Lesefruechte des heutigen Tages aus englischsprachigen Foren

verfasst von netrader, 20.07.2002, 22:11

Anbei einige Lesefruechte des heutigen Tages aus englischsprachigen Foren mit Quellenangaben:

Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland
That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it!
July 19, 2002
Auszug:
It appears the worst-case scenario is unfolding right before our eyes.
In the past, we have often used flood insurance as an analogy for the derivatives market. Inexpensive and readily available flood insurance led to a building boom along the river. A long drought made writing flood policies extremely profitable, and speculators rushed into the marketplace. The building boom along the river paralleled the Bubble in writing flood insurance. There were a few instances when rain started to come down pretty hard, and the speculators watched nervously as the local authorities constructed makeshift levees that held the floodwaters at bay. But as soon as the weather cleared the emboldened speculators became only more aggressive, and more luxurious structures were built, only closer to the waterway. The authorities were determined to do whatever necessary to sustain the building boom, and liked to trumpet how good it had become in building levees. They were ready to move into action with the first raindrops, and were adored by the insurance companies, speculators and homeowners.
Well, today torrential rain is falling, the dikes are giving way, and everyone is getting very nervous - homeowners and those that have been peddling insurance. The authorities maintain a brave face. The speculators always planned on going to the reinsurance market when the heavy rains began to fall, but that market now has a deluge of buyers and no willing writers of flood protection. The flood insurance market is “dislocated,” with players basically stuck with the exposure they have written. Various parties are all the sudden very interested in the financial wherewithal of the cadre of marketplace participants (counterparties). The “conservative” bankers that lent against the homes on the river are in a panic and won’t be financing anymore riverfront building. Confidence in the marketplace is waning rapidly, which only exacerbates the rush to dump exposure to a potential flood. With the flood insurance market in taters, the building boom is doomed.
The closer the scrutiny, the more apparent that, in the event of a flood, there is going to be a very serious problem - economic and financial. The bottom line is that incredible amounts of inadvisable building (“risk creation”) have occurred over the past few years, and there is nothing that can be done to reduce risk at this point. Unfortunately, the insurance “industry” has little in the way of the necessary financial resources in the event of a flood, and there is little that can be done about this either. It’s a severe structural problem - both for the financial system and the real economy. At the same time, the local authorities have continued to throw additional sandbags on top of fragile levees, with no one wanting to ponder the dire consequences if this frail structure gives way. They say everything is fine, as it always has been. The nervous homeowners are somewhat comforted, but those in the insurance market know otherwise. They are left to pray that it stops raining.



Christian (7/20/02; 12:55:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 81009)
Conspiracy thinking
Conspiracy to supress the price of gold = Known off balance sheet derivative debt in the USA = $152 Trillion. Half or $76 Trillion is placed to serve as on balance sheet insurance and the other half $76 Trillion is invested in off balance sheet revenue enhancement units. Physical gold is fractionalized to serve as reserves for paper gold just like bank C.D.'s are fractionalized to serve as reserves for loans. All money is debt money in our system. There is no other source of money except to borrow it into existence. Income cannot be dollarized except by becoming more debt. No dollars are issued in non-debt form. However gold in debt free hands can be used as a source of money with the use of derivatives i.e. futures/forwards/option format. Public gold is now mostly in private hands who use the futures/forwards/option format to turn their holdings that never get moved into a paper format to make loans with. Corporations, state governments and even the federal government borrow gold in paper form and off balance sheet and pay the interest in metal which has to be purchased in the open market. This debt is a off balance sheet liability in order to hide debt in order to enhance revenue. These off balance sheet debt does not show up as an expense and are mostly used and reported as cash flow. And some of this so called cash flow which is really a off balance sheet paper gold loan that can be used to buy shares of its own stock. Example of this is IBM. Their off balance sheet paper gold debt is larger then the value of their entire stock float. I wish I could do that with my checkbook. I need an off balance sheet loan to float my checkbook. The off balance sheet physical gold loans represented by paper gold loans are now two times larger then all fiat debt. Fiat Federal debt = $6 trillion, private and corporate debt = $32 trillion while off balance sheet corporate, state, federal gold or silver debt = $76 trillion.


