Danke für die Info, Grüße

verfasst von Günter, 02.07.2002, 23:40

>A stock we've been asked about many times over the past several months is
>silver/gold producer Coeur D'Alene (NYSE: CDE). Our advice has always been
>that CDE's enormous debt made it unsuitable as an investment and even as a
>trade since the company has periodically been at risk of going under.
>Until today we hadn't taken a close look at CDE since around this time last
>year. Prior to the April/May surge there was no reason to look closely at a
>small silver/gold producer with massive debt since there were other stocks
>that presented far more appealing risk/reward ratios. For example, why would
>we take on the likely aggravation of owning CDE when a company such as
>Corner Bay Silver (BAY) was still exceptional value? However, over the past
>2 months it has become far more difficult to find good value amongst the
>stocks of gold and silver producers, so today we decided to take another
>look at CDE.
>CDE is expected to produce 15M ounces of silver and 100K ounces of gold this
>year. At current prices that amounts to revenue of about US$106M. This is a
>healthy sum since CDE's current market cap is only about $100M.
>CDE's proven and probable reserves are 83M ounces of silver and 2.3M ounces
>of gold, or 3.5M ounces of gold equivalent. This means that CDE's gold
>reserves are selling for less than US$30/ounce. This is low.
>CDE's major drawback, as usual, is its debt. We estimate that its total debt
>is around US$140M, a huge sum for such a small company. However, the company
>has done a good job of restructuring its debt such that almost none of it
>matures until at least the end of 2003. This means that CDE is now
>positioned to survive for at least another 18 months. For this reason CDE
>can be likened to a call option on the prices of gold and silver with an
>expiry date at least 18 months into the future. Provided we get a
>substantial and sustained gold/silver rally at some point between now and
>the end of next year the value of this call option will increase
>dramatically.
>We are going to add a trading position in CDE to the TSI Portfolio and we
>will treat it the same way we treat our call option positions. In other
>words this is an all-or-nothing speculation, not an investment. CDE closed
>at US$1.74 yesterday and that's the price we'll use for record purposes.
>There is good support at around 1.50 and resistance at around 2.00.
>In the Weekly Update we said that if the stock market headed back down
>immediately and broke below last week's lows it would most likely set up a
>good short-term buying opportunity. Monday's action moved the odds in favour
>of an immediate breakdown. If such a breakdown occurs today and we get a
>substantial spike in fear then we'll probably recommend one or two long-side
>trades.
>The CRB futures broke-out to the upside on Monday, thus confirming last
>Friday's breakout in the cash CRB Index.
>Please refer to the Weekly Update for all other analysis/views.
>Best wishes,
>Steve Saville
>
>Mit freundlicher Erlaubnis von Steve, herzliche Grüsse Drooy


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gesamter Thread:

• Warum geht COEUR so ab? (owT) - Günter, 02.07.2002, 23:08
  • Vielleicht hilft das: - drooy, 02.07.2002, 23:23
    • Ãœbrigens von www.speculative-investor.com (owT) - drooy, 02.07.2002, 23:25
    • Danke für die Info, Grüße - Günter, 02.07.2002, 23:40
    • Re: Zusätzlich noch eine ausführlichere Bemerkung von mir zu COUER - yatri, 03.07.2002, 07:58
      • Re: ausführlichere Bemerkung von mir zu COUER - erläutert am Ende - yatri, 03.07.2002, 08:06