Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - Wenn Gold steigt, bleibt Gold doch populärer als"Westernisation"!!!!! (owT)

Wenn Gold steigt, bleibt Gold doch populärer als"Westernisation"!!!!! (owT)

verfasst von yatri, 23.05.2002, 19:19

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> <td width="100%">>Westernisation of India a worry for gold</td>
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> [img][/img] By: Ken Gooding</td>
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> <td width="100%" valign="top">Posted:
> 2002/05/05 Sun 19:34 | © Miningweb 1997-2002</td>
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> <td width="100%"> style="text-align: justify; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt"> color="#333333">LONDON - The fact that the popularity of India's famous bansuri-playing snake charmers is falling so drastically and many are changing jobs, may offer some uncomfortable lessons for the future of gold demand in that country, according to Kamal Naqvi, London based precious metals analyst at Macquarie Bank.
>He is not the only eminent analyst in London pointing to changes in cultural habits in India, the biggest consumer of physical gold, and what this might mean for the future in a country that accounts for well over 40 percent of demand for the precious metal. Andy Smith at Mitsui Global Precious Metals is also drawing attention to the rapid increase in the use of credit cards and mobile phones there.
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>"Western habits of spending and saving are being transferred to the east," Smith points out."As India gets richer, people are turning to alternative methods of investing and saving. GDP [gross domestic product] in India has been growing but gold demand has gone ex-growth since 1988." He intends to touch on this important topic during his presentation at the San Francisco conference next month organised by the London Bullion Market Association and the Gold and Silver Institutes.
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>Smith suggests:"For gold this is crucial. Because of various factors - an inadequate banking system, the need for fathers to provide dowries for daughters, the caste system and so on - gold is the preferred method of saving in India and this has been the bedrock for global gold demand growth in the 1990s."
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>It will take a long, long time for this culture to change, Smith suggests, but there are some pointers that should worry gold producers. For example, in the seven months to November 2001 the numbers of Indian farmers holding credit cards leapt by 50 percent"albeit only to 20m;" while"the cell phone virus is spreading faster that most other communicable diseases. It took until September 2001 before there were 1m subscribers in the main cities of India but only another 14 months to top 2m."
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>Macquarie's Naqvi says in a special note to clients that the slumping popularity of snake charmers in India has been explained by one exponent of the art in the following way:"The problem is that the people have watched too much TV. Kids and their parents are always watching it or playing with computers. They don't bother looking at us any more."
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>Naqvi points out that India has always had a strong"cultural affinity" to snake charmers which can be traced back to the fact that the cobra is worshipped as a god in Hinduism."Unfortunately, it seems that traditional cultural affinity, and even a strong religious link, is not enough to protect the snake charmers from the impact of economic and social development and Western influence."
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>He, too, suggests that the cultural and other changes in India will have an impact on global gold demand."There must be recognition that this negative influence from both Western culture and economic development simply is the inevitable medium and long-term influence - thankfully it will not happen tomorrow, but it will happen."
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>Like Smith, Naqvi suggests the fact that India is getting richer is not necessarily positive for gold. He points out that gold demand in the US, the second largest consumer, seems quite robust but, if you relate consumption to per capita income, Indians buy 38 times more gold than the Americans."If this indicates the impact of economic development, over the next five to ten years a falling percentage of income spent on gold in India could well offset (at the very least) the gains from rising income levels."
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>Is there anything the gold industry could do to ensure the popularity of gold in India does not follow the sorry path that the bearded, loin cloth wearing snake charmers appear to be on?
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>Naqvi suggests a two-pronged attack. In India the industry should promote gold to counter the generally anti-gold influence of Western fashion, while internationally it should reinvigorate interest in gold"at the source of the current major influence of fashion - the West, particularly the US."
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>He says that when in India recently he was impressed by a promotion for a new line of gold jewellery by the World Gold Council and a number of local retailers. The jewellery being promoted under the banner"Collection g" uses a fusion of Indian and Western fashion, branded 22 carat gold and is sold at a fixed price."These latter two points are a clear divergence from the traditional heavy Indian gold jewellery where the price is determined literally by the value of the gold plus a small making charge," Naqvi points out.
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>"It has to be said that the last thing the gold industry would want is that this concept be adopted India-wide as it would lead to a very large contraction in demand. In truth, the programme is quite clearly aimed at young, urban, higher-income women and simply recognised the fact that this market segment is moving away from gold entirely and the promotion seeks to offset this trend.
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>"However, it is also tacit proof of the inevitable change in Indian jewellery trends over the longer term."</td>
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gesamter Thread:

Westernisation of India a worry for gold - Ecki1, 23.05.2002, 13:33
- Re: Gold at the Crossroads - Ecki1, 23.05.2002, 13:51
- Kulturelle Entwicklung ist die eine Seite... - silvereagle, 23.05.2002, 13:52
  - Re: Kulturelle Entwicklung ist die eine Seite... - Ecki1, 23.05.2002, 14:15
- Wenn Gold steigt, bleibt Gold doch populärer als"Westernisation"!!!!! (owT) - yatri, 23.05.2002, 19:19