Corporate America's Shifting International Division of Labor

verfasst von Cosa, 18.07.2002, 10:44

Hi,

aus dem Global Economic Forum ein Artikel wo in der Welt us-amerikanische Firmen Mitarbeiter einstellen bzw. entlassen. Erstaunlich dann doch die Bedeutung Deutschlands bzw. die Möglichkeit von Entlassungen, die bei einem erneuten abtauchen der US-Wirtschaft weiter vorhanden ist.

<font size="4">Global: Corporate America's Shifting International Division of Labor </font>

Joe Quinlan/Rebecca McCaughrin (New York)


Sluggish global demand, excess capacity, plunging profitability, rising
security costs -- rarely have such daunting competitive forces converged
to produce such a challenging operating environment for US
manufacturing firms. In the face of these stiff headwinds, US firms are
scrambling to reconfigure their global workforces, closing plants, and
outsourcing more, while reallocating research and development functions
to other countries. The global operations of US multinationals are always
in flux, but even more so now.

Given today's economic and competitive realities, just where are US
manufacturing firms closing plants and opening new facilities? Where are
US firms hiring and firing globally? For clues, we compared the
manufacturing employment levels of US foreign affiliates
(majority-owned) in 1999 to US affiliate employment levels in 1990.

Shift from High-Wage to Low-Wage Nations

Reflecting the premium on skilled labor, the bulk of America's overseas
workforce has long been concentrated in developed nations. Indeed,
more than one-half of the 4.2 million manufacturing workers employed
by US foreign affiliates in 1999 worked in developed nations. The UK led
the way, where some 466,000 manufacturing workers were on the
payrolls of US affiliates in 1999. Germany ranked second, with 446,000
laborers collecting checks from US subsidiaries in 1999 --
notwithstanding the fact that Germany is home to some of the highest
wages globally. Canada ranked third, with US affiliates employing
431,000 manufacturing workers at the end of the decade.

In total, US foreign affiliates employed just over 1.3 million
manufacturing workers in the UK, Germany, and Canada in 1999,
roughly one-third more than the combined number of workers employed
by affiliates in Mexico, Brazil, and China in the same year. On the
surface, then, US manufacturers prefer to hire in high-wage developed
nations. Or do they?

America's global manufacturing workforce is in flux, with more jobs
increasingly being created in low-wage developing nations. Manufacturing
employment in developed nations expanded by only 7.6% between
1999 and 1990, but it soared 60% in the developing nations. Over the
same period, manufacturing employment in the US fell 3.1%. Among
the developed nations of Europe, the peripheral and low-wage countries
of Ireland and Spain recorded the sharpest employment gains over the
1990s, with affiliate manufacturing employment in Ireland surging by
63% on account of rising US technology investment. Spain, a low-cost
manufacturer of auto parts and components, experienced a 22% jump in
affiliate employment over the same period. Meanwhile, employment
levels in the Netherlands and the UK remained relatively flat, while US
affiliates cut their manufacturing workforces by 6% in Italy over the
1990s. US firms also pared their manufacturing workforces in Japan in
the 1990s, with high operating costs and weak growth triggering an 8.3%
decline in affiliate employment.

The Flip in Nafta Employment

Nafta critics are quick to blame Mexico for the loss of manufacturing jobs
in the US, and with some justification. Evidence does suggest that some
job displacement in the US has occurred following the establishment of
Nafta, although the arguments on the impact of cheap labor in Mexico
ignore the employment effects in Canada. It's not just US workers who
have lost out to lower wages in Mexico. We strongly suspect Canada has,
too, as more US firms have shifted plants and production southward over
the past decade. In 1990, US affiliate manufacturing jobs were skewed
toward Canada, a trend not surprising given that the US and Canada had
agreed to a free trade agreement in the late 1980s in advance of Nafta.
In 1990, US affiliates employed nearly 30% more manufacturing workers
in Canada than in Mexico. Over the last decade, however, affiliate
employment levels in Canada remained stagnant, while affiliate
employment levels in Mexico soared, rising from 330,000 at the start of
the decade to 566,000 by 1999.

Mexico surpassed other countries in US manufacturing employment
during the 1990s. Ranked fourth in affiliate manufacturing employment
in 1990, Mexico also surged ahead of Germany and the UK over the
same period. While affiliate employment levels in Mexico have been
trimmed over the past few years due to weak US economic activity,
Mexico, remains the largest overseas employment base for US
manufacturers.

Shift in Employment among Developing Nations

US affiliate manufacturing employment is not only shifting from
developed to developing nations; it is also shifting within developing
nations. In 1990, for instance, two-thirds of the roughly 1.2 million
manufacturing workers in developing nations worked for US affiliates in
Latin America. Over the 1990s, however, corporate America's
manufacturing reach in developing nations became more diverse. US
manufacturing capabilities expanded to Asia and central Europe, driving
Latin America's employment share down to 52% by 1999. In Brazil, US
manufacturing employment levels contracted by nearly 20% as US firms
consolidated their Brazilian production facilities. The creation of Mercosur
allowed US firms to rationalize production between Argentina and Brazil,
leading to employment cuts in Brazil and a 36% jump in employment in
Argentina over the last decade.

While cutting back in Brazil, US firms were aggressively hiring in central
Europe and Asia. Central Europe's share of affiliate employment in the
developing nations jumped from virtually zero in 1990 to nearly 10% by
1999. Developing Asia's share of affiliate employment among the
developing nations rose from 30% in 1990 to nearly 35% in 1999, a rise
fueled primarily by expanding employment levels in China.

The rise in US manufacturing employment in China over the past decade
has been staggering. In 1990, China accounted for only 3% of the total
of manufacturing workers employed in developing Asia by US
subsidiaries. By 1999, roughly 193,000 Chinese manufacturing workers,
or 30% of the US affiliate labor force in Asia Ex-Japan, were on the
payrolls of US subsidiaries, up from just 10,000 in 1990. Among the
developing nations, only Mexico and Brazil have more US-employed
manufacturing workers, although we suspect China will surpass Brazil in
the not-too-distant future.

Bottom Line

A snapshot of corporate America's global workforce reveals some very
powerful dynamics. How these forces play out will have a significant
impact on US trade flows and US corporate profitability. It's not just US
workers at home who are at risk of US firms shifting production to
low-cost sites like Mexico and China. British, German, Japanese, and
other workers employed by US affiliates abroad are under the same
threat.

Gruss
Cosa

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• Corporate America's Shifting International Division of Labor - Cosa, 18.07.2002, 10:44