Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - Highlights der vergangenen Woche

Highlights der vergangenen Woche - verschiedene Märkte

verfasst von Cosa, 06.07.2002, 14:08

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Market Highlights
July 5, 2002<CENTER><TABLE width=548 border=0><TR><TD valign=top align=left width=90>Europe</TD><TD valign=top align=middle width=137>Asia / Pacific Rim</TD><TD valign=top align=middle width=137>America's</TD><TD valign=top align=middle width=184>Middle East / Africa's</TD></TR></TABLE></CENTER>

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USA:The details of the Jun. employment report were soft, which reduces expectations of a near-term hike in the fed. funds rate. Payrolls increased 36,000 and the civilian unemployment rate rose one notch to 5.9%. Despite the pickup in the ISM employment index, manufacturing jobs fell 23,000. The ISM index edged up 0.5 points to 56.2 in Jun., suggesting continued growth in the factory sector. Apr.-May construction outlays indicate that residential investment expenditures are likely to make a positive contribution to Q2 GDP, while non-residential expenditures dropped. Factory orders increased 0.7% in May, matching the Apr. gain.

Look for:
Jun. PPI (Jul. 11), Jun. retail sales and Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 12). Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Jun. will further reduce the possibility of a near-term rate hike.

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EMU:

The ECB left monetary policy unchanged but reiterated that risks remain to the medium-term outlook for prices. The Jun. consumer and business confidence indices dipped to -9 and -10, respectively, from -8 and -9 in May. The EC's index of economic sentiment ebbed to 99.6 in Jun. from May's 99.9. But manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in Jun. from 51.5 in May, and services PMI increased to 52.9 from May's 52.1. Apr. retail sales inched up 0.1% y-o-y, while May PPI was unch. on the month and fell 0.9% y-o-y. The May unemployment rate was unch. at 8.3%.

Look for:
Q2 GDP (Jul. 9), 2nd release of Q2 labor costs, and the ECB's Jul. monthly bulletin (Jul. 11).

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JAPAN:

The Jun."tankan" survey of business sentiment's key diffusion index for major manufacturers jumped a record 20 points, to -18, but the small manufacturers' index rose only 10 points to a still-glum -41, and large firms forecast a 6.7% contraction in investment this year, implying a weak economy. May's leading indicator rose to 88.9 (75.0 in Apr.) and the coincident index hit 100 (80.0 in Apr.), a clear sign of economic recovery. Also, May household spending fell 1.6% y-o-y.

Look for:
Jun. money supply, WPI, bank lending, and May core private machinery orders (all Jul. 8).

<CENTER><IMG src="http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/market/images/020705_04.gif" alt="Chart 4" border="0"></CENTER>

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<A name="europe"></a><CENTER>Europe</CENTER>
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France:

Q1 GDP rose 0.4% q-o-q and 0.2% y-o-y, compared with -0.4 and 0.5%, respectively in Q401. More encouraging was the 1.0% q-o-q rise in business investment, which should bode well for continuing growth down the road. This adds to the good news from the Jun. PMI survey, which rose to 53.9 vs. a downward-revised 52.6 in May. (A reading greater than 50 suggests expansion). ECB President Duisenberg joined the fray over France's budget situation, and chided Paris over its plan to make a balanced budget conditional on growth. The French PM tied tax-cut pledges to growth as well.

Look for:
the budget debate between Brussels and France to intensify, especially if Germany, Italy, and Portugal follow France's lead. Data-wise, May industrial production and Jun. CPI (Jul. 12).

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Germany:

Jun. manufacturing PMI broke above the 50 breakeven level, touching 50.2 from 49.8 in May (services PMI was 50.9 vs. 49.1). May retail sales were up a real 1.6% m-o-m but still down 4.6% y-o-y, while industrial orders rose 3.1% from Apr. Leaked labor figures suggest Jun. joblessness fell yet again. Despite a World Cup loss and US woes, the DAX ended up for the week.

Look for:
May trade, current account figures (Jul. 10) to be encouraging, while Jun. CPI (Jul. 11) should be a non-event.

<CENTER><IMG src="http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/market/images/020705_06.gif" alt="Chart 6" border="0"></CENTER>

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Italy:

Manufacturing PMI ebbed to 51.1 in Jun. from 51.8 in May. PPI rose 0.1% on the month and fell 0.9% on the year. Rome criticized the EC's decision to treat securitization differently when calculating national accounts of EU members that have used state assets to generate revenue without issuing debt. Equity prices have followed the downward move of US equities recently.

Look for:
a very quiet week ahead with no scheduled data releases.

