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Mix-Ansicht- Dow = 110.000 - endlich wieder erfrischender Optimismus - Erwin, 18.09.2000, 21:43
- Re: Dow = 110.000 - endlich wieder erfrischender Optimismus - JüKü, 18.09.2000, 23:58
Dow = 110.000 - endlich wieder erfrischender Optimismus
Passt nicht ganz zur aktuellen Lage
am Markt - aber was soll´s:
Immerhin lag der Mann schon einmal
richtig = Trefferqoute 100%
Wer kann das schon von sich behaupten.
Alle Bären bitte ab in den Zoo!
Dow"to soar to 110,000 by 2025'
Yale don, who in 1974 had forecast that the index would reach 10,000 last year, sticks his neck out again
BEAVER CREEK (Colorado) -- While day trading captures the headlines and investors check their portfolios daily on the Internet, others are looking further down the road to see where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will head.
One of them, Mr Roger Ibbotson, of Yale University and Ibbotson Associates of New York and Chicago, forecasts that the Dow will rise to, hang on to your hats, 110,000 by 2025.
Crazy, you say?
Mr Ibbotson was the same man who in 1974, when the Dow stood at 851, had forecast that the index would reach 10,000 last year. The Dow closed 160.47 points, or 1.45 per cent, lower at 10,927 last Friday.
""Over the long run, stocks will outperform money markets or bonds,'' he said last Friday, after giving a keynote address at an investment conference sponsored by the Burridge Centre for Security Analysis and Valuation at the University of Colorado's College of Business.
But he was quick to add that his 2025 forecast was""just a probability -- it's not guaranteed''.
He based his estimate on stock market gains of about 12 per cent a year -- far short of the 20 per cent-plus returns that some investors had been used to and thought was their due.
""It was sort of hard to comprehend. They were all asking when it was going to go to 1,000 points and I said it would go to 10,000 points,'' Mr Ibbotson said, looking back at his forecast of 25 years ago right after a big stock market decline.
He pointed out that 25 years was not an eon away when it comes to planning for retirement.
""That's you -- that's your planning -- 25 years.''
His forecast should make it easier for investors who have not taken advantage of the current bull market to jump in.
""The game isn't over. It's as good to start now as anytime. The next 25 years is going to be a lot like the last 25 years.''
But for the investor who wants to put everything in stocks, he has a note of caution.""You need to diversify. If you can afford the risk -- go more into stocks.''
Age, wealth, cashflow needs and the ability to take risk all go into the percentage of stocks a person should have in a portfolio, along with real estate, cash and bonds.
He does not expect a straight line up, noting that his forecast model, which used the past 75 years of data, included the Great Depression.
""Nothing steady about it -- that's the key. If it were steady growth, it wouldn't grow that fast.'' --Reuters
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