KANN NUR NOCHMALS HERAUSSCHREIEN: LESEN!!!

verfasst von drooy, 30.05.2002, 10:14

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>5/29 James E. Sinclair and Harry D. Schultz - GOLD MINES EXPOSED
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>GOLD MINES EXPOSED
>(as gold bull market enters overdrive)
>By James E. Sinclair & Harry D. Schultz
>
>
>--WHY gold will go parabolic --HOW good gold news will be fatally
>bad news for many (most?) mines--as the price rises. --"Hedges" is
>wrong word. They aren’t hedges! A pity.
>
>
>To clarify our position on hedging, we believe it’s the right on any
>commodity producing company to set a price for their product in the
>future so as to be able to accurately project/ budget future expenses
>against a known revenue. Our concern is not hedging. Our concern is the
>vehicles that are being used to hedge. And also the use of these
>instruments to bring on new production in a"negative market" for the
>commodity gold, which would otherwise have reversed its price
>negativity, ie, a market price below total cost, then around $350. We
>experienced a 22 year bear market in gold prolonged artificially by the
>constant financially unnatural increase in production, not justified by
>natural market forces.
>
>
>It’s a miracle the gold producers did not kill their own golden goose
>stone dead beyond revival. Now the gold producer’s foolishness threatens
>gold's monetary application by artificially forcing gold too high in price,
>too early, before the fundamental equation is wholly behind it. Now that
>the ineptitude of the gold producing industry failed to kill gold on the
>down side, it seems they are about to try & kill gold by inadvertently
>forcing gold too high before its time. All the while the management of the
>gold producer sit in their ivory towers, smugly considering us alarmists.
>For over 40 years, We (separately or jointly) have analysed the price of
>gold more acutely than anyone in the exploration, development, advisory,
>media, mining field. But the leaders prefer to listen to only those who
>have sold them these instruments of financial incapacity.
>
>The instruments being used today are non transparent, unregulated, non
>market priced, private treaty unlisted arrangements. These instruments
>have no clearinghouse facility therefore they present significant counterparty
>risk. What a bill of good the gold banks have sold to the gold
>industry. It is in grave danger of significant financial problems as a result.
>It’s so perverse these problems are brought on by the very bull market we
>have so long desired.
>
>
>The truth is out---U read it first herewith, & in HSL. HSL is the Free
>Gold Press leading edge. We are warriors in the war for sound money,
>transparency, governance & level playing fields; which is the stuff Free
>Markets are made of.
>
>
>Let's have a fast review before we reveal to U the shocking truth of greed
>gone wild in the gold cartel.
>1/Gold almost never leads a rise in the commodity market. Yet today it is.
>2/Gold is rising for other & sound reasons.
>3/ Many key commodities (Soy, Wheat, and Sugar) are far below their
>cost of production & have been for the normal multi-year inventory takedown
>period.
>4/The equation that is the soundest fundamental reason for a gold bull
>market is a growing current account balance (overseas holders of US $¹s)
>with a growing US budget deficit plus a classic technical top in the
>USDX (index measuring $'s performance trade weighted) & a lower bond
>market.
>5/The Federal Reserve is in the tightest box since it was (illegally)
>founded in 1913. Its mission then & now is to prevent liquidity meltdowns.
>The Federal Reserve later this year will not lead interest rates
>higher but only follow the mkt in catch-up action to the market reality of
>higher rates. If the Federal Reserve dared to lead interest rates higher in
>2002, U would see NASDOG below 1000. That is being boxed in!
>6/US stocks show ongoing weakness, confirming a bear mkt.
>7/ Notional Value of a derivative becomes Real Market Value at $354
>gold as a product of risk control systems used by all gold banks and
>derivative traders. This is a key element of this analysis as the numbers
>U are about to see become real $ figures in the marketplace.
>
>
>Anyone in gold knows that a 22 year bear market is a very long time. U
>also know the fundamentals that sparked the boom of the 80s & 90s has a
>lot to do with accounting mirrors & the Madness of the Crowd syndrome.
>Much has occurred in gold during this period & the biggest event is the
>advent of Gold Banks, Gold Derivatives, Gold Leasing & Financial (not
>Mining) leadership (virtual control) of gold producing companies. Gold
>producers became commodity traders. The Treasury Depts of gold
>producers became incubators of Chairmen & CEOs. The big guns made
>more money shorting the gold mkt via derivatives than they did mining
>gold. They first got short not by logic but as a gimmick‹sold to them by
>gold banks to obtain development money. They thus helped the gold mkt
>go lower by constant selling of future product.
