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Mix-Ansicht- Kurzfristig Dollar, Euro und last not least Yen - nasdaq, 16.06.2002, 19:56
- Währungsspekulation - der Mount Everest der Zockerseelen ;-) mkT - silvereagle, 16.06.2002, 21:20
- Re: Kurzfristig Dollar, Euro und last not least Yen - Valueinvestor, 16.06.2002, 21:51
Kurzfristig Dollar, Euro und last not least Yen
Meine Meinung Euro hoch, Dollar und Yen runter Yen sogar gegen Dollar.
ABER wir sind charttechnisch an der Grenze einer Rallye im Euro, die mit dieser Geschwindigkeit meiner Meinung nach nicht weiter gehen kann. Deshalb sollte man sich nochmals folgende Argumente der US-believer anhören (aus dem Barrons Magazine) Aufgrund der Signifikanz dieses Magazins und dem nach wie vor starken Glauben an die US-Konjunktur, der nur sehr langsam abnehmen wird sollte man sich evtl. kurzfristig eine Stop bzw. Ausstiegsstrategie für kurzlaufende EuroDollar Trades überlegen und gegebenenfalls bei 0,90 wieder in eine längerfristigere Spekulationen übergehen.
Auf jeden Fall scheint die Zeit für eine Konsolidierung vor dem brechen der Widerstände bei 0,96-0,97 gekommen zu sein.
Let's have him start with the euro:
"If you listen to the Europeans," says Weinberg,"America's economic recovery is flawed and will fail. The Yanks spend too much, save too little, and can't afford to finance their own consumption. But there's no real evidence that the U.S. economy is in danger of faltering, or that growth in Euroland will amount to much this year. So I think the euro's rise is more of a speculative move, driven by hot money, than a shift based on fundamentals."
Euroland's gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 0.8% in the first quarter; the current quarter should remain stagnant, and Eurolanders would be lucky to see growth average 2% through the next few quarters, says Weinberg. In the U.S., by contrast, first quarter GDP rose by 5.6%, and should run 3%-4% over the first few quarters.
Wage costs adjusted for productivity -- called unit labor costs -- have been declining in the U.S., which is good news for profits. In Europe, productivity growth can't keep up with wage growth, so unit labor costs have been rising. The S&P 500 has declined this year, but the German DAX and French CAC, both comparable to the S&P, are down by even more. Returns on European bonds have run slightly lower than on U.S. bonds.
The bulls counter that the key point is not that the U.S. is still performing better than Europe; it's that the gap in performance has narrowed. Of course, parries Weinberg; that's why he doubts the euro will trade in the 85-cent region, as it did in fourth quarter 2000; 87-90 cents is more like it.
"The technicians tell me that the next big objective level for the euro is 96.4 cents," he comments."I look for the euro to bounce off that level and retrace."
In Weinberg's view, the yen is an easier case. Starting with the fundamentals, the strength in Japan's first-quarter GDP growth was another example of déjà vu. First-quarter growth in 2001 was nearly as strong -- only to be followed by three straight quarters of contraction. Weinberg expects much the same this year. True, the Nikkei stock index is still up for the year, but the steep slide over the past few weeks is surely cause for worry.
So, then, why the rebound from the yen's long-term slide against the dollar, and why the expected reversal by June 28? Simple, says Weinberg: The G-8 Summit meeting is set for June 26-28.
As he explains,"Japan's Finance Ministry has driven the yen stronger by requiring that big pools of money defer overseas investment until after the G-8 Summit. This project has gotten a bit out of hand, however, prompting the FinMin to slow the yen's rise with intervention."
The point of the whole thing?"Japan's Prime Minister Koizumi-san will want to brag that his country is not seeking to boost its exports with a cheap yen policy. But after the Summit, until the mark-to-market at the fiscal midyear in September, the yen will be guided lower." Japan's companies will want to mark their foreign assets with a cheaper yen, making those holdings more valuable in yen.
Weinberg says the main risk to his forecast is that foreign investors will shun U.S. markets out of fear of more accounting scandals, a concern he has heard on his travels abroad. But otherwise, the euro might once again fall back into the eurinal -- and the yen may never glimpse the rising sun.
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