The Death of Disinflation / Artikel, engl.

verfasst von JüKü, 23.05.2002, 21:30

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<font face="Verdana" size="1" color="#002864">http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=962</font>
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<font face="Arial" size="2"><font face="Verdana" color="#002864" size="5"><strong>The Death of Disinflation</strong></font>
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<font size="2"><font size="4">by Sean Corrigan</font>&nbsp;</font>




<font size="2">[Posted May 23, 2002]</font>




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<font size="2">Lest we think this is solely an American problem, consider
the figures contained in the UK employment report earlier this week. In the
past two years, 290,000 jobs have been lost in manufacturing, which for us, in
our small sceptred isle set in its silver sea, is a significant total--around
one in every 14 positions in fact.</font>




<font size="2">Despite this frantic shedding of any firm’s biggest
variable cost, output per job has fallen 2.4 percent annualized in the past
four months, so productivity is still plunging.</font>




<font size="2">But how come? Are we Brits too stupid to read Microsoft
manuals? Can we not implement a"change-management, real-time, e-business
solution" along with the rest of IBM’s clients? Have we not heard of
just-in-time inventory management and all the other buzz phrases of the New
Era?</font>




<font size="2">Maybe not.&nbsp;</font>




<font size="2">But far more likely is the fact that the raging housing
boom, yawning trade deficit, expanding government, and credit-fueled
consumption binge is pricing resources out of the hands of producers. This
brings about a vicious cycle of cutbacks on the part of the main customers of
these"higher-order" businesses--namely, other businesses
themselves!</font>




<font size="2">The Bank of England may hew to the Greenspan line and bemoan
the fact that rates are too high. However, the fact is that rates in the UK
are too low,&nbsp;since they are demonstrably well below that natural
rate of interest that allows a broad healthy balance to be struck between
production and consumption and saving and investment. The same is true--in
spades--of the US.</font>




<font size="2">Just as the UK has been woefully hollowed out by this
process--and will assuredly pay a heavy penance once the boom fizzles--it is
clear from the NFIB comments that a recognition of the same symptoms, if not a
realization of the cause of the disease, has been arrived at in the U.S.
itself.</font>




<font size="2">Unfortunately, the patient has become so weakened by this
misdiagnosis that, while he probably would have survived the surgery 17 months
and 11 rate cuts ago, now his only course may be to use the current respite to
put his affairs in order.</font>


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<font size="2">Sean Corrigan is a principal of&nbsp;www.capital-insight.com,
a London-based economic consultancy. See his Mises.org&nbsp;<font color="#000080" size="2">Articles
Archive</font>,&nbsp;or send him&nbsp;<font color="blue" size="2">MAIL</font>.</font>


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• The Death of Disinflation / Artikel, engl. - JüKü, 23.05.2002, 21:30