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Netherlands:

Jun. CPI fell 0.3% m-o-m and rose 3.4% y-o-y (0.0% and +3.3%, respectively, in May), still among the euro-zone's highest. Revised Q1 GDP data showed growth of 0.1% q-o-q and 0.2% y-o-y, vs. the initial estimates of zero.

Look for:
May retail sales (Jul. 10) and manufacturing output (Jul. 11).

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Norway:

On Jul. 3 the central bank raised its key deposit rate, by 50 bp., bringing the rate to 7.0%, and retained its tightening bias. The rate now stands at more than 2x's the ECB's refi rate. Despite the May CPI falling in line with much of the globe, the core CPI has been periodically above the central bank's 2.5% annual target, mainly due to rising wages. The central bank also raised its inflation outlook to 2.75% for 2004. The Jun. unemployment rate rose to 3.1%, vs. 2.9% in May.

Look for:
the krone to maintain its historic strength against the euro, until the fall when the ECB begins to raise rates, but for Norges Bank to again raise rates another 50 basis points, possibly as soon as the August 7 meeting.

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Poland:

FM Belka resigned over the center-left govt.'s decision to widen the targeted 2003 budget deficit to PLN43 bn. from PLN40 bn. that the former FM advocated. The large cap WIG-20 declined to 2002 lows before recovering at the end of the week. The zloty continued to linger around two-year lows. Grzegorz Kolodko, a former finance minister (1994-97), was re-appointed to that post on Fri.

Look for:
turbulence in the financial markets as Kolodko's reputation for browbeating the central bank and not controlling spending in his previous turn as FM will now heighten tensions between the NBP and the center-left govt.

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Slovak Republic:

PM Dzurinda survived yesterday's vote of no-confidence, the 16th time that the opposition HZDS party of Vladimir Meciar, the autocratic ex-premier, has attempted to topple the premier. The koruna dipped on warnings from the central bank that it might have to raise interest rates to counter the deterioration of the trade deficit.

Look for:
Jun. CPI and May industrial production (both on Jul. 8).

<CENTER><IMG src="http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/market/images/020705_11.gif" alt="Chart 11" border="0"></CENTER>

<HR size=2 noshade>UK:

The BoE kept the repo rate at 4.0% as inflation remains low and stock market jitters continue. Jun. house prices soared 19.3% y-o-y. Sterling rose against the euro on rumors that the govt. will postpone a referendum on joining EMU until after the next election.

Look for:

Jun. producer prices (Jul. 8), May trade account (Jul. 9), and May industrial production (Jul. 10). If the economic recovery still looks soft, and inflation remains below target, expect the BoE to keep rates steady in Aug. and even Sep.

<CENTER><IMG src="http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/market/images/020705_12.gif" alt="Chart 12" border="0"></CENTER><IMG src="/images/backtotop.gif" border=0>

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<CENTER>ASIA & THE PACIFIC RIM</CENTER>
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Australia:

The RBA held the OCR at 4.75%. The central bank did not release a comment, but it is believed that current negative sentiment in the US and European markets kept it from tightening. In May, retail sales rose 1.1% m-o-m and the trade gap widened again. The A$ backed off from its recent highs against the US$ following the decision.

Look for:
Jun. unemployment (Jul. 11), but more important will be Q2 CPI (Jul. 24). If the data show higher price pressures, expect the RBA to resume ratcheting up interest rates at its Aug. 6 mtg.

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New Zealand:

As expected, the RBNZ hiked the OCR 25 bp to 5.75%. The hike is the fourth this year and brings the rate to its pre-Sep. 11 level.

Look for:
May retail sales (Jul. 9) and Q2 inflation (Jul. 15). If the NZ$ continues its current strength, expect the RBNZ to pause for a bit in its tightening cycle.

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South Korea:

A naval clash with the North last Sat. prompted harder-line rhetoric from Pres. Kim, and increased military surveillance and strengthened rules of engagement from Seoul and the US. FDI climbed 29.4% on the year in Jan.-Jun., with 60% of the total flows from the US and just 20% from the EU. The BoK hiked its 2002 GDP growth forecast to 6.5% (5.7% prev.) and warned of mounting inflationary pressure in H2, but kept the o/n call target rate at 4.25% again, citing persistent worries about the world economy. The govt. twice intervened to weaken the won, but only verbally, after it hit a 19-month high yesterday.

Look for:
policy re-the North to be increasingly tough thanks to the approaching Dec. presidential election, as Kim's failed engagement approach is attacked by the opposition GNP. The BoK will favor a tighter stance in coming months.