Yahoo/pdg-board
Gold - 1
by: deepblue_111 07/19/02 07:24 pm
Msg: 38934 of 38941
For years the price of gold -- the ultimate smoke alarm signaling a failing economy -- has been artificially suppressed by paper traders who are capable of flooding the commodities markets with gold future options when the price needs to be kept low. Why low? Because rising gold prices have always signaled inflation and/or a lack of faith in the financial markets. Years of efforts by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, or GATA, while not being successful at halting or fully exposing the artificial manipulation of gold prices by the Federal Reserve, major banks, the Bank of International Settlements and major commodities traders, have opened the eyes of many to overt manipulations in gold pricing.

As one investment banker told me recently, there is five times more paper gold than there is actual gold out of the ground. If gold prices ever pop they ll be out of sight.

Over the past year, certainly since 9-11, gold prices have often moved in exactly the opposite direction (lower) from what conditions would dictate. The financial effort required to do this requires the support of powerful state banking institutions and cash to service the paper. Gold has risen in price from around $280 an ounce nine months ago to a high of around $327 in recent weeks. That s a return on investment of 16 percent -- far better than the Dow has done this year.

In our last economic bulletin FTW noted that the Dow had lost close to 900 points. Since March of this year it had lost, before the profit-seeking 300-point rally of July 5, almost 1,600 points. Yet even as the economic news worsened last week, the price of gold peaked and then started to fall. As of this writing it sits at $312 an ounce. The gold price dropped as the worst economic news was hitting the streets. Why?

As one astute gold watcher, Jay Taylor, summed it up in an October 2000 newsletter, Every single time there is concern about a stock market debacle, gold is bombed. Always.

On June 5 GATA described one of the recent moves to fiddle with gold prices. MiningWeb.com has just reported an explanation for the plunge in the gold price today. The plunge, MiningWeb says, came in the wake of a large after-market trade in New York last night, with an unnamed fund liquidating 5,000 futures contracts, a move which knocked the price first to $326/oz, then to $324/oz, and finally to $321/oz, &The sale was executed using the Access system on Comex, which allows for anonymous trading by large funds.

There are unmistakable signs of market manipulation now with regards to both gold and stocks. Who is it that keeps the markets from correcting, only making the inevitable crash that much worse? It s called the Plunge Protection Team, or PPT. And now it has to have the liquidity to flood both the gold and the stock markets with enough cash to keep the bubbles from bursting. This, at the same time that major banks like J.P. Morgan/Chase and Citigroup sit atop huge derivatives bubbles that have been estimated at between $150 trillion and $300 trillion. Most major U.S. banks have heavy exposure as a result of the mushrooming financial scandals. All of these bubbles require cash, and this is the liquidity Mr. Soros is rightly worried about.

Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has been challenging the gold manipulation for years. He has been one of the few fiscally sane voices anywhere on Capitol Hill. His website has a listing of his writings and much needed legislation he has or is sponsoring.



The Plunge Protection Team - 1
by: deepblue_111 07/19/02 07:41 pm
Msg: 38936 of 38941
Only recently have there been signs that the PPT is also working in the U.S. equity (stock) markets.

The Washington Post acknowledged the existence of a select group of four who could and would intervene in markets to prevent massive capital flight and a run on shares that would cause an economic collapse if there weren't enough cash to pay out during a massive sell off. In his Feb. 23, 1997 story headed Plunge Protection Team, Post reporter Brett Fromson identified the Federal Reserve chairman, the Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, the chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, and the secretary of the Treasury as the team s key players. The intervention of the team in the 1998 crash of Long Term Capital Management, after it became wildly overexposed in the gold market, revealed that private institutions such as Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Merrill Lynch and other major banks could be involved as well.

Fromson quoted a former team member as saying, In a crisis, a lot of deference is paid to the Fed. They are the only ones with any money. Or, I might add, the ability to print it.

Pointing to the 1987 stock market crash, the single largest crash in history, Fromson observed, The Fed kept the markets going by flooding the banking system with reserves and stating publicly that it was ready to extend loans to important financial institutions, if needed.

