Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- What's Wrong With This Picture? - Cosa, 30.06.2002, 22:38
- Re: What's Wrong With This Picture? - Nothing at all! (owT) - Popeye, 30.06.2002, 22:45
- Re: What's Wrong With This Picture? - Popeye, 30.06.2002, 22:49
- LIMBO *g* - Cosa, 30.06.2002, 23:08
- Re: LIMBO *g* - Ganz toller Artikel, Cosa!!! Ist archiviert! - Popeye, 30.06.2002, 23:20
- LIMBO *g* - Cosa, 30.06.2002, 23:08
What's Wrong With This Picture?
<font size="4">What's Wrong With This Picture?</font>
What's wrong with this picture? At a time when the economy was supposedly recovering, year-over-year sales of the S&P Industrials in the first quarter were plunging at a record 10.4%. This is the real thing, and it's therefore no wonder why corporate executives are far gloomier than economists. It also explains why these managers are selling their own company stock at a ratio of 4-to-1 over purchases. July is the time when government economists and statisticians make their annual benchmark revisions to the GDP data, and we have a feeling that they will make some significant downside revisions. Almost all of the initial reports of the various components of the GDP are based on sampling, and the rest is a guess based on past experience. Historically, we have seen some important revisions, and the lackluster S&P Industrial sales strongly hint that the revisions this time will be on the downside. The changes are scheduled for release on July 31. Stay tuned.
Even on data reported so far, the economic recovery seems to be wavering. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for June was down, with the expectations sector at its lowest point since February. Monthly mass layoffs were up for the third straight month, and are at the highest level since January, while a number of the purchasing managers' regional surveys showed a slowdown in growth for June. May retail sales were off by 0.1%, the worst results since last November. Even the first quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 6.1% was not as strong as it seemed since 65% of the rise reflected a swing in inventories. The only really strong sector is housing, and this is ironically being helped by the drop in mortgage rates as a result of weakness elsewhere in the economy.
Some economists and strategists think that there is a disconnect between a strong economy and a weak stock market. We think that the disconnect may go the other way. A market selling at over 40 times trailing 12-month earnings is far too highly valued for an economy where S&P Industrial sales are falling 10.4% over a year ago.
Quelle
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