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Mix-Ansicht- MIXED SENTIMENT INDICATORS - leibovitz, 05.06.2002, 16:43
MIXED SENTIMENT INDICATORS
sentiment ist zwar schon im"oversold" level aber...
MIXED SENTIMENT INDICATORS
The NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll continues to give a mildly bullish reading at just 39.8% bulls. That is well into the extremely pessimistic zone where nearly all of the solid rallies since 1995 have originated. So why do I rate it just mildly bullish? First of all, I like to compare investor liquidity with some measure of Fed-induced liquidity. Our chart S926 looks at the 13-week rate of change in all money market mutual fund accounts. Over the last 13 weeks they have plunged at an 11.4% annual rate. That rate of decline has, at least, quit falling, but the negative liquidity readings have made it hard for the market to sustain an advance. Secondly, our Wall Street Strategist Sentiment Poll shown on chart S0576 is giving"extreme optimism" readings where the S&P 500 has lost money since 1985. I like the Crowd Sentiment Poll better than this one, especially for shorter-term trading, but at really
important lows I would expect the Wall Street Strategists to be cautious as well. Finally, look at chart S502 below. This is another sentiment indicator (from Investors Intelligence) and we find it most useful when combined with monetary trends. As can be seen, this indicator flashed a buy signal on September 21, 2001 right at the bottom. I featured this buy signal two days earlier on September 19 th in a Chart of the Day saying,"…a buy signal this week is guaranteed. As shown on the chart, all 19 prior buy signals (100%) were closed out profitably. There were some buy signals that just led to short-term rallies, but there were also some great long-term buys." However, my Hotline for March 27 th was entitled"BULLSEYE BUY INDICATOR FLASHES SELL", and it featured the March 22, 2002 sell signal as shown on S502.
To get a new buy signal from the"monetary conditions" background, we need only a little more rally in short-term govs. If we get that, we could get a new buy signal on this chart if Investors Intelligence bulls/bulls plus bears falls to just below 51% bulls. However, for now, the indicator is still on a sell signal. These three charts and indicators -- S926, S0576, and S502 -- tell me that the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll should probably show extraordinary pessimism before it is rated bullish. The fact Big Mo continues to deteriorate (see yesterday's Chart of the Day) tells me the overall evidence is no better than neutral. So I would continue to be a little defensive waiting for better (and more confirmed) indicator evidence. --Ned
<ul> ~ quelle</ul>
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