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Taiwan:

The CBC cut key interest rates 25 bp, effective today, to try to curb the T$, trading at 13-month highs vs. the US$. The economy is in a self-sustaining recovery - May's index of leading indicators rose for the 8th consecutive month, to 103.8 (103.1 in Apr.), and manufacturing capacity utilization hit 78.5% (77.1% in Apr.).

Look for:
the CBC to keep a close eye on the f/x rate. Further US$ weakness could trigger more rate cuts over the summer, tho' likely only by 12.5 bp.

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Vietnam:

The central bank widened the dong/US$ trading band by less than expected, to 0.25% (0.1% prev.)., effective Jul. 1. Local bankers complained the move was not enough to boost dollar supply in the interbank market. H1 GDP rose a real 6.7% y-o-y, below the govt.'s full-year target of 7.0-7.3% thanks to a weaker showing by the commodity-based export sector, but still one of the region's best rates, supported by domestic consumption and investment.

Look for:
further widening of the dong/US$ trading band later this year.

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<CENTER>THE AMERICAS</CENTER>
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Argentina:

The peso was buoyed by President Duhalde's call for Mar. 2003 elections rather than Sep. 2003, and the IMF's statement that there was"new momentum" in its talks with Buenos Aires. Today is the last day for depositors to switch their money into bonds, and reportedly less than 1% of deposits have been converted, making it likely that the govt. will make the switch mandatory to save a financial system that does not have the cash to meet dollar demand. Jun. CPI rose 3.6% m-o-m, down from 4.0% in May. The peso hit 3.57 vs. the US$ today after closing last week at 3.85.

Look for:
a joint mission of the IMF and the World Bank to arrive in Buenos Aires on Jul. 8. Contrary to previous missions, expectations surrounding these talks are positive, but both the IMF and Argentina have been disappointed before.

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Brazil:

The central bank intervened to support the real, which came under pressure after S&P cut Brazil's sovereign credit rating from BB- to B+ due to debt-servicing concerns as a result of the presidential election. Both the US and the IMF have attempted to assure markets that the country's economics are sound, but so far markets are not convinced.

Look for:
the BCB to reduce the Selic from 18.5% at its Jul. 16-17 mtg. no matter what the Jun. IPCA inflation data (Jul.10) will show. Expect the presidential campaign to heat up and the large numbers of undecided voters to choose a candidate now that Brazil has won the World Cup. But even if the govt. candidate, Serra, begins to close the gap to Lula, the damage to the economy may have already been done.

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Canada:

The Jun. unemployment rate fell to 7.5% (7.7% in May) on stronger-than-expected jobs growth.

Look for:
a rate hike from the BoC on Jul. 16, probably by 25 bp but 50 bp cannot be ruled out entirely. With no key Canadian data due before the announcement, local markets will be driven by US data and events.

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Colombia: 

The government cut its 2002 GDP growth forecast to 1.0-2.0% and agreed to lop $940 mn. from this year's budget to meet IMF targets"no matter what the cost." The new forecast is in line with our expectations this year. The Q1 current account gap narrowed to $384 mn. from $677 mn. in Q1 2001. The May urban jobless rate fell to 17.5% from Apr.'s 18.3%, Apr. industrial output (ex. coffee) rose 7.8% y-o-y - the highest rate this year, and Apr. retail sales fell 2.17% y-o-y.

Look for:
guerilla violence to increase in the run-up to Pres.-elect Uribe's Aug. 7 inauguration.

<CENTER><IMG src="http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/market/images/020705_20.gif" alt="Chart 20" border="0"></CENTER>

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<CENTER>MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA</CENTER>
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Kuwait:

A constitutional crisis was avoided when the finance minister survived a vote of no confidence by a 23-22 decision, with three abstentions. The govt. vowed to resign if the FM was forced out.

Look for:
rising concerns about latest US news regarding operations against Iraq to weigh heavily on the markets.

<CENTER><IMG src="http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/market/images/020705_21.gif" alt="Chart 25" border="0"></CENTER>

<HR size=2 noshade>South Africa:

Export growth continues to support a healthy trade balance, with the May surplus touching R5.06 bn. vs. R3.84 bn. in Apr. May PPI was up 0.7% on the month and 14.9% on the year (+1.7% and +14.8% in Apr.), suggesting the worst of the inflationary surge is over, but the Reserve Bank is"still concerned" about price hikes in 2003.

Look for:
a slow feed of data to clarify Q2 performance, including Apr. retail sales (Jul. 3), May mining and mfg. (Jul. 9), and May M3 and credit growth (Jul. 2)



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Highlights der vergangenen Woche - verschiedene Märkte - Cosa, 06.07.2002, 14:08