Re: Ist ein schwacher EURO wirklich positiv?

verfasst von Schlangenfuchs, 25.04.2000, 21:11

Dies habe ich heute morgen gelesen und darum bin ich überhaupt nicht erstaunt, dass gerade heute der € und CHF nach unten durchfallen. Der Herr Walter wird wohl was davon gewusst haben.

Foremost among these worries are fear that the Dollar might be heading for a swoon; we have heard this before, though this time the most-heard reasoning holds that because the Euro is so heavily hit, Nations on the Continent will have to hike rates, hence compelling a further hike here in the U.S., in order to attract or retain monies in Dollar-denominated assets. We agree to a point only: a) a further domestic hike is probably in the mix already; b) a primary reason for strength in the Dollar keys-off the problems overseas, and the perception of relative safety here; thus c) few are considering (as touched on last week here) that if the Euro did cause a break overseas (or a heightened rate environment there), that it might simply buttress interest in parking funds here for a perceived safer investment arena. In other words it be Europe pressed, not the U.S.A., with allowance for a sympathetic reaction here followed by probably a big rally, not decline.
Further, it is not unknown overseas that the United States is the engine pulling their economies back; so if certain countries were to take actions that undermined the current U.S. structure, they might be hurt even more in the longer run too. Nevertheless, we have warned of such concerns, have suggested that the Federal Reserve in fact needed to exchange notes with other influential players and those in positions of influence, and some say they are now doing just that. We have argued for some time that derivatives and currencies were the greatest risk, not mere inflation as a matter of fact, so we're pleased that there's some increasing awareness of where a crisis could come from. That awareness may shake investors faith a bit, but it's actually healthy as regulators at least won't (again) be caught flat-footed, by virtue of the lively discussions rapidly increasing.
Besides hearing more about currencies, and the trade balance, or the coming Employment Cost Index, what we don't hear about is the great loan-leverage provided to the hedgers or other type of"pool" player, which is likely something the Fed does not wanted generally discussed, for fear it would undermine some of the basic tenets of investor perceptions about the modern era safety net approaches, relating to the limitations on leverage. That's precisely why the Fed Chairman is not that interested in hiking retail margin requirements, because he's so aware of what he can't easily impact, and because to do so requires cross-agency cooperation if not new legislation. On top of that there is the risk that if you pull-the-plug on leverage, you diminish one of the factors in fact contributing to the money focused on the U.S. markets all these many months and years. In such an environment some might fear what they corrected, unless they did so at a low, not high.

Ob das dann positiv oder negativ ist weiss ich nicht, aber es ist eine Kontribution, die die Europäer an die Amerikaner bezahlen müssen, damit wir weiter in Ruhe exportieren und unsere Probleme dabei verwalten können, denn es sieht so aus, dass wir kein eigenes Wachstum (Kreditwachstum?) hinbringen.
Dies ist hart ausgedrückt, aber so sieht es aus! Wir stehen unter Druck und da gibt es kein Entrinnen, das Aussenhandelsdeffizit hat finanziert zu werden, sonst brechen die Dämme, was uns am meisten treffen würde. So stehen die Dinge

mit nichtsdestotrotz den besten Grüssen

Schlangenfuchs


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gesamter Thread:

• Ist ein schwacher EURO wirklich positiv? - Black Elk, 25.04.2000, 20:53
  • Re: Ist ein schwacher EURO wirklich positiv? - Schlangenfuchs, 25.04.2000, 21:11
    • Re: Ist ein schwacher EURO wirklich positiv? - NickLeeson, 26.04.2000, 00:39
      • NEIN! - JüKü, 26.04.2000, 00:54
        • Re: NEIN! - Black Elk, 26.04.2000, 10:33
        • Nervensäge - Bart, 26.04.2000, 12:16
      • Re: Ist ein schwacher EURO wirklich positiv? - Bart, 26.04.2000, 09:18
    • Re: Devisen - Schlangenfuchs, 26.04.2000, 07:25
      • Sollte eigentlich eins runter als Antwort für Nick Leeson oT - Schlangenfuchs, 26.04.2000, 07:40
      • Interessantzer Link, der ganz unten - JüKü, 26.04.2000, 12:55
  • Schwache Währung = schwache Regierung - JüKü, 25.04.2000, 23:37
    • Re: Schwache Währung = schwache Regierung - Frank, 26.04.2000, 08:20
      • Flexibilität - Bart, 26.04.2000, 08:48
  • Ja - Bart, 26.04.2000, 08:57
    • Inflation - Bart, 26.04.2000, 09:07