Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- No more spending money from Uncle Sam - Cosa, 08.07.2002, 10:42
No more spending money from Uncle Sam
<font size="4">No more spending money from Uncle Sam.</FONT>
By Economic Group BMO from BMO Nesbitt Burns 07-08-2002
North American retail sales results have remained in a narrow"trading range" in recent
quarters (Chart 1). Surely, if this were the only information you had to go on, you would
not suspect that there was a recession last year. Having withstood the events of the past
two years, what would prompt consumers to cut spending in the year ahead?
<center> </center>
We are not as confident about the United States. Consumer spending data for May
confirmed that a flatter pattern was developing after months of extraordinary strength,
which was not due to job and wage growth. Rather, it was based on substantial income
support from the government. We first saw the summer spike in income last year due to
the rebate cheques (Chart 3). Then, lower taxes showed up big-time as a rush of refunds
during tax season this year. Disposable income was boosted to nearly 6% growth
year-to-year in May, compared with only 3% growth for personal income - the sum of
wages, salaries, dividends, etc. The gap between disposable income and personal
income was by far a record, except for a couple of one-month special-factor blips.
Personal income is 85% of GDP. So, a very substantial support for retailing is implied.
<center> </center>
Chart 4 shows a revenue decline of about $150 billion at an annual rate this year, just
from personal taxes alone. However, the CBO estimates that between $35 billion and
$40 billion of the lower receipts resulted from changes in the tax laws. The rest of the tax
decline must be caused by the weak economy. Thus, taxes might bounce back. For
example, taxes levied by states and localities will surely increase. Lower levels of
government have to raise new revenues to balance budgets as required by law (Chart 5).
This is not a good time for taxes to be rising faster than incomes.
<center> </center>
There has been a slowdown in Canadian income growth lately, but retailers should be
able to stay above the fray on this issue. Unlike the U.S. tax cut, which was substantial,
you need to get out a microscope to see much of any difference between Canadian
disposable income growth and personal income growth (Chart 6). Tax cuts, in other
words, did not boost Canadian spending power materially and the strong labour market
will keep income growth from decelerating further. The worry locally is that slower U.S.
growth will feed back by way of reduced Canadian exports to the U.S. That could happen
and is the major risk in the outlook. Still, the coast looks relatively clear for Canadian
retailers in the second half of 2002.
--------------------
Mal sehen, am Freitag dieser Woche werden die Einzelhandelsumsätze für den Juni veröffentlicht. Irgendwann sind die Steuersenkungen verpufft, die Umsätze im Mai waren schon arg schlecht und das double-dip Szenario ist noch längst nicht vom Tisch.
einen schönen Tag wünscht
Cosa
<center>
<HR>
</center>
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
