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Mix-Ansicht- Geldvernichtung - Prognose - Popeye, 14.06.2002, 07:18
Geldvernichtung - Prognose
When Will Defaults Peak?
The first quarter of 2002 was unique in that more than half of the rated
companies from Argentina defaulted. This came on top of global default
rates that were already very high, creating a temporary spike. As the
Argentine defaults were a one-time event, Standard & Poor's does not
expect to see a repeat of the first quarter's exceedingly high default rate.
Taking Argentina into account, it is safe to say that defaults peaked
during the first quarter of 2002.
Even when Argentine defaults are excluded, default rates continue to be
very high, largely due to the poor credit quality of speculative grade
issues in the late 1990s. Of the high yield issues rated by Standard &
Poor's between 1997 and 1999, 24% were rated 'B-' or lower. Poor
credit quality combined with a weak economy resulted in the high default
rates of the several quarters. Chart 5 shows that quarterly
speculative-grade default rates have plateaued at a little over 2% since
the first quarter of 2001.
These same factors will persists through much of 2002 and point to
continued high default rates in the near term. Defaults tend to lag
economic recoveries, so the recovery of the U.S. economy will not have
a positive effect on default rates for months to come. In addition, credit
quality continues to be very poor, although it is improving (see chart 6),
and there continue to be many speculative grade companies that were
first rated in the late 1990s. However, credit spreads have been
tightening over the last few months, suggesting that the market expects
default rates to improve.
Quelle: Standard & Poors
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