>
>
>As proponents of Free Markets, we have no objection to a commodity
>producer seeking to fix the sales price of the item they produce. They
>need to know a hard revenue figure in order to project spending. But that
>is not what happened in the last 10 years. Producers liked the profits from
>being short gold & loved non-recourse loans for production that require
>shorting the production. It is now time we all stopped calling these
>maneuvers hedging. It is not. It is shorting gold. Yes, it’s hidden in a
>maze of sometimes incoherent derivative transactions but the bottom line
>of a commodity spread is that it is a short sale.
>
>The producers were not satisfied with the Comex 2-year facility to short
>gold. They did not want to put up the margin requirements. Rather they
>stampeded into the New Age Derivative market of the gold banks. Here
>they could deal in so-called No Margin Call Hedges which are in the
>main loan lines against in-ground production without margin
>requirements or complex put/call arrangements. They bought already
>constructed packages of derivatives as required by their lenders on
>development loans for new production, often without putting up cash out
>of treasury first. To prove that the company itself had little knowledge of
>what they were doing, Ashanti had to call in a rocket scientist from
>Goldman Sachs just to figure out how deep they were in a financial hole
>when gold crossed $325 in the summer of 2000. Many of the present gold
>producing hedgers are dependent on in-house accountants or their gold
>bank to explain what they are doing. We submit that the board of
>directors of these companies if questioned individually would not have a
>clue about what they hold in their" clear & present danger" positions.
>
>
>We know who does know. We can only identify these people to U as Dr.
>No & Hung Fat. They are running the gold market now, not the cartel.
>The cartel thinks it has an upper hand but it is in a bear trap that has
>already snapped closed on their financial legs. The Gold Cartel is so fat,
>egotistic & ignorant they don’t yet know they are dead in the water.
>Here is what Dr. No and Hung Fat know;
>Major Central Banks Gold Holdings: The Long Position
>--Here are the facts about mine shorting that they & the cartel don’t want
>U to read. We dug them out via our specially hired R&D team:
>Major Central Bank's Gold Holdings
> Metric Tons Troy Ounces Value at $300
>U.S. 8149 261,998,499 78,599,549,700
>Germany 3456.6 111,133,147 33,339,943,980
>IMF 3217.3 103,439,412 31,031,823,690
>France 3024.8 97,250,345 29,175,103,440
>Italy 2451.8 78,827,822 23,648,346,540
>Switzerland 2149.7 69,115,005 20,734,501,410
>Netherlands 884.5 28,437,560 8,531,267,850
>ECB 767 24,659,817 7,397,945,100
>Japan 765.2 24,601,945 7,380,583,560
>Portugal 606.8 19,509,227 5,852,768,040
>Spain 523.4 16,827,833 5,048,350,020
>China 500 16,075,500 4,822,653,000
>Russia 424.2 13,638,454 4,091,536,260
>Tiawan 421.8 13,561,292 4,068,387,540
>India 357.8 11,503,628 3,451,088,340
>
> 27699.9 890,579,485 267,173,845,470
>Avialable for sale (@ 62 2/3) 558,096,744 167,429,032,219
>
>
>Gold Producers Short Gold Position:
> GOLD COMPANY % OF YEARLY PRODUCTION HEDGED
>
>Agnico Eagle 0%
>Ashanti 873%
>Aurion Gold 862%
>Aurora Gold 186%
>Anglo Gold 184%
>Barrick Gold 298%
>Cambior 309%
>Cameco 400%
>Durban Deep 67%
>Echo Bay 27%
>Freeport McM 0%
>Glamis Gold 0%
>Goldcorp 0%
>Goldfields 0%
>GRD 964%
>Harmony 99%
>Hecla Mines 102%
>Hill 50 645%
>IAMGold 68%
>Inmet Gold 80%
>Kiross Gold 54%
>Lihir Gold 404%
>Meridan 0%
>Mim Holdings 135%
>Newmont/Norm. 124%
>Normandy NFM 407%
>Placer Dome 1202%
>Resolute 105%
>Rio Tinto 0%
>Sons of Gwalia 1157%
>Teck-Cominco +A16 95%
>TVX Gold 220%
>Western Areas* 506%
>
> 198%
>
>* Western Areas poduction number is low due to restructuring.
>
>
>Total Ounces sold Short BY Producers 94,832,857 oz = $30,346,514,240 @ $320 AU
>
>Total Nominal Value of derivatives on the books of the Commercial
>Banks of the reporting 48 nations of the IMF survey.
>900,000,000 oz. or $278,000,000,000 @ $320 gold = USD$288,000,000,000
>Gold producers need to know what they’re up against. Gold Producers are the
>smallest presence in the Gold Derivative market! FYI, at $354 gold producers only 11% of the total notional value which then will be a real value. ----Now U know the Shocking truth of the greed driven gold banks.
