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Mix-Ansicht- Etwas Honig für Bären - Stocks Haven't Hit Bottom - Cosa, 22.08.2002, 10:36
Etwas Honig für Bären - Stocks Haven't Hit Bottom
-->Moin,
nun von einer bearischen Seite kann man nichts anderes erwarten, aber es beruhigt wohl Putbesitzer.
<font size="4">Stocks Haven't Hit Bottom</font>
One of the key tools of market analysis in addition to valuation, the economy, and monetary
policy is to determine what the conventional wisdom is at any point in time, and then take the
opposite point of view. We, too, believe that this a valid factor to consider in timing the
movement of stocks. After all, market tops are made on a plethora of good news while bottoms
are made on gloom and doom. The problem, though, is determining what the conventional
wisdom is at any given moment - and that's not easy.
The most common mistakes many analysts make after a significant market decline is to declare
a bottom based on items such as the picture of a bear on a magazine cover, the wide
dissemination of bad news in the media, random pessimistic quotes from various sources, and
the attribution of a minority bearish view to the majority. In our view this is a simplistic
approach that is subject to selective choosing of arbitrary items that support the analyst's
pre-conceived notions. For instance, although a bear may appear on the magazine cover, the
article inside may actually be quite optimistic. Similarly, the dissemination of bad news or a
random negative quote doesn?t mean that the majority of investors have actually reduced their
exposure to equities, and doesn't even mean that the majority is bearish.
We point these things out now since so many market strategists are saying that they are bullish
based on what they see as a massive selloff, bad news and unrelenting gloom. In our view this
is not the case. True, the major averages are well down from their peaks, but the S&P 500 is
still selling at 34 times earnings, indicating continued optimism on the part of investors. The
average P/E over the past 75 years is 15, while the average at major market bottoms is
10-to-12. Equity mutual funds still have only 4.8% of their assets in cash as opposed to
10-to-13% at past market troughs. Only 37% of the advisors in the Investor's Intelligence
Survey are bearish compared to 60% or more at previous bottoms. The Merrill Lynch tally of
Wall Street strategist recommendations shows record allocations to stocks. The ISI survey of
professional money mangers similarly indicates relatively high holdings of equities in their actual
portfolios. Anecdotally, when we express our bearish views, we find that we are still in a
minority. For all those reasons and more (see our previous comments) we believe that a bottom
has not been reached, and that the market is headed far lower.
Quelle: comstocks.com, Tageskommentar
einen schönen Tag wünscht
Cosa
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