Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- SPX - Jacques, 27.04.2002, 21:55
SPX
aus fremder aber nahestehender Feder:
We are basically inline with our last month’s update wherein we announced a test back to 1’100 and with follow-through towards 1’070.
Let’s recapitulate the negative aspects that brought us to the conclusion that a downside bias will continue to prevail: the double Fibonacci retracement (see “chart 1, panel 1”) near 1’175 roughly coincided with major return zone built by different chart lines, illustrated in monthly “chart 2, panel 1”. Further more the C-D leg was of almost exactly the same extent as the A-B leg (similarity in countertrend reactions). Finally, long-term moving averages were still pointing down. All in all we were facing a rather negative constellation and we actually still do.
Like in the EuroStoxx chart the bundle of moving averages seems to push the price southwards. We have to admit that bullish aspects are still very scarce. The only really positive aspect is the extremely oversold monthly oscillator in “chart 2, panel 2”; it was at the origin of our assumption that the downtrend from the 1’550 top in the year 2000 will probably not resume during the first half of this year (and this idea is still valid).
So, what is our expectation for the month of May? For the time being we have no convincing constellation supporting the idea of a strong rally. The most realistic, bullish case that we can see for now is sort of triangular consolidation below roughly 1’150 and above 1’070. However, the probability seems higher that further losses will be registered. A break of 1’070 could even open the way for 1’040. In that zone a more important rally might then follow.
The message of today’s update: We propose to respect the prevailing downside pressure as long as we have no more-convincing signs for stabilization at hand.
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