Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- More Bottom Confirmation - leibovitz, 21.08.2002, 08:08
More Bottom Confirmation
-->Yesterday’s advance brought the S&P500, Dow Industrials and NASDAQ Composite above their respective 50-day moving averages, a favorable technical development. And it generated a bullish thrust signal on our McClellan Oscillator indicator shown in the top chart below, its first such signal since the market recovery in 1998. This signal follows the extreme volatility signal and “Double 9-to-1” buy signal announced in the July 30 th Chart of the Day, a buy signal from our indicator based on the new highs and new lows of the stocks that comprise the NDR Institutional Index SM (bottom chart), buy signals from the indicators on charts NDRII5 and NDRII6 (discussed in Ned’s NDR II SM Research ofAugust 9 th ), and bottom confirmation readings from two models that, along with the McClellan Oscillator, we have been watching to confirm that the bottoming process has given way to a sustainable uptrend - the direction of Big Mo (S074), which is now higher than its level of five weeks ago, and our Nine-Indicator Model, now well into its bullish mode at 83% S02000). Also supporting the prospects for continued market strength is the Stock/Bond component (AA505) of our recently rebuilt BalancedAccount Model (AA500), which calls for 62% in stocks - that’s in line with our recommended allocation of 65% stocks (10% overweight), 35% bonds (market-weight), and 0% cash (10% underweight). Now as a stop-loss, we are using a Stock/Bond model reading that’s 10% below our current allocation - - i.e., we will drop our equity exposure if the model drops below 55%, in turn affecting the three-way allocation recommended by the broader model. On the other hand, the bullish case will strengthen further if the model’s stock allocation continues to rise and if report SSF_14 shows bottom confirmation signals on more than half of its 10 indicators. Those that appear closest to joining the McClellan Oscillator,
directional Big Mo, and Nine-Indicator Model are the indicators on charts S183, S0233 and S0234. --TimHayes,CMT
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