Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Nachlese - US-Daten vom Freitag - Economic deterioration continues - Cosa, 06.05.2002, 10:42
Nachlese - US-Daten vom Freitag - Economic deterioration continues
Moin,
mal schauen, ob das Posten wieder geht oder diese Routing Probleme anhalten. Auf jeden Fall ist hier nochmal eine Betrachtung der Freitagsdaten; der Arbeitsmarktbericht war wahrlich nicht gut.
<font size ="4">Economic deterioration continues.</font>
By Charlie Minter from Comstock Partners, Inc 05-06-2002
Every day, it seems, we get more evidence that the so-called economic recovery is faltering. April employment was up 43,000, but the March number, originally reported as up 58,000, was revised downward to minus 21,000, a swing of 79,000. Similarly, the February figure, initially reported as plus 66,000, now stands at minus 4,000. With substantial downward revisions such as these, the current release showing a turn toward growth must be taken with a grain of salt. Furthermore next month’s revisions are likely to be greater than usual since the BLS will be making its annual benchmark revisions based on updated seasonal adjustment factors. The unemployment rate, too, was no cause for cheer as it rose to 6.0%, the highest level since 1994. Added to yesterday’s unfavorable figures for initial claims, continuing claims and the Challenger layoff report, it is evident that the labor picture is unusually weak if we are actually in a recovery period. This tends to confirm our view that the extremely poor corporate earnings outlook, poor pricing environment and excess manufacturing capacity is leading companies to slash all kinds of costs including labor and capital expenditures.
In addition to the employment report the ISM non-manufacturing index for April dipped to 55.3 from 57.3 in March, matching a similar drop in the manufacturing index reported earlier. Some sensitive commodity prices are also reflecting recent economic eakness. These include the JoC-ECRI commodity index, the Baltic Freight rate index, DRAM prices and copper. The negative tone of the indicators released over the last few days follow about six weeks of constant softening in a majority of the most closely watched economic signposts. In our view this strongly indicates that the current inventory swing is not likely to carry over into final demand, and that the economy will continue to soften.
The weakening economy is combining with the expanding accounting mess, the Mid-East turmoil, the global terrorist problem and a deteriorating earnings picture to grind down an extremely overvalued market. Friday the SOX broke decisively below the key 500 mark, and other major market averages are likely to follow in short order.
einen schönen Tag wünscht
Cosa
<center>
<HR>
</center>
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
