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Mix-Ansicht- Goldbugs sind superbearish - Dimi, 03.05.2002, 16:31
- sehr hilfreich, danke! (owT) - Amanito, 03.05.2002, 16:39
Goldbugs sind superbearish
Gold newsletters jump off bandwagon
By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:20 AM ET May 3, 2002
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert
Financial Digest are not all that excited about gold right now. Their
average exposure to the gold market is just 37.5 percent, with the
remaining 62.5 percent allocated to cash.
If you're a contrarian, their tepid feelings about bullion are good news, both for
gold itself and the shares of gold mining companies.
I frankly am surprised that today's gold timers are not more enthusiastic. With
the yellow metal exhibiting more signs of life than it has in years, I would have
expected nearly ubiquitous exuberance among the gold-timing newsletters. After
all, that is exactly how they reacted every other time in recent years in which
bullion rallied to the $300 per ounce level.
But not this time. After briefly jumping to 90 percent in early February when
bullion rose to the $300 level, the HFD's gold sentiment index has steadily
declined to less than half that level today. Yet bullion actually is higher today
than it was three months ago.
This is a textbook case of what is often seen at the beginning of sustainable
rallies. As contrarians constantly remind us, bull markets don't like company;
they thrive when relatively few advisers and investors have jumped on their
bandwagon. This is why contrarians were not particularly surprised that gold's
rally stalled in mid-February, the point at which virtually all the timers followed by
the HFD had become bullish. Today, in contrast, gold at $310 per ounce has
fewer cheerleaders than it did three months ago when gold was trading at a
lower price.
Incidentally, this sentiment picture for gold is just the opposite of what prevails
for equities. In that arena the average adviser has been stubbornly optimistic in
the face of a significant decline, which is why I grade sentiment among stock
timing newsletters as bearish.
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial
newsletters since 1982.
<ul> ~ http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDE1478EB%2DA044%2D4511%2D877E%</ul>
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