On April 5, 2000 New York Post reporter John Crudele reported that the stock market had turned back from the abyss. After a 500-point drop that looked like it was leading to a meltdown, &someone started buying large amounts of stock index futures contracts through two major brokerage firms -- Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch &Unless the brokers tell, there is no way of knowing which of their clients were making the purchases. Then the market rebounded.

Calling it the PPT, Crudele both referred to the 1997 Washington Post story and suggested that private banks were acting as team captains.

Gold activist David Guyatt, relying on information obtained from GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, pointed to the PPT in October 2000. The hand of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) is clearly visible for the first time. The entire short gold play over the last few years is a technique that has been used to prop up key stocks and fund futures operations. In the simplest form it works like this. Borrow (at negligible interest rates) someone's [America's, Germany's, Britain's, Goldman Sachs ] gold and sell it in the market. This gives a handsome pool of near-interest-free dollar cash. Whenever the stock market looks shaky, or key stocks come under pressure, dive in and buy, buy, buy.

But it is not only necessary to manipulate the stock market to succeed. It is also necessary to manipulate the gold price and keep the price of gold below the price PPT sold the leased gold for &This is a game of double jeopardy. The problem the PPT now have is that there is virtually no more official gold left to borrow, wrote Guyatt.

The causes of this intervention were a pending NASDAQ crash and the imminent downgrading of IBM and Intel stocks.

And the PPT s hand has been noted recently from as far away as Australia. Progressive Review Editor Sam Smith recently quoted a story by Richard Bromby of the Australian Financial Review:

At 2:32 Wednesday [June 26, 2002], New York time, something extraordinary happened at the corner of Wall and Broad streets. The New York Stock Exchange s Dow Jones industrial index -- struggling since the opening bell after the WorldCom fraud revelations -- threw off its problems. From an intraday low of 8,926.6, the Dow shot skywards to its high of 9,160 at 3:29 PM &Could it be the work of the much talked about, but never seen, Plunge Protection Team? There is a belief that this team represents a powerful and secretive hand that is ready to act at any time the Dow looks ready to tank big-time.

London s Observer newspaper last October reported it had information the plunge team was preparing to spend billions of dollars to avert a repeat of 1929 and 1987.

The problem is clear: With a strong dollar the PPT has demonstrated that it has enough cash to suppress gold prices or to save the stock market. It may not have enough cash to do both -- especially if the dollar were to suddenly lose its value. Then, all of the chickens that have been locked out will come home to roost with a vengeance.

As The International Forecaster reported on April 26, The American consumer has run out of credit and buying power &All bets are off if the housing and credit bubbles break and that s a distinct possibility &Debtor s prison is drawing nearer. House and Senate conferences are deciding on a new set of rules for Chapter 7 bankruptcy &If the Plunge Protection Team weren t manipulating the market with all these scandals, the Dow would already be at 4,500.




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gesamter Thread:

• Lesefruechte des heutigen Tages aus englischsprachigen Foren - netrader, 20.07.2002, 22:11
  • PPT: Gibts kein Gold mehr zu verkaufen, dann gibts auch keins mehr zu kaufen! - Wal Buchenberg, 21.07.2002, 07:58
    • Re: PPT: Gibts kein Gold mehr zu verkaufen, dann gibts auch keins mehr zu kaufen! - Oldy, 21.07.2002, 08:51
      • Oldy und sein Problem mit dem Silber - wasil, 21.07.2002, 10:54
    • Re: Der Planet besteht nicht nur aus USA und seinen westlichen Vasallenstaaten (owT) - kingsolomon, 21.07.2002, 10:46
      • Re: Der Planet besteht nicht nur aus USA und seinen westlichen Vasallenstaaten (owT) - Euklid, 21.07.2002, 11:00
      • Mensch, Du hast aber eine alte Landkarte ;) (owT) - Turon, 21.07.2002, 12:56
        • Re: Du siehst das zu pessimistisch - kingsolomon, 21.07.2002, 18:50
    • Tagesförderung: 250.000 Unzen - und gerne mehr - the sky is the limit - Fürst Luschi, 21.07.2002, 13:56
    • Wer sagt denn, daß keines mehr verkauft wird?? - Diogenes, 21.07.2002, 14:15