Re: Saturn - Pluto Zyklus und zur Dauer der weiteren Baisse gab Merriman

verfasst von André, 15.07.2002, 20:24

am 15.07. nähere Erläuterungen, die sich mit den deprimierenden
fundamental begründeten Erwartungen hier im Bord sowie den Elliot
Langfristzyklen decken:

We have discussed the Saturn-Pluto opposition at great length over the past year. It not only correlated with the principles inherent in terrorist activities and accounting fraud at the major corporate levels, but it also has an historical correlation to a shift from budget surplus to budget deficits in government spending. In the"Across the Nation" column of the Detroit Free Press (via Reuters News) on Saturday, July 13, is a small article titled"Deficit Projections Rise to $165 Billion." The first sentence of this short article states,"The White House projected Friday that the federal deficit will reach $165 billion for the fiscal year, a 56% percent increase over earlier projections. The change is blamed on a drop in tax receipts from capital gains because of falling stock prices." According to the history of the Saturn-Pluto cycle, this is just the beginning of what could turn out to become an out-of-control monetary situation by the end of the decade. Contrary to popular belief, the United States does have a precedent for defaulting on its debt. It happened in 1842 during the Saturn-Pluto waning square, eight years after a Saturn-Pluto opposition in 1834. In 1834-35, the U.S. enjoyed a budget surplus as the stock market kept achieving new all-time highs, and no one thought the good times would ever end. Speculative fever brought about through new and exciting opportunities provided by advancements in communications (via railroad building across the USA) was rampant. But as with all speculative bubbles, that one too was burst by a combination of fraud, financial scams, and over-commitment of funds into investments that showed no profit at the time, but only hope for such in the future.<

The fact that the previous 4-year cycle low was broken in the S&P and NASDAQ means that the longer-term trends are now down - and will remain basically down - until they bottom. They are not due until the Saturn-Pluto cycle comes to either its waning square (end of this decade) or conjunction (middle of next decade). It requires a totally different investment approach, one designed to"preserve capital" more than seeking to appreciate capital through equity markets. This is the part of the Saturn-Pluto cycle where equity values do not tend to appreciate as much when inflation-adjusted figures are used, as do commodity-back investments. However, the exact time of the switchover is not precise, but only approximate. That is, during the phase from conjunction to opposition between Saturn-Pluto, equities are the place to be. They appreciate extremely well. But from the opposition to the conjunction, equities do not appreciate nearly as well, whereas sometime during that same part of that geocosmic cycle, commodity prices do.

However, the market is not likely to be straight down until the opposition, or even the waning square between Saturn and Pluto. In fact, as bad as things have seemed in the past few months, the worst is still probably not due until some time to come (maybe another 1-3 years). In the meantime, the breakdown in U.S. stock prices last week means that the probability is quite high that the 50-week cycle trough is trying to form with this current primary cycle. The current primary is already entering its 23rd week in the DJIA, and 20th week in the S&P. The normal primary cycle periodicity is 13-21 weeks, so one can see that it has already expanded beyond this in the DJIA. When the primary cycle expands or contracts, it is known as a"distortion." Distortions happen about 20% of the time - except when they coincide with longer-term cycles. When that happens, the probability of a distortion in the primary cycle jumps to 50%. We are in the time band for not only a 50-week cycle (with an orb of 38-62 weeks, as measured from last September 21), but also a 4-year cycle (due 16-25 months after the Presidential election, or March 2002-December 2003). In this respect, we should note that no primary cycle in the past 70 years has exceeded 29 weeks, and 92.75% of them unfold before the end of the 26th week. Therefore the probabilities are very high that this primary cycle will end sometime - anytime - in the next 3 weeks.

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<ul> ~ http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm</ul>
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gesamter Thread:

• Saturn - Pluto Zyklus und (Finanz) Wirtschaftliche Entwicklungstendenzen - - André, 15.07.2002, 20:13
  • Re: Saturn - Pluto Zyklus und zur Dauer der weiteren Baisse gab Merriman - André, 15.07.2002, 20:24