on 10 May (or the next business day if the market was closed on that day) than it was on 8 April (or the next business day if the market was closed on that day). While this pattern does NOT GUARANTEE that gold will decline, it is certainly food for caution, given its consistency through the years. The pattern is especially interesting given the current strength in gold (and silver). Is it possible that the current rally to recent highs in gold will"set up" the market for a corrective decline?

The table further shows that the average decline in gold prices during these dates has been about $10 US, or 2.95%.
While I am not suggesting that short sales are in order as yet, the historical pattern does suggest that the current rally could peak in early April, to be followed by a decline.

It should be noted that there were indeed some significant losing years; specifically, 1997 and 1983. Yet, in both of these cases, the subsequent year was a winning year (i.e. prices declined). The use of timing with this pattern can be an effective filter in avoiding the pattern during years when it is unlikely to be correct. In other words, if gold prices are still in an up trend when the ideal entry date begins, one would avoid selling or one would WAIT until timing turned bearish. I will update you on this pattern and timing as they develop.


Pre-Holiday Seasonal Develops on Schedule

I have been advising you that prior to the Easter Holiday the odds favored a rally. The rally appears to be on schedule. Key resistance in the DAX nearby futures is about 5467, a close above which would be considered very bullish. CAC-40 has a very strong chart pattern with resistance now being penetrated, while the FTSE shows resistance in the 5300 area in nearby futures. I continue to expect a further seasonal rally in equities from 3 April through 16 April, approximately.


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gesamter Thread:

• Eine Meinung zu Gold - Jake Bernstein - Cosa, 08.04.2002, 18:19
  • Nicht viel wert,... - pecunia, 08.04.2002, 19:12
    • Re: Da scheint mir der Wunsch der Vater des Gedanken zu sein - JLL, 08.04.2002, 20:38
      • Re: Ergänzung bzw. Berichtigung - JLL, 08.04.2002, 21:22
  • Re: Bernsteins April-Saisonaliät beim Gold existiert nicht - Cosa - Dimi, 08.04.2002, 20:41
  • Re:"Beeing careful in the short term" is nie verkehrt (nT) - tas, 08.04.2002, 21:22