>Gold Producers are ONLY 11% of the TOTAL World Gold Derivative ounces and value.
>
>Who are the others? They are the Wise Guys. On Wall
>Street, we call those who are in the gold derivative market without a
>commodity producing reason, the Wise Guys. These Wise Guys are the
>Carry Trade who are, like the producers, short gold spreads & entities that
>have used the gold lease derivative market for financing their business
>that has nothing whatever to do with producing, rendering or selling gold.
>Dr. No & Hung Fat are not gunning for the producers. They are after the
>Wise Guys. The Gold Derivative market is a cornered short sided market
>in a corner. This is a titanic secret market struggle between giants. The
>recent 300pt DJIA 1-day wonder rally is an example of what can happen
>when the short side of anything gets crowded. Gold is, in a volume sense,
>a peanut market but with a short corner of such mammoth proportions
>that anyone with one synapse speaking to another can understand how
>dire is the condition of the derivative dealing gold banks.
>Now what does a cornered rat do?. When Jesse Livermore cornered the
>coffee mkt in the early 1900s he had everything fundamental going for
>him. What he forgot was the political connections of the coffee importers
>& the US govt. The importers were short to Livermore who was long.
>They called their pals in Washington & demanded price & import
>controls. Poor Jesse got walloped on that position because he forgot to
>calculate what short rats will do when cornered.
>Dr. No & Hung Fat are too smart to make the mistake Jesse Livermore
>made. They know exactly what the derivative shorts will do & when.
>Nothing is new on the face of this earth. They will call the Central Banks
>& demand the Cavalry comes to the rescue. U must have seen recently
>the Cartel looked downright non professional in their selling into a bag
>held by these two great Asian traders. The Cartel is losing its power &
>only providing an easy accumulation of more positions for sources of
>money that make the cartel look poor in comparison.
>Now let’s assume Dr. No & Hung Fat push gold, in time, above the
>critical $354 & the derivative melt down is at 2000 degrees F. The
>Commercial Banks scream to their power sources. The Central Banks line
>up to sell their gold, with the exception of those under the Washington
>Agreement. All they can offer is: 561,065,075 ounces worth @ gold price
>$354: $201,422,361. But the derivative short position is
>900,000,000 oz with a value @ $354 of $ 318,600,000,000.00
>That means the situation now is that the derivative gold short position is
>equal to all the gold held by all the central banks outside of the
>Washington Agreement. U now know why the Washington agreement
>came into place in order to prevent just what is happening. Those Central
>Banks, seeing the figures, hoped to slow down the gold derivative trade
>by freezing their participation in it. Now U know why traditional gold
>dealers are leaving the gold mkt & expunging these instruments from
>their books.
>If all Central Banks in the world sold all the gold they held in a
>derivative melt-down they would make the following offer: All Central
>Banks = 890,579,485 ounces of gold held to a Short Derivative Position
>forced to cover of 900,000,000 oz. Assuming that central banks then held
>no gold at all, the gold price would be in the hands of Dr. No & Hung Fat
>who would more than likely sell a segment for over $2000 per ounce with
>the attendant negative effect on the US Dollar, making gold even more
>valuable.Thus it is reasonable to assume Central Banks will not sell all or even a
>large part of their remaining gold. It will then be their primary reserve
>asset, growing in value, & like the 70s they are more apt to buy then sell
>regardless of silly rhetoric.
>In conclusion, we again say to the gold producers, expunge your books
>of all derivative contracts. U have alternative means of financing your
>development projects today. You can go recourse on your loans for new
>production without fear of financial problems. Your financial problems
>lie more in the counter-party risk of the paper gold short derivative
>spreads U hold now! There is no free lunch & there’s no commodity
>contract without a margin call. We do not oppose hedging done correctly,
>in open, listed, clearing house indebted instruments.
>(This is an HSL/FMU copyright article. Permission to reproduce is
>hereby granted, provided phrases are not quoted out of context &
>provided full by-line credit is given with email addresses:
>www.HSLetter.com and www.Tanrange.com Embargo: No reproduction
>permitted until May 29, 2002) END.
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> Copyright 1999, 2002 Le Metropole Cafe. All rights reserved.
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gesamter Thread:

• Bitte ALLE lesen - drooy, 30.05.2002, 08:16
  • Danke für den Link - Albrecht, 30.05.2002, 10:11
  • Danke für den Link - Albrecht, 30.05.2002, 10:13
  • KANN NUR NOCHMALS HERAUSSCHREIEN: LESEN!!! - drooy, 30.05.2002, 10:14
    • Mach ich doch, mach ich doch. Danke für's Reinstellen (owT) - Diogenes, 30.05.2002, 10:52