Südafrika - Q1 GDP Meets Expectations, But Underlying Trends Surprise

verfasst von Cosa, 29.05.2002, 11:13

Hi!

Die südafrikanische Wirtschaft und den Rand haben hier ja einige im Visier.....

<font size="4">South Africa: Q1 GDP Meets Expectations, But Underlying Trends Surprise</font>

May 28, 2002

The numbers released today for Q1 GDP were not very strong - the annualized 2.2% increase was actually lower than the 2.5% rate of Q4 2001. But in contrast to the figures for the final three months of last year, this set was far more balanced, and showed growth in key sectors that had been contracting throughout H2 2001. And the year-on-year growth rate of 2.1% for Q1 was indeed an improvement on the 1.8% posted in Q4. All things considered, we view this report as generally positive, but there are still some lingering concerns that should be noted.

In comparing today's figures on an annualized basis with those of the last quarter of 2001, the improvement seems marginal. Of the 11 main sectors of the economy, six improved while five declined (the same breakdown as seen in the difference between Q3 and Q4), but ten showed growth during the first quarter, compared with seven in Q4. Furthermore, the key agriculture and mining sectors (the primary employers per unit of GDP) posted positive results after a dismal second half of 2001. This bodes well for near-term growth prospects, both in terms of the economy and the employment market., assuming that these trends are sustained. The only disappointment was the manufacturing sector, which expanded at an annual rate of 2.8%, half of the figure in Q4. With the rand at a very competitive level during Q1, expansion opportunities seemed endless, but one must assume that export strength was countered by weakness in domestic purchasing to explain the sudden deceleration, and further hope that the South African consumer picks up the pace in Q2 now that the rand has reclaimed most of last year's losses.

Speaking of the rand, it finally met resistance in the market after challenging the R9.9/US$ level. We will make a simplified case that this is the extent to which the rand can strengthen without becoming overvalued and diminishing its global competitiveness. Even with the inevitable rate hike due next month (100 basis points, no more, no less), the currency has returned to a level considered just under parity, which has traditionally been its territory over the past seven years. Unless there is a spate of heavily bullish news in the coming month, the rally has indeed run its course.

James Pressler
Associate International Economist

Quelle

<center>

<HR>

</center>

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Südafrika - Q1 GDP Meets Expectations, But Underlying Trends Surprise - Cosa, 29.05.2002, 11:13