Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- ICH VERABSCHIEDE MICH... - JüKü, 27.04.2000, 00:29
- gute Besserung! (mT) - NickLeeson, 27.04.2000, 15:41
gute Besserung! (mT)
Seit einigen Tagen spekulieren wir über die (für viele von uns so rätselhafte) Schwäche des Euro. Das Spektrum der Erklärungsversuche ist breit und am besten gefallen hat mir bisher der Erklärungsansatz von dottore, daß amerikanische Großbanken in Schieflage geraten sind und nun in Europa liquidieren, um wieder flüssig zu werden. Problem: es gibt dafür keinerlei Hinweise.
Gerade eben habe ich nun auf Prudentbear.com eine Erklärung gelesen, die noch sehr viel besser ins Bild paßt:
"... And, furthermore, it’s our hunch that recent dollar strength has little to do with underlying fundamentals and, more likely, everything to do with market dynamics. Ironically, the abrupt swoon in NASDAQ may actually be providing significant temporary support for the dollar. Clearly, some of the major hedge funds have taken significant losses as the tech bubble has been pierced. Likely, some of these funds were short the dollar, perhaps believing that not only was the dollar poised to fall, but also that any meaningful break in NASDAQ would likely set off a precipitous dollar decline. Now, with the dollar rising in the face of heavy losses suffered from technology long positions, some funds have surely been forced to aggressively cover dollar short positions. Indeed, we hear talk that some of the savviest currency players around - some of the very same players that suffered through losses as they were caught in a short squeeze with the Thai baht only weeks before its fateful collapse - have been forced to cover dollar shorts. Also, we suspect that many major players that in the past provided liquidity in the currency markets are no longer major factors, and that the currency market is, similar to the US credit and stock market, susceptible to an abrupt loss of liquidity at the first sign of major dollar selling. We would also imagine that considerable recent dollar buying has been derivative related, with such being particularly vulnerable to an abrupt reversal. So, rather than celebrate the dollar’s recent stellar performance, we suggest pondering the ramifications of what we suspect to be inevitable faltering of liquidity in the currency markets generally."
Ich habe noch nie mit Optionsscheinen spekuliert, aber jetzt bin ich ernsthaft versucht, einen Put auf den Dollar zu riskieren.
Die Wirtschaftszahlen in New York scheinen nicht sonderlich gut ausgefallen sein. Wenn die obige Erklärung zutreffen sollte, dann bleibt wahrscheinlich nicht mehr viel Zeit.
gute Besserung wünscht Ihnen
NickLeeson
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