Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- nochmal - United States: Greenspan Recap - Cosa, 18.07.2002, 11:17
- Auch der Blödmann wird kapiert haben, das weitere 10-20 % runter im Dollar - LenzHannover, 18.07.2002, 14:23
nochmal - United States: Greenspan Recap
Hi,
ist zwar schon ein paar Tage her, aber den Kommentar stelle ich trotzdem rein.
Irgendwie habe ich ein ganz ungutes Gefühl wie zum einen Greenspan in seiner Rede die Themen gewichtet hat bzw. die in der Befragung Raum bekamen und zum anderen wie Bush sich vor Kurzem zur Unternehmensführung bzw. dem Bilanzierungsverhalten geäussert hat.
Dass Grennspan sich zur Unternehmensführung äusserte war klar, aber die Hälfte der Zeit? Und Bush Ansprache kann man m. E. als Appell an in- wie ausländische Investoren werten ihr Geld nicht von den Aktienmärkten oder aus den USA abzuziehen.
Ergo, wenn diese beiden Herren sich so ins Zeug werfen, muss irgendwas kurz vorm zusammenklappen stehen. Mögliche Kandidaten gibt's ja reihenweise.
<font size="4"> United States: Greenspan Recap </font>
David Greenlaw (New York)
Less Upbeat than Expected
In his semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday, Fed
Chairman Alan Greenspan painted a mixed picture of the prospects for
the US economy. Mr. Greenspan indicated that"the fundamentals are in
place for a return to sustained healthy growth." However, he also warned
that the recent weakness in equity prices will have a negative spillover
effect on the economy. And he cautioned that policy makers are still
confronted by considerable uncertainties, such as prospects for capital
spending and corporate profits, the possibility of additional revelations
of corporate malfeasance, global political risks, and further terrorist
strikes. In general, the tone of the testimony was a bit less upbeat than
we had expected.
Solid Baseline Forecast, but Asymmetrical Risks
The FOMC's economic forecasts, released in conjunction with the
testimony, show that officials look for +3.5% average GDP growth during
both the second half of 2002 and the four quarters of 2003. The
unemployment rate is expected to drift down from 5.9% at present to
the 5.25% to 5.5% range by the end of 2003. Meanwhile, inflation as
measured by the PCE deflator is projected to hold at a rate of 1.5% to
1.75%. So it appears that the Fed's baseline case calls for a reasonably
solid economic recovery. The problem is that the risks seem to be
asymmetrically distributed around the baseline.
Fed on Hold until Uncertainties Start to Dissipate
On the policy front, Mr. Greenspan noted that the current very low level
of the funds rate is not consistent with the Fed's long-run goals of
sustained economic growth and price stability, repeating a point that he
and other FOMC members have made previously. But with inflation
pressures contained, he hinted that the accommodative stance of policy
can be sustained until the"considerable uncertainties" confronting the
Fed begin to dissipate. Clearly, Mr. Greenspan is signaling that he
expects policy to be on hold for quite some time to come.
Emphasis on Corporate Governance, but Few Policy Specifics
From our standpoint, the most surprising aspect of the testimony was
the lengthy discussion of the corporate governance issue -- almost half
of the text was devoted to this topic. Mr. Greenspan didn't really offer
any specific policy prescriptions nor did he provide any new insights on
how these problems arose (for example, he noted that the root cause of
the breakdown in corporate governance was that the sharply rising stock
market of the 1990s created opportunities for"avarice"). The Fed chief
observed that while the character of corporate officers cannot be directly
addressed via legislation, measures could be enacted that alter the
incentives and penalties. At the same time, Mr. Greenspan cautioned
against overregulating because it could"distort the efficient flow of
capital." Specifically, he indicated that market forces would eventually
lead companies to move toward expensing of stock options.
On Wednesday morning, Mr. Greenspan will give a repeat performance
before the House Financial Services Committee. Given the close
proximity of the appearances, the second round is unlikely to include
any market-moving revelations.
Gruss
Cosa
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