Re: Ã-l und Ã-laktien - Antwort

verfasst von yatri, 12.07.2002, 20:05

>Ã-l hielt sich die letzten Wochen stabil und steigt nun sogar weiter an. Die ganzen Ã-laktien sind jedoch (mit dem Gesamtmarkt) gen Süden. Wie paßt das zusammen?

Friday July 12, 9:05 am Eastern Time
Reuters Company News
Oil companies fight for profits as stock market slumps
By Paul Thomasch

NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) - War may be hell, but it can
also be the saving grace for oil companies.
U.S. President George W. Bush's war on terrorism and the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict have put a fire under crude oil
prices. At more than $26 a barrel, crude prices in the second
quarter ran about 30 percent above their historic average,
although they were slightly below year-ago levels.
That saved the major oil companies -- including Exxon Mobil
Corp., ChevronTexaco Corp., and Conoco Inc. -- from a
disastrous second quarter. To be sure, quarterly profits are
expected to be down a steep 36 percent because of a deep slump
in refining and marketing, but robust crude prices prevented
things from being even worse.
"The quarter was a tale of two cities," said Michael Young,
an analyst with Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co.
The problems the oil industry has experienced with refining
and marketing, the so-called downstream, aren't new: Poor
demand for jet fuel from airlines, mild weather and high raw
material costs. But the slump is not hitting the industry as
hard as it did in the first quarter, when profits were crushed
down 67 percent.
"I would be very surprised to see losses again in the
downstream, although it's going to be tough," said Fadel Gheit,
an analyst with Fahnestock & Co."These companies had every
negative going for them and not many positives."
Whether refining and marketing profits recover in the
quarters ahead rests largely on how much motorists drive this
summer and how cold the weather turns this winter.
Some analysts are betting on a turnaround, while most see
crude prices holding strong at least while the U.S. military
remains in Afghanistan and threatening military action in
Iraq.
By the third quarter, profits at major oil companies should
be down just 8 percent and by the fourth quarter they are
forecast to be up 54 percent compared to a year earlier.
"If you have to invest, you should look to Exxon Mobil or
BP," said Gheit."Your money might not grow, but rest assured
it's not going to be like a dot-com stock, especially with the
outlook for the commodity price."
Shares of the major oil companies far outperformed the
broader stock market in the quarter thanks to the war premium
carried by energy prices. But make no mistake, they still have
not done well.
The Standard & Poor's index of major oil companies dropped
about 4 percent in the period -- a reassuring move only when
compared to a nosedive in the broader stock market that took
the S&P 500 index (CBOE:^SPX - News) down 14 percent.
Fahnestock's Gheit, himself a former oil executive, takes a
sober view of the industry he now covers as an analyst.
"If you buy a basket of oil stocks you will be ahead of S&P
500 by at least double digits." said Gheit."But I cannot
encourage an individual investor to invest to lose 5 percent."
At the moment, only three of the 55 energy companies his
brokerage covers carry"buy" ratings. The remainder have"hold"
placed on them.
Still, Exxon Mobil, the world's No. 1 publicly traded
energy company, and other oil majors at least offer a safe
haven for investors shellshocked by accounting frauds.
If nothing else, said Gerard Klauer's Young,"energy has
been a great place to hide for the last several years."
Company 2Q '02 (estimate) 2Q '01 (actual)
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM - News) $0.47 $0.64
ChevronTexaco (NYSE:CVX - News) $1.37 $2.02
Conoco (NYSE:COC - News) $0.38 $0.95
Phillips (NYSE:P - News) $1.01 $2.33
Occidental (NYSE:OXY - News) $0.61 $1.25
Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO - News) $0.65 $1.88
Amerada Hess (NYSE:AHC - News) $1.93 $3.98
Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR - News) $0.33 $2.08
(All average estimates provided by Thomson First Call)


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gesamter Thread:

• Ã-l und Ã-laktien - Frage - McSpek, 12.07.2002, 15:27
  • Re: Ã-l und Ã-laktien - Antwort - yatri, 12.07.2002, 20:05
  • Re: Ã-l und Ã-laktien - Frage / @McSpek - JÃœKÃœ, 12.07.2002, 20:20
  • Re: Ã-l und Ã-laktien - Frage - KEEP-COOL, 12.07.2002, 20:38
    • Re: Ã-l und Ã-laktien - Frage - daxput, 12.07.2002, 21:14
      • Re: Ã-l und Ã-laktien - Frage - KEEP-COOL, 12.07.2002, 22:19
        • Re: Ã-l und Ã-laktien - Frage - daxput, 12.07.2002, 22:31
          • OMV - KEEP-COOL, 12.07.2002, 22:50
            • @KC - daxput, 12.07.2002, 23:18
              • Gibt es in Russland - Wasi, 12.07.2002, 23:28
              • Re: @daxput - wer kauft wen - KEEP-COOL, 13.07.2002, 18:33
                • Danke KC... - daxput, 13.07.2002, 18:40