Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Von Erbsenzählern und nochmals Wirtschaftsdaten..... - Cosa, 26.04.2002, 10:25
Von Erbsenzählern und nochmals Wirtschaftsdaten.....
Moin,
zur meinern Morgenlektüre gehört u.a. Northerntrust, da äusserte sich Paul Kasriel zu den hier mehrfach angesprochenen Daten der langlebigen Wirtschaftsgüter.
<font size="4">Government Statistics Don't Improve This"Grumpy" Economist's Disposition</font>
April 24, 2002
Goldman Sachs is spreading the word that the federal budget deficit is going to be higher than the latest OMB/CBO projections. I say it's time for the government to take action to hold down the budget deficit. How? Eliminate the resources devoted to the collection and distribution of government statistics. This rage over government statistics has been building over many years. But the"tipping" point came this morning with the Census Bureau's advance release of March durable goods orders. The Bureau's bean counters informed us that it no longer would be including orders and shipments data on semiconductors because some of the big producers were no longer reporting numbers to the federal bean counters. Fair enough - if you aren't getting the data, better not to report it than to make it up. But how long has there been a dearth of data? How much faith should we have put in prior months'/quarters' data. With or without semiconductors' reports, probably not much faith. After all, one week after the release of the advance durable goods orders report, we get a revised number in the factory orders report - one week. And then, of course, when the next month's durable goods order is released, there are further revisions. But it's not just this report - it's all of them. Yesterday, the BEA told us that the personal income data it had provided us last year was"inoperable." These data, too, had already been"scrubbed" several times, but evidently, not scrubbed enough. And to think, the Soviets used to be called revisionists!
How could traders trade intelligently (guffaw, guffaw) without a constant diet of government statistics? How about trading off more reliable and never-revised private sector data. If you want to know what is going on in manufacturing, look no further than the ISM (formerly know as PRINCE, I mean, NAPM) monthly report on manufacturing. Except for the seasonal factors, these data never get revised. The chart below shows that the never-revised ISM production index tracks very well against the revised"official" Fed reported industrial production data.
<center>[img][/img] </center>
Want to know what's going on with consumers? When Americans feel good about their economic prospects, their thoughts turn to cars and trucks. So, a good gauge of consumer sentiment and spending is those never-revised car and truck sales reported by the folks who produce cars and trucks. What about the labor market? The monthly employment report? Fughet about it. There are so many estimated factors in it that it often bears no resemblance to reality. And talk about revisions! No, when I want to know about what's going on in the labor market, I look to the real unemployed people standing in the real lines at the state unemployment offices - especially the ones who have been collecting unemployment benefits for more than one week. No samples or"bias" factors here.
The Commerce Department is going to report on Friday the"real" value of goods and services produced in the economy in the first quarter. It is going to this with a straight face even though it does not have March data for inventories, trade, and construction. Moreover, the data that it does have is likely to be revised. Despite the fact that these data are largely fiction, people in the financial markets will place bets on them as though they were the truth.
Weiter werden in dem Artikel noch die Daten des Mittwochs berichtet - Quelle .
Eigentlich könnte sich das Handelsministerium die Veröffentlichung des BIPs heute sparen.
schöne Grüsse
Cosa
<center>
<HR>
</center>
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
