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Mix-Ansicht- Investor Panic Still Ahead - Cosa, 30.06.2002, 22:51
- Danke! Ganz geniale Details. (owT) - El Sheik, 01.07.2002, 02:45
Investor Panic Still Ahead
Hi,
der Text ist zwar schon vom 27.6., also nicht mehr so jung, aber mit ein paar interessanten Zahlen...
<font size="4">Investor Panic Still Ahead</font>
To paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen in his vice-presidential debate with Dan Quayle,"We have seen some selling capitulations, and this was not it." Neither was the decline last September. A selling climax takes place over a number of weeks or months and is characterized by severe price declines on extraordinarily heavy volume. Investors dump stocks without regard to valuations in order to relieve themselves of excruciating worry and get a good night's sleep. At that point the last thing on their minds is seeking a stock market bottom, as they would just as soon never go near the market again.
The market capitulation ending in the October 1974 bottom is a good example. The Dow plunged 28% in the final six weeks on heavy volume as investors sold with abandon. At the trough the price-earnings ratio was seven, while 68% of investment advisors were bearish, equity mutual fund cash was almost 12% of assets and only 4% of stocks were above their 200-day average. The financial magazines were universally gloomy, and none were touting the 10 best stocks for recovery as they are today. This is not the case at present.
Paul Desmond of Lowry?s Reports has also measured capitulation statistically. He found that during the 1962 market decline there were seven days in which 90% of the NYSE volume was on the downside. There were six in 1970, 14 in 1973-1974, two in 1987, seven in 1990 and three in 1998. There was not a single such down day in the decline from May through September 2001, and none recently. In our view the real investor panic is still ahead, and the market is likely to go far lower.
Quelle
Gruss
Cosa
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