Vielleicht hilft das:

verfasst von drooy, 02.07.2002, 23:23

A stock we've been asked about many times over the past several months is
silver/gold producer Coeur D'Alene (NYSE: CDE). Our advice has always been
that CDE's enormous debt made it unsuitable as an investment and even as a
trade since the company has periodically been at risk of going under.

Until today we hadn't taken a close look at CDE since around this time last
year. Prior to the April/May surge there was no reason to look closely at a
small silver/gold producer with massive debt since there were other stocks
that presented far more appealing risk/reward ratios. For example, why would
we take on the likely aggravation of owning CDE when a company such as
Corner Bay Silver (BAY) was still exceptional value? However, over the past
2 months it has become far more difficult to find good value amongst the
stocks of gold and silver producers, so today we decided to take another
look at CDE.

CDE is expected to produce 15M ounces of silver and 100K ounces of gold this
year. At current prices that amounts to revenue of about US$106M. This is a
healthy sum since CDE's current market cap is only about $100M.

CDE's proven and probable reserves are 83M ounces of silver and 2.3M ounces
of gold, or 3.5M ounces of gold equivalent. This means that CDE's gold
reserves are selling for less than US$30/ounce. This is low.

CDE's major drawback, as usual, is its debt. We estimate that its total debt
is around US$140M, a huge sum for such a small company. However, the company
has done a good job of restructuring its debt such that almost none of it
matures until at least the end of 2003. This means that CDE is now
positioned to survive for at least another 18 months. For this reason CDE
can be likened to a call option on the prices of gold and silver with an
expiry date at least 18 months into the future. Provided we get a
substantial and sustained gold/silver rally at some point between now and
the end of next year the value of this call option will increase
dramatically.

We are going to add a trading position in CDE to the TSI Portfolio and we
will treat it the same way we treat our call option positions. In other
words this is an all-or-nothing speculation, not an investment. CDE closed
at US$1.74 yesterday and that's the price we'll use for record purposes.
There is good support at around 1.50 and resistance at around 2.00.

In the Weekly Update we said that if the stock market headed back down
immediately and broke below last week's lows it would most likely set up a
good short-term buying opportunity. Monday's action moved the odds in favour
of an immediate breakdown. If such a breakdown occurs today and we get a
substantial spike in fear then we'll probably recommend one or two long-side
trades.

The CRB futures broke-out to the upside on Monday, thus confirming last
Friday's breakout in the cash CRB Index.

Please refer to the Weekly Update for all other analysis/views.

Best wishes,
Steve Saville


Mit freundlicher Erlaubnis von Steve, herzliche Grüsse Drooy


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gesamter Thread:

• Warum geht COEUR so ab? (owT) - Günter, 02.07.2002, 23:08
  • Vielleicht hilft das: - drooy, 02.07.2002, 23:23
    • Ãœbrigens von www.speculative-investor.com (owT) - drooy, 02.07.2002, 23:25
    • Danke für die Info, Grüße - Günter, 02.07.2002, 23:40
    • Re: Zusätzlich noch eine ausführlichere Bemerkung von mir zu COUER - yatri, 03.07.2002, 07:58
      • Re: ausführlichere Bemerkung von mir zu COUER - erläutert am Ende - yatri, 03.07.2002